The challenge of 15-24 year olds in Digital Entertainment

1. The challengeof 15-24 year olds in Digital Entertainment Peter Olaf Looms

2. This evening’s menu • Who I am and what I do • DR and 15-24 year olds • Highlights of research into youth and digital media • A case: Boogie • Conclusions • The future

3. Who I am and what I do • 1

4. Full-time consultant at DR, a public service broadcaster - “to inform, educate and entertain” Strategic planning, mainly digital TV and broadband Altid Sport Who I am and what I do 1/3

5. Teach postgraduate courses on project management and strategy Participate in R&D projects (mobile content for youth, PVRs, interactivity and advertising) the University of Hong Kong the IT-University of Copenhagen EMMDIS MSc Programme - Cross Media Production -INA, Institut National d’Audiovisuel, France Institute of Interactive Television Research, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia (October/December 2004) Who I am and what I do 2/3

6. The IT University of Copenhagen

7. Current tasks: Chairman of European standardisation programme for Personal Video Recorders (PVRs) in Europe Benchmarking of web, mobile & digital TV projects in the Nordic countries within the Nordvision New Media group Strategic planning of DR’s interactive media towards 2010 Who I am and what I do 3/3 EICTA

8. DR and the 15-24 years olds • 2

9. Supply of broadcast media in Danish - 1995 radio tv

10. Supply of broadcast media in Danish - 2004 radio P5 P6 Altid Sport tv

11. Penetration of new media in Denmark -1995 0,9% 1% 33% %

12. Penetration of new media in Denmark - 2004 82% 78% 90% %

13. Household penetration (%) Danish households 100 TV Video 90 Colour-TV Teletext 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1997 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1999 2001 2003 Penetration of new media since 1953 2+ TVsets Internet Mobile phone DVD Games console Digital TV >10 channels Stereo-TV Nicam surround TTV mobile www Sat-TV: inkl. Fællesantenner, hybridnet og paraboler Sources: Gallup Annual Survey, Gallup Index Danmark og Danmarks Statistik *Bredbånd: ADSL, kabel, m.m. – Ikke ISDN

14. ] 2-3% Public Service TV (DR & TV2) Time-shift (VHS) Video console games PVRs and the like Other TV channels (commercial) VHS/DVD (pre-recorded) Playback of PC video on TV TV tuners in PCs Weekly television consumption (all Danes) Hours/week <1% Slow rate of change Source:Gallup

15. ] 25-30% Public Service TV (DR & TV2) Time-shift (VHS) Video console games PVRs and the like Other TV channels (commercial) VHS/DVD (pre-recorded) Playback of PC video on TV TV tuners in PCs [ Weekly television consumption (Danes < 30) Hours/week Rapid change... <1% Source:Gallup

16. Youth and television DR has a problem... 15-24 year olds have never watched much TV. Currently 20% ofthem watch less than 15 minutes a week TV (TV drama in Danish) Source: Gallup TV-meter 2004

17. Youth and television Youth and radio DR has a problem... Average weekly listening in 2003: 21 hours 54 mins. Radio is on the decline There are many other radio-like options... Source: DR Whole population 12-19 year-olds Figures from 1998-2003

18. Youth and television Youth and radio Youth and other digital media DR has a problem... 81% of all 8-12 year-olds Play PC games daily 52% play console games The average kid spends nearly an hour a day playing electronic games Source: Gallup (2002) for Børnerådet/Youth Council

19. Youth and television Youth and radio Youth and other digital media Youth and mobiles Youth have a varied and voracious appetite for all things digital - but we know too little about it Translation: 1 billion SMS for HKD 125/month if you sign up for the free SMS service DR has a problem... The mobile is the most ubiquitous personal device - 96% of all 15-24 year olds have one A typical user sends 17 SMS messages a day Source: Gallup Telekom Index, 2004

20. Licence-fee funded Public Service broadcasting = Something for everyone It’s a problem is DR has nothing to offer the youth DR’s problem is legitimacy

21. Two hypotheses: DR’s problem is legitimacy A. If DR loses the young as viewers, listeners or users of public service then they are lost for good As yet we do not know which of the two is right. Dare we run the risk that it will be B? B. Media consumption patterns are a reflection of phases in life. The young will return to the fold as they get older

22. DR’s problem is a global one What Do we know about young people? Is there anything we can do as a result? How Can we reach a better understand of what makes them ”tick”?

23. Research into youth & digital media • 3

24. A recent study from the USA www.online-publishers.org

27. Remember - mobile not widespread in US Methodological problems - interviews

29. www.w2forum.com

30. The importance of youth • In numerical terms, youth are declining as a proportion of the global population (exceptions!) • Increase economic power as a consumer group (USD 1.4 trillion annually)

31. Increasing mobile adoption • Most popular youth technology product • In many countries, the mobile has reached 80% penetration of this group • 8% of disposable income will be spent on mobiles in 2006 (cf. 1% on music) • Need to develop relevant content and services for youth lifestyles

32. Music • Mobile music is a myth (MP3 on the phone) • Growth not driven by retails sales to youth but as a promotional channel (music clips, promos, identifying tastes and trends) c.f.i-Pod

33. TV • Youth audiences are in a decline • Fewer watch TV • Those who watch see fewer hours • However more satisfaction with the TV that is watched (BBC figures for the UK) • The mobile as the universal return channel for participation • SMS and MMS popular as means of taking part in live shows (votes, polls, contributing opinions and sharing content) • Voting only associated with entertainment such as Reality shows - not politics

34. Games • The mobile slowing down video games • As yet still a niche PSP, N-Gage, Nintendo DS • Take up will depend on tying things into other media and platforms such as online and video consoles

35. Diffusion model breaking down • Early adopters do not influence youth adoption into mass markets cf. ROAR • Early adopters can however be used for product development

36. Right of Admission Reserved www.roar.org

37. Annual reports on youth research in the UK

38. Early Adopters Opinion Formers • Mainstream Traditional model of diffusion

39. Hypothesized Diffusion Model – 2002 ROAR Findings Opinion Formers Mainstream “Aspirants” Media Celebrities

40. Aspirants screen by is it in my channels, part of my culture? Mainstream screen by is it everywhere - 360° covered? Filter via media channels – adopt for the moment & move on Filter via ubiquity - slower to move on Different Relationships with Media Across Groups Media overload Opinion Formers screen by is it fresh, new, part of my passion Filter based on passion – strong allegiance to brands truly involved

41. Artists tipped to ‘emerge’ during the period of our study by our music insiders.We asked about our respondents about awareness. • Dizzee Rascal - UK Garage • Alfie – Guitar Indie /‘Folktronica’ • Athlete – Guitar/Indie • Kings Of Leon – Rock • Mars Volta – Rock • The Rapture – Rock • Zinc - Drum‘n’Bass • Joe Budden – Hip Hop • Chingy – Hip Hop / R&B Opinion Formers Ahead Aspirants Ahead

42. What bands are you into? • Qn : Of those artists you are aware of, which ones are you into? • We ordered the bands by popularity, then saw which of our groups were relatively more or less into each of the acts. • And the survey said… • Of top 5 most popular listed artists of the time, e.g. Wayne Wonder and Big Brovaz those being pushed in the media aspirants easily lead in all cases • As we move further down the popularity stakes e.g. Zinc and Alfie, Opinion Formers start to dominate.

43. The role of opinion formers is manifold • Opinion formers do pass on information about new things most quickly. • Specifically Opinion Formers spread most quickly to the mainstream. • Opinion formers and the Mainstream are more likely to form friendship groups, with Aspirants more likely to hang out with other Aspirants.

44. In pictures Opinion Formers Aspirants Mainstream

45. Qualitative research shows relationship with media helps filter info overload • Opinion formers have passion centres and will filter according to whether it is in that centre. • Aspirants have a select subset of trusted ‘cool’ sources of media and they will be receptive to its output. • Mainstream are more passively selecting based on volume of information from any media source. • Opinion formers were more into esoteric acts whereas the aspirants followed more media-plugged acts.

46. Hypothesized Diffusion Model – 2002 ROAR Findings Opinion Formers Mainstream “Aspirants” Media Celebrities

47. Different kinds of media interaction To… MEDIA Opinion Formers Aspirants Mainstream

48. Direct Applications • Opinion former attitude + interest in a specific area. • Identify ‘super opinion formers’ in a particular field.

50. ”The aesthetic has left the record sleeve and now the aesthetic is the artifact: the iPod” ”The market is moving toward the artifact, not the music to fill it.” Storing a few perennial favourites, otherwise shuffling new music in and out - relectant to pay for something you don’t keep Handheld devices