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COST OF WAR; PRICE OF PEACE

COST OF WAR; PRICE OF PEACE. June 10, 1967. 10,000 casualties in Sinai The Sinai Peninsula occupied Oil fields and tourism The Suez Canal closed Income from transit fees Immediate threat to port cities such as Ismailiya Costs to state and loss of revenue. The Idea of an Arab Nation.

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COST OF WAR; PRICE OF PEACE

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  1. COST OF WAR; PRICE OF PEACE

  2. June 10, 1967 • 10,000 casualties in Sinai • The Sinai Peninsula occupied • Oil fields and tourism • The Suez Canal closed • Income from transit fees • Immediate threat to port cities such as Ismailiya • Costs to state and loss of revenue

  3. The Idea of an Arab Nation • A POPULAR PERCEPTION OF COMMON CULTURE ROOTED IN LANGUAGE, RELIGION, AND HISTORICAL INSTITUTIONS • A STRATEGIC OPTION FOR STATES ENGAGED IN CONFLICT WITH A STATE WHOSE CULTURE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT • A POLITICAL PROJECT BY A PARTY TO UNIFY THE COMMUNITIES THAT MADE UP THE POPULATIONS OF GREATER SYRIA AND IRAQ.

  4. Egyptian Nationalism • Isolated Nile Valley • Pharaonic artifacts • Egypt as cradle of monotheism • The struggle against British colonial rule • Egypt as hegemon

  5. Return of Sinai • Negotiation • What would Israel want in return • Force • Required re-equipping Egyptian army • Coalition with other Arab states

  6. May 1970 • Anwar Sadat replaces Nasser • Was the USSR the best ally for Egypt?

  7. War of Attrition • March 1969-1970 • Artillery duels • Israeli bombing of Egyptian heartland • Rogers talks • Based on UNSC 242 • Envisaged land for peace • US bureaucratic conflict (Kissinger v. Rogers) • Strategic values v. peace

  8. Pro-soviet moves -1970 • Egyptian rearmament with Soviet help • Sadat signs Egypt-USSR friendship treaty

  9. Anti-Soviet moves • July 1971 – Sadat sends Soviet advisors home • Attempts to gain Kissinger’s attention

  10. 1973 • Sadat seems to have discounted war • Secret negotiations with Syria for a unified attack on Israel • Sadat misleads the Syrians into believing he planned to threaten the Israeli homeland

  11. 1973 War • Massive Egyptian assault across canal • Syrian attack on Golan nearly reaches into Israel • Both sides required massive re-supply • Egyptian strategy allowed Israel to separate fronts and also penetrate Egyptian lines

  12. The US intervenes • Kissinger’s Shuttle diplomacy • Limited steps rather than comprehensive settlement • Partial disengagement in Sinai and return of Egypt to the East Bank of the canal

  13. Social unrest in Egypt • Demonstrations in Shubra al-Khaima and Mahallah al-Kubra in 1975-6 • January 1 1976 – Downtown Cairo taken over by workers from Helwan

  14. Fiscal collapse • Costs of war and social subsidies had drained the treasury • The International Monetary Fund insisted on budgetary stabilization • Government lifts subsidies on flour, rice, cooking oil, sugar, bread, and butane gas

  15. Total loss of control • Spontaneous riots broke out and government lost control of downtown Cairo

  16. Infitah • Government seeks to integrate Egypt into regional labor markets • Allows Egyptians to leave in search of employment • Hopes to attract foreign investment • All of these require an end to the war footing of the economy and society

  17. A “peace dividend” • Remittances from workers abroad • Access to oil revenues from Sinai • Transit fees from the Suez Canal • Renewal of tourism industry

  18. Sadat’s trip to Jerusalem • Designed to “break the taboo” • Open negotiations with Israel to achieve Egyptian—not Arab—goals • Reassure Israelis

  19. External support still needed • Final Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty required Carter’s significant involvement • US has to guarantee both sides of the other’s good behavior • US had to provide financial support

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