Rapid Prototyping Workshop

1. Rapid Prototyping Workshop Seven threatened and endangered species of the Edwards Aquifer

2. Federally Listed Species Seven endangered species : • Texas Blind Salamander • Fountain Darter • San Marcos Gambusia • Texas Wild-rice • Comal Springs Riffle Beetle • Comal Springs Dryopid Beetle • Peck's Cave Amphipod One threatened species: • San Marcos Salamander

3. Texas wild-rice (TWR) (Zizania texana) Species to Address

5. Problem Statement (in short) • Develop an iterative process that will be used to determine jeopardy for the Texas wild rice (Zizania texana) in light of scientific uncertainty and political controversy surrounding water management of the Edwards Aquifer • Jeopardy defined by change in probability in area of occupancy < threshold

6. Process • Identify influencing factors • Broad, inclusive list • Narrowed to most influential • Model the relationship between factors • Focus on upper reach • Developed simple belief model • Possible states & conditional probability tables • Explored alternatives with the model • Baseline • Alternatives

7. The Model

9. Alternative 2

10. Flow 100-180 Invasive – med. Floating - low Flood - low Recreation - low Flow 50 -100 Invasive – low Floating - low Flood - low Recreation - low Flow 100-180 Invasive – low Floating - med Flood - med Recreation - med

11. Next Steps • Break out into groups • Repeat rapid prototyping for the Fountain Darter and Comal Springs Dryopid Beetle • Continue work with refining alternatives and work on the simulation model • How this will input into the RIP