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Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts

ASSOCIATION FRANCAISE DU GAZ. Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts. Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés) Ancien Directeur Gaz Electricité Charbon du Groupe Total. PARTIE 1.

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Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts

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  1. ASSOCIATION FRANCAISE DU GAZ Le pic de la production mondiale de gaz naturel et ses impacts Pierre-René BAUQUIS Professeur Associé ENSPM (IFP School) Professeur TPA (TOTAL Professeurs Associés) Ancien Directeur Gaz Electricité Charbon du Groupe Total 1

  2. PARTIE 1 RAPPEL : LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PIC DU PETROLE 2

  3. Brief summary of past findings and views • The only "publically available data" on oil reserves are the so called "proven reserves". • Unfortunately, they are totally useless to study and predict "Peak Oil". • The only "usable" concepts for "peak oil estimation", at oil basins levels, countries levels or world level are : • Ultimate reserves concept • Evolution of past exploration performances and production curves (creaming curves) • King Hubbert methodology (world applicability). 3

  4. 2000 – 2006 : a historical warning by ASPO Are we here ? ASPO France members (June 2006): Jean Laherrère (formerly Total) Pierre-René Bauquis (fy Total) Carlos Cramez (fy Total) Jean-Luc Wingert Xavier Chavannes (Paris VII) Jean-Marc Jancovici (fy Envt) Alain Perrodon (fy Elf) Paul Alba (fy Elf) Maurice Allègre (fy IFP) Jacques Varet (BRGM) Adolphe Nicolas (Montpellier Uni) Jean-Marie Bourdaire (ex Total) Bernard Rogeaux (EDF) A few ‘peak oil’ websites 3w.peakoil.net 3w.aspofrance.org 3w.oilcrisis.com 3w.peakoil.com 4

  5. 1973 2000 GTOE Years of consumption GTOE Years of consumption Oil world reserves Gas world reserves 86 52 30 48 140 140 40 65 Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problem PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE 5

  6. What the R/P (Reserves/Production) ratio means World oil production (Mbep/d) ?? ? ! 30 years R/P = 40 years this area = already used this area = reserves left 6

  7. But a closer look (at ultimate reserves) suggests a different picture Ultimate reserves (conventional crude, worldwide) 1973 2000 G barrels 2000 - 3000 2000 - 3000 Between 1973 and 2000, ultimate reserve estimateshave practically remained flat. source: PR Bauquis 26-28 novembre 2000 - Global Foundation 7

  8. * Cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discovered Gb Pratt (1942) Duce (1946) Pouge (1946) Weeks (1948) Leverson (1949) Weeks (1949) MacNaughton (1953) Hubbert (1956) Weeks (1958) Weeks (1959) Hendricks (1965) Ryamn (1967) Shell (1968) Weeks (1968) Hubbert (1969) Moody (1970) Weeks (1971) Warman (1972) Bauquis (1972) Schweinfurth (1973) Linden (1973) Bonillas (1974) Howitt (1974) Moody (1975) WEC (1977) Nelson (1977) De Bruyne (1978) Klemme (1978) Nehring (1978) Nehring (1979) Halbouty (1979) Meyerhoff (1979) Roorda (1979) Halbouty (1979) WEC (1980) Strickland (1981) Coliti (1981) Nehring (1982) Masters (1983) Kalinin (1983) Martin (1984) Ivanhoe (1984) Masters (1987) Campbell (1991) Masters (1991) Townes (1993) Petroconsult. (1993) Masters (1994) USGS (2000) 1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979 1980 1989 1990 2000 HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000 8

  9. THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONSIN THE USA (*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere 9

  10. Gboe/year (5-year average) 70 Sources: - Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005) - Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004) Deep sea (>500m) 60 58 Kashagan / Shah Deniz ‘Classic’ exploration Excl. non-conventional oils such as Athabasca and Orenoco Liquid HC production 50 47 39 40 36 36 34 32 29 30 26 27 24 23 23 20 21 20 20 15 0.9 16 14 13 12 1.5 9 11 4.2 10 7 4.7 2.2 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 01/05 06/10 11/15 16/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/55 56/60 61/65 66/70 71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 2001 - 2004 (*) (*) 4-year average Oil and condensate discoveries and worldwide production of liquid hydrocarbons 10

  11. Prospective de la production pétrolière mondiale(first draft : final draft objective end 2006) 2005 2020 2050 2100 Production par pays ou Zones géographiques (hydrocarbures liquides naturels Pays de l’OCDE 2005 8 6 3 1 USA Canada 3 4 5 3 Mer du Nord 6 4 1 0.5 1 Autres 1 1 0.5 Sous total 18 15 10 5 Pays de l’OPEC 2005 Arabie 9 12 7 4 Iran 3.5 5 3 2 Irak 2.5 5 4 2 Koweit 2 3 2 1 Venezuela 2 4 5 4 Algérie + Libye 2 3 1 0.5 Nigéria 2 3 1 0.5 Emirats + Qatar 3 4 1 0.5 Autres 1 1 1 0.5 Sous total 27 40 25 15 Pays non OCDE – non OPEC Russie et autres : Kazakstan, Azerbaïdjan, Angola, Mexique, Argentine, Colombie, Brésil, Congo, etc… 36 43 30 20 Schistes bitumineux   4 10 Total Monde GTep / mb/d 4 / 81 5 / 98 3.5 /69 2.6 /50 11

  12. Conclusions about "peak oil" • Since June 2006 it can be considered that views about Peak Oil in France have become reasonably similar : • TOTAL : Thierry Desmarest – around 2020 / around 100 Mb/d • ASPO France : J. Laherrère – around 2015 / less than 100 Mb/d • IFP : Y. Mathieu –ondulated plateau 20150/2030 – less than 100 Mb/d • This point of view is widely different from those among the "optimists" who believe that Peak Oil is not "reserves related" but a political problem : insufficient investments and restrictive policies about investments by OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico : • Exxon-Mobil – ongoing at ad. Campaign "no signs of peak oil" • Aramco – July 2006 – "no reserves problems" • BP : John Browne – May 2006 - "There is no reserves problem" • Mike Lynch (ex MIT) – "similar and above 120 Mb/d" • USGS, DOE, EIA, IEA… 12

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  14. PARTIE 2 LA PROBLEMATIQUE DU PIC DU GAZ 14

  15. Applicabilité au gaz des méthodologiesutilisables pour le pic pétrolier • Réserves ultimes et • courbes d'écrémage . oui, mais incertitudes très différentes de celles du pétrole (taux de récupération facteur majeur pour le pétrole, secondaire pour le gaz). . Moindre maturité de l'exploration gaz pour le Courbes d'écrémage. . Plus d'incertitudes pour les ressources en place non conventionnelles de gaz que de pétrole ? Etudes "bottom-up" : . Méthodologie la plus prometteuse. Courbes de Hubbert : . L'échec aux USA . L'applicabilité probable au plan mondial. 15

  16. Gboe/uear (5-year average) 70 65 Deep sea (>500m) 60 Kashagan / Shah Deniz ‘Classic’ exploration 52 Liquid HC production 50 Sources: - Discoveries: IHS (excl. onsh US/Canada and GoM Shelf ) (May 2005) - Production: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2004) 40 30 26 23 23 20 18 15 16 15 14 13 14 11 3.9 11 9 10 1.4 8 7 8 6 6 2.2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 01/05 06/10 11/15 16/20 21/25 26/30 31/35 36/40 41/45 46/50 51/55 56/60 61/65 66/70 71/75 76/80 81/85 86/90 91/95 96/00 2001 - 2004 (*) (*) 4-year average Gas-hydrocarbon discoveries and production worldwide (Hubbert methodology for world gas) 16

  17. Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (1) 17

  18. Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (2) 18

  19. Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (3) 19

  20. Exposé PRB interne TOTAL – avril 2001 - (4) 20

  21. Evolution historique de la production nette de gaz dans le monde (1950-2004 – gaz commercialisé) Source : Cedigaz 2006 21

  22. (Vision du LEPII) : sources ? 22

  23. Vision PR. Bauquis du profil gazier mondial Plateau à 6000 Gm3/an • pic/plateau : 2030-2050 4000 Gm3/an Réserves ultimes >400 Gtep  Vision LEPII pic/plateau : 2030-2050 Réserves ultimes > 500 GTep pic plateau : 2020-2030 4000 Gm3/an Réerves ultimes > 300 GTep 23

  24. Conclusions • Il reste beaucoup de travail à faire pour mieux déterminer les deux paramètres essentiels du "pic gaz" au plan mondial : • Date ou fourchette de dates • Niveau de production mondiale. • L'IFP; l'AFGTP, l'AFG… et l'ASPO doivent y consacrer des efforts importants car les enjeux sont majeurs : ce devrait être un pôle privilégié de coopération entre l'AFG et l'AFTP. • Il faut que ces travaux soient consacrés tant aux études globales ("Top Down") que détaillées ("Bottom Up"). (objectif PRB 2007 : un profil gaz mondial long terme "Bottom Up") 24

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