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World Energy Outlook 2007: Key Trends and Challenges

World Energy Outlook 2007: Key Trends and Challenges. Centurelli Raffaella , International Chamber of Commerce , 21st October 2008. The World Energy Outlook. Annual publication by the Economic Analysis Division of the IEA World Energy Outlook Series: World Energy Outlook 2002

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World Energy Outlook 2007: Key Trends and Challenges

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  1. World Energy Outlook 2007:Key Trends and Challenges Centurelli Raffaella, International Chamber of Commerce, 21st October 2008

  2. The World Energy Outlook • Annual publication by the Economic Analysis Division of the IEA • World Energy Outlook Series: • World Energy Outlook 2002 • World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights: World Energy Investment Outlook • World Energy Outlook 2004 • World Energy Outlook 2005: Middle East & North Africa Insights • World Energy Outlook 2006 • World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights • World Energy Outlook 2008 (Launch in London 12th November)

  3. Reference Scenario

  4. Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Reference Scenario:World Primary Energy Demand 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 billion tonnes of oil equivalent billion tonnes of oil equivalent 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

  5. 100% Rest of the world India China 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Total energy Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Power sector investments Reference Scenario: The Emerging Giants of World Energy Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends

  6. 120 Other developing countries Middle East 100 India China 80 Transition Economies OECD mb/d 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Reference Scenario:World Oil Demand Oil demand increases most rapidly in China, India & other developing countries

  7. 18 16 14 12 Overtake United States 10 million 8 6 Overtake Japan 4 Overtake Germany 2 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 The Main Driver for Oil Demand: Transport sector New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales in China China’s oil imports reach 13 mb/d in 2030 as car ownership jumps to 140 per 1 000 people from 20 today

  8. Power generation Other 4 000 TE Other OECD 3 500 EU27 3 000 Japan US 2 500 Other DC Mtoe 2 000 India China 1 500 1 000 500 0 2005 2030 2005 2030 Reference Scenario:Primary Coal Demand by Region China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors

  9. 50 42 Gt 45 40 +57% tonnes 35 27 Gt 30 billion 25 20 15 10 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Reference Scenario:Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Global emissions rise inexorably on current policies, driven mainly by China, India & other developing countries

  10. 2006-2030 Reference Scenario: China & India in Global CO2 Emissions Cumulative Energy-Related CO2 Emissions United States European Union Japan China 1900-2005 India 0 100 200 300 400 500 billion tonnes Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in 2005-2030 comes from China & India

  11. 7 Existing New to 2015 6 New 2015-2030 5 Gt of CO2 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2006 2030 2050 2070 2090 Reference Scenario:The importance of time: CO2 Emissions from China's Coal-fired Power Plants Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology and largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond

  12. Alternative Policy Scenario

  13. Mapping an Alternative Energy Future • Reference Scenario trends are not set in stone • The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses impact of government policies under consideration • Responds to call to IEA from G8 & IEA ministers • To “advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" • Macroeconomic, population & oil/gas price assumptions are as per the Reference Scenario

  14. Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Primary Fossil-Fuel Demand 2 500 2 500 Savings compared with the Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario 2 000 2 000 1 500 1 500 1 849 1 849 Mtce Mtce Mtoe Mtoe 608 608 bcm bcm 14.0 mb/d 14.0 mb/d 1 000 1 000 1 316 1 316 bcm bcm 500 500 17.6 mb/d 17.6 mb/d 1 154 1 154 Mtce Mtce 0 0 Coal Coal Oil Oil Gas Gas Coal demand falls most relative to the Reference Scenario, but demand for each fossil fuel still increases through to 2030

  15. Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 50 45 42 Gt Reference Scenario 40 19% tonnes (Gt) 34 Gt 35 27 Gt 30 billion Alternative Policy Scenario 25 20 15 10 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global emissions grow less than half as fast as in the Reference Scenario, stabilising in the 2020s

  16. Implications for Global Climate • Reference Scenarios trends are consistent with dramatic climate effects • Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases would rise to 850 ppm of CO2-equivalent • Implies a rise in global average temperature of more than 4.9 ºC above pre-industrial levels • Increase in concentration & temperature is much less marked in the Alternative Policy Scenario • Concentration rises to 550 ppm & temperature by 3ºC • The most ambitious target: • Limiting the rise in Temperature to 2 ºC - concentration in the range of 445-490 ppm • The 450 Scenario investigated in WEO 08!

  17. Conclusions • Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path • China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size • Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system • New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution • Next 10 years are critical • The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid • Technology will be “locked-in” for decades • Growing tightness in oil & gas markets • Challenge is global so solutions must be global

  18. World Energy Outlook 2008

  19. World Energy Outlook 2008: Outline • New set of baseline projections to 2030 • Demand, production & trade • Investment • CO2 & other GHG emissions • In-depth analysis of headline issues • Oil supply prospects • Post-2012 climate-policy scenarios • And also a special focus on • Energy poverty in resource-rich Sub-Saharan African countries • Energy use in cities

  20. Post-2012 climate-policy analysis:Analytical framework • Two climate-policy scenarios are considered • 550 Policy Scenario – greenhouse-gas concentration stabilised at 550 ppm CO2-eq, implying a temperature rise of c.3oC • 450 Policy Scenario – concentration stabilised at 450 ppm (c.2oC) • Both scenarios assume hybrid policy approach • Cap-and-trade • Sectoral agreements • National policies & measures • Three distinct country groupings: OECD, Other Major Economies, Other Countries. • Both scenarios call for a huge shift in investment, credible regulatory framework, global carbon market & big increase in energy R&D • Key IEA input to Poznan, G8 in Italy and Copenhagen

  21. Thank you Raffaella.Centurelli@iea.orgwww.worldenergyoutlook.org

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