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Global Security and Afghanistan: The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2

Global Security and Afghanistan: The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008. Overview. NATO Summit in Bucharest Land and People Security Situation Escalation of Violence Who are the Taliban?

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Global Security and Afghanistan: The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2

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  1. Global Security and Afghanistan: The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008

  2. Overview • NATO Summit in Bucharest • Land and People • Security Situation • Escalation of Violence • Who are the Taliban? • Profile of a Suicide Bomber • Our Strategy • Building Afghanistan’s Security Forces • Problem of Narcotics • Regional Instability • A Dangerous Neighborhood • Global Security • International Cooperation • Role of NATO • Challenges of Coordination • Public Opinion in Afghanistan

  3. Land and People Area: 647,500 sq. km. (France) Population: 26 mil 5000 years of history Strategic location Crossroad of civilizations and invasions Mosaic of cultures Original Front: The Cold War and the War on Terror

  4. Security Situation

  5. Escalation of Terrorist Attacks

  6. Escalation of Terrorist Attacks

  7. Escalation of Violence in 2007 160 suicide attacks 30 % increase in terrorist attacks – Civilians are the prime target 566 security incidents per month vs. 425 average in 2006 8,000 conflict related deaths (7500 civilians) Attacks on Schools: 133 384 of the total 721 schools in the southern provinces are closed Attacks on Soft Targets Over 130 attacks against humanitarian programs, 40 aid workers killed, 89 abducted Sophisticated and more lethal attacks IEDs, VBIEDs, EFPs Al Qaeda influence and modus operandi

  8. 5, 700 civilian victims of conflict * Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007

  9. Where are we? • Tipping point or Turning point? • Historic accomplishments risk being overshadowed • 6 years after the start of Operation Enduring Freedom • Afghans do not feel safe • Lack resources to provide protection to our people • Shortage of national and international troops, equipment and resources • Limited respect for Afghan priorities and plans • Lack of coordination and proper sequencing • Our partners talk about coordination, but no one wants to be coordinated • Erosion of Patience (10% in extreme poverty) • The good will of the Afghan people is our most important asset.

  10. Who is Responsible? Taliban Are the Taliban an alternative? Terrorize population into submission Xenophobic terrorists with a history of oppression No political vision No charismatic leaders or ideological coherence Aim to derail reconstruction Capitalize on public frustration Foreign ideological, financial and logistical support Links to Al Qaeda: The Commander and the Foot Soldiers Al Qaeda IEDs, EFPs and Suicide Bombs Propaganda: Media, DVDs, recruitment websites Criminals, Warlords and spoilers Narco-Traffickers

  11. Profile of a Suicide Bomber • 1st wave: Foreigners • 2nd wave: Local • Who are the new recruits? • Few hardcore Jihadis • Taliban and Al Qaeda capitalizing on Ignorance, Poverty and Physical Handicaps • Radical madrassa networks are brainwashing young people

  12. Our Strategy for Fighting Terror Fighting terrorism as a phenomenon, not just terrorists as individuals. CLEAR Large scale, periodic military operations Prevent Collateral Damage and Harm to Civilians HOLD NATO/ANA and ANP sequencing - do not abandon people Deliver services: Court System, Police, Schools, Clinics BUILD No security without development Nati0nal ownership: Afghan face, not Afghan pace Demand driven reconstruction in support of our National Strategy; not prescriptive aid and pet projects

  13. Our Strategy: Training Afghan Security Forces • Success of Afghan National Army • 48,000 troops; Target: 80,000 • Professional Training • National Military Academy established; modeled on West Point - 300 graduates per year • Challenges of Afghan National Police • 21 countries are helping • Low level of accomplishment • Challenges

  14. Global Security: NATO NATO Summit in Romania 44,000 troops from 26 NATO countries, including 18,500 U.S. soldiers 38 countries are putting troops and their credibility on the line 41 countries are training the ANA 60 countries are providing reconstruction resources

  15. Global Security International Consensus • ISAF: 26 NATO members plus 11 partner nations • Challenge of coordination, troops and equipment • Need unity of effort, joint priorities and agreed sequencing • Shortage of Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams (OMLTs) • Challenges of NATO transformation to meet a new threat • National caveats – 102 as of October 2007 • “We have not fully been able to live up to the promises.” – NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer, October 2007

  16. International Consensus26 Provincial Reconstruction Teams from 13 countries

  17. Challenges in Striking Back Perceptions: • Public confidence in government is eroding • Corruption • Government is still large and interfering rather than efficient and enabling • Police reform: The battle for public opinion Solution: • Build the capacity of the Afghan Government to deliver • Anti-corruption strategy, Justice Sector, Salaries • Balancing tribal leaders with good managers • Expand pockets of competence within Government • Channel more funding through Government and Trust Funds

  18. Challenges of Striking Back • Fatal Error of Civilian Casualties • Civilian casualties are unacceptable to the Afghan government and people • Not only a fatal tragedy, but a strategic misstep • Fuels enemy propaganda • Use of human shields by terrorists • Solution • Improve quality of ground troops • Surgical Operations: Precision and human intelligence • Rapid-Response units that can deal with emergencies More international special forces • Rebuild Afghan air force • The power of a quick apology - Jalalabad

  19. Challenges of Striking BackFatal Error of Civilian Casualties * Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007

  20. Regional PowersA Dangerous Neighborhood

  21. Regional Powers: A Volatile Region Far from Heaven… Good partner in a strategic region Ring Road will turn Afghanistan into a roundabout for the region Relation with Pakistan: “Better than it sounds”Mark Twain Elections in Pakistan: A Step Forward Trade with Pakistan: 500% increase New opportunities vs. old phobias and designs Central Asia Under-utilized potential of cooperation Iran: Still constructive? India and China Our policy of seeking regional cooperation

  22. Measuring Progress

  23. Transition to Pluralism • Tyranny that ruled through fear • Absence of women from political and public life • Devastated economy • Largest refugee population in world • No formal banking system • School enrollment: 900,000 • 8% of population has access to basic health care • Few modern roads • Repressive political climate, • Elected President, Elected Parliament, Progressive Constitution • 74 Women Elected to the Afghan Legislature • Economy is Booming: Continuous double digit Economic Growth • 4.7 million refugees have returned home • Independent Central Bank with 32 Branches • School Enrollment: 6 million • 65-80% has access to health care • 10,000 km of new roads • Vibrant Political Process, hundreds of publications and radio stations, 6 independent TV stations

  24. Why is it important to stay engaged? • Historic Lesson: Being in Afghanistan is Dangerous – Not being in Afghanistan is more Dangerous • Investing in Afghanistan is a down payment for regional stability and tied to global security. • NATO: International credibility on the line • Afghanistan should not remain the most under-resourced nation-building operation of the postwar era • Need Marshall Plan and strategic commitment • South Korea as a model

  25. What Can You Do? • Learn more about Afghans • Kite Runner, A Thousand Splendid Suns • Buy Afghan products and give your home a touch of Afghanistan • Rugs, Handicrafts • People-to-People Diplomacy • Help Educate the Next Generation of Afghan Leaders • Travel: See Afghanistan with your own eyes • Help Heal the Wounds of War – Doctors needed for volunteer work • Celebrate Afghan Culture • Hidden Treasures on tour in Europe and USA

  26. Grateful for your Support • Your sons and daughters are fighting for global security • The good will of the Afghan people is an asset • Public Opinion in Afghanistan: • 90% of Afghans support the Afghan National Army • President Karzai’s approval rating is 63% (compare against other world leaders) • 70% hold favorable views of the US military • Afghans prefer current government to the Taliban by 84-4% *December 2007 ABC/BBC Poll and October 2007 Asia Foundation Poll

  27. Thank You www.embassyofafghanistan.org

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