1 / 72

Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Strategy and Security Studies Center for Asia Studies, Chennai

Increasing presence of China in the Indian Ocean Strategy and Security implications for India. Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Strategy and Security Studies Center for Asia Studies, Chennai. Maritime Challenges. Long Coast line 7516 Kms Far flung Islands on both sides

Gideon
Télécharger la présentation

Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Strategy and Security Studies Center for Asia Studies, Chennai

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Increasing presence of China in the Indian Ocean Strategy and Security implications for India Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Strategy and Security Studies Center for Asia Studies, Chennai

  2. Maritime Challenges • Long Coast line 7516 Kms • Far flung Islands on both sides • Nine maritime states • Heavy sea traffic along the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) around the sub-continent • 13 Major and 200 minor ports • Unresolved maritime borders with Pakistan and Bangladesh • Troubled waters in the South. • Asymmetric threats

  3. ( Mandapam Tuticorin Extent of EEZ West Coast 9,73,182 Sq Kms EastCoast 4,45,011SqKms A&N 5,95,217 Sq Kms Total 2013410 Sq Kms

  4. Security Challenges • Illegal immigration • Smuggling • Poaching • Gun running • Refugees/Stow aways • VNSAs • Safety of lives and property • Marine Pollution/Oil spills • Off shore assets/ Islands/Port security

  5. Security Challenges • Increasing maritime and coastal trade • SEZ including in port sector, Increased Private participation in maritime sector • Off shore oil exploration and protection issues • Issues of Governance of sensitive maritime boundaries. • Energy Security • Terrorism and Piracy (Somalian waters) • China Factor??

  6. Triggers and Trends • 70,000 ships would transit the Straits in a few yrs. • Over 43% of piracy attacks reported in the Malacca Straits last decade. Another 16% is reported in the Singapore • Somalia overtaking Malacca Straits as hot spot for piracy attacks • Dead/missing crew has increased threefold since 2002 as per the IMB. • The cost due to piracy attacks was estimated to be at 16 billion per annum.

  7. China India Power Play in the IOR

  8. Triggers for Chinese interest in IOR

  9. Seeing Red… SLOCs Hambanthota U/C

  10. Vital Sea Lines of Communication

  11. ASIAN TRADE TRENDS • China overtook Japan in Feb 2010 as the second largest economy • SE Asian economies would grow at comparable rates. • China export /import up by 30%+ during 2000-2009. • China became top export destination of Singapore 7 yrs ago. • Indonesia’s FDI receipts in respect of China 67%.

  12. Main trigger ‘ENERGY NEEDS’

  13. Gulf of Aden Challenge • Surge in Piracy off Somalia • Increasing number of Hijackings at far off distances from coast • Each Navy despatching ships to area for protection of merchantmen • No resolute action for Coordinated action • Origins over land • Both China and India despatched naval units and maintain presence

  14. Hijackings off Somalia

  15. Based on IMB Reports

  16. 140 Bn USD High estimate Estimates of Chinese Def Expenditure 90Bn USD low estimate 50Bn USD Official/ Announced 2010 Projections

  17. Offshore Defence Strategy • “Overall, our military strategy is defensive. We attack only after being attacked. But our operations are offensive.” • “Space or time will not limit our counter offensive.” • “We will not put boundaries on the limits of our offensives.” • “We will wait for the time and conditions that favor our forces when we do initiate offensive operations.” • “We will focus on the opposing force’s weaknesses.” • “We will use our own forces to eliminate the enemy’s forces” • “Offensive operations against the enemy and defensive operations for our own force protection will be conducted simultaneously”

  18. First and second Island chains

  19. Missile Launch Ranges from China • Hit any one, anywhere • Super sonic ASCM-YJ62 on Luyang II DDGs, SSN 22 Sun burn on Sovremennyy, SSN27B/Sizzler on Kilo class Submarines • By Dec 09 deployed 1050 CSS 6 and 1150 CSS 7(SRBMs) • ASBMs based on CSS 5 MRBMs 1500 kms with manoeuvrable warhead

  20. ORBAT: Fleet Disposition North Sea Fleet East Sea Fleet South Sea Fleet

  21. PLAN Destroyers:1 Type 052C (Lanzhou class )1 Type 052B (Guangzhou class)2 Sovremenny class1 Type 051B (NATO codename: Luhai class)2 Type 052 (NATO codename: Luhu class)16 Luda class destroyers (some modernised, others mostly old tech)Total: 23 Frigates:4Type 053H2G/Jangwei class10 Type 053H3/Jangwei-II class23 Jianghu-class (I+II+III, most old ships) Total: 37

  22. Type 051 C-DDG Luzhou

  23. Red Navy (DDG/FFG)

  24. Sentinels of the Deep PLAN 40 Type 035 Ming class and older Type 033 Romeo class diesel submarines4 Russian-made Kilo class 5 indigenous Type 039 Song class diesel submarines5 Type 091 Han class nuclear attack submarine (SSN)1 Type 092 Xia class nuclear missile submarine (SSBN) Total: 54 subs

  25. Sentinels of the sea(Type 094-Jin Class) Hainan Island ?

  26. Potent force in the making • Type 093, SSN, new nuclear powered attack submarine • Type 094, SSBN, new nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine • Type 039, Song class SSK, ddvanced diesel electric attack submarine • Proj 636, Yuanzheng SSK, imported advanced Russian Kilo diesel electric attack submarine • Yuan Class SSK, new advanced diesel electric attack submarine with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) Capabilities

  27. PLA Naval base also completed

  28. Han class sub

  29. 052 Class

  30. Special Ops: PLAN

  31. All eyes on Varyag • Could also start commencing indigenous aircraft carrier programme by end of this year (2010) • Plans to train 50 pilots including from Varyag in a four year programme

  32. Blue water navy in the making? • Bases in China, Dependency ports in IOR,ASBMs, Modernisation • OTH targeting capabilitiy with Sky Wave and Surface Wave OTH Radars • Satellites for long range surveillance for precision attacks with ASBMs • ‘Informatisation’ for Integrated Joint Ops (Concept in 2004) • Up to five new SSBNs JIN 094 class and 095 advanced SSNs, 13 Song class Diesel electric submarines(YJ 82 ASCM) follow on is Yuan class(AIP)- 15 more planned in addition to four existing – All likely to be capable of launching CH-SS_NX13 ASCM on acceptance • Surface combatants with long range HHQ9 LRSAMs on LUYANG(052 C) and SA-N-20 LRSAM (Russian) on LUzhou( 051 C), 6 Jiangkai II(054A) FFG with medium range HHQ-16 VLSAMs • Houbei Type 0222 missile patorl boats for local defence carrying up to eight YJ83 ASCMs • Development of AEW&C based on KJ-200 and KJ 2000(IL76) • Cyber space initiatives-

  33. Concept of ops (CONOPS) India • CBG • Both Sea Control and Denial forces • LND • Amphibious forces • Layered defence using marine police wing, Coast Guard and the Navy • Integrated Coastal defence network

  34. Concept of Operations (CONOPS) • Shore based and integral aviation for surveillance • NCW/NCO • Satellite • Joint Ops

  35. Indian Navy Surface: Total 36 1 Carrier3 type 155 Rajput (with Brahmos capability) 3 Type 163 Talwars3 Type 16A3 Type 253 Type 25A13 Veer Submarines :Total 14 10 kilos (upgraded with klub N) can strike surface4 HDW 209

  36. INDIAN NAVY Submarines: Total 17 2 Vela (Foxtrot) Class 4 Shishumer Class(HDW) 10 (Kilo) Sindhogush 1 Akula Class on lease Air craft carriersViraat Vikramaditya ADS U/C

  37. Maritime Capability Perspective Plan • 11th through 13th plan aimed at balanced growth in ship building, submarine construction and aviation development • About 20 percent of def budget expected for Navy (capital to revenue about 60:40) • Six Scorpene at MDL first delivery 2012 last in 2017? • Mod Plans include induction of major surface combatants, surveillance platforms ,ASW/ASV platforms, multi role helicopters, space based surveillance and satellite communications, NCW

  38. Maritime Capability Perspective Plan • U/C Aircraft Carrier, 2 HDW submarines, and six Scorpene. Total 32 ships and subs u/c • Building of ships by non PSUs due to heavy orders • 15 yrs indigenous plan • R&D both by DRDO and Indian Industries • Opportunities for Marine Eng Equipment and Technologies exist for Indian Industry • Vikramaditya by 2012?

  39. Force structuring two CBG, LND forces, well defined submarine force, shore based LRMR, ASW,ASV, integral helicopters • Translates to a force consisting of three aircraft carriers,35 frigates/destroyers, four supprt ships, about 100 LND units, about 20 subs, amphibious ships • 2 carriers by 2014 and the third to join by 2019? • Seven frigates and four Destroyers approved to be built by DPSUs by 2021 @ Rs 45,000 crores • Present level is of 130 ships plans to get it up to 160

  40. Viraat

  41. Vikramaditya Many Questions Still ?

  42. Sindhuvijay

  43. Advanced Technology Vehicle -Arihant

  44. Shivalik Stealth ships

  45. Vindhyagiri

  46. INS Shishumar

  47. Talwar

More Related