Future Home

1. Future Home Presented to the Minnesota Futurists July 25, 2009 by David Keenan

2. Agenda • Motivation • Futurist Methodology • Energy • “i-House” • Appliances • Automated Homes for the Elderly • Summary • Discussion • Links

3. Motivation Family Meeting – Contingency Planning for Mother (83) Our goal: • The goal of this contingency planning is so the family can be prepared and communicate our concerns and questions to you and to get your input so that we can act according to your wishes in case an emergency event occurs. What can we do in the meantime to make you more comfortable and avoid preventable emergencies? • As children, our goal is to help Mom be safe, be healthy, and be happy. Meeting guidelines: • To be successful, we will be open, frank, have an honest exchange, and agree that this is a family confidential business to be safe-guarded accordingly. • We also realize that a record of actions, decisions, and assignments that come from this meeting will be recorded so that all members will know what to do in the future. • We will try to be calm and open to all input from all family members.

4. Motivation Family Meeting – Contingency Planning for Mother (83) Topics of Discussion • Financial Status: • Income and current burn rate, impact of increasing expenses • Health Issues: • Latest update • Emergency plan • Contingency plan for rapid decline • Medications: Available, correctly dosed for daily use, guidelines • Exercise

5. Motivation Family Meeting – Contingency Planning for Mother (83) Topics of Discussion continued • Safety Issues: reducing personal risk • Driving – Guidelines and Issues • Slips and falls – rails and other handholds, non-slip steps • Lifeline – consider subscription • Daily routine to support quality of life: • Daily calls – Reduce confusion, aid memory of appointments and events • Routine maintenance - managing services • Groceries / Meal prep / Nutrition • Hygiene supplies and issues • Best use of Home Care aide • What the Future holds: • Future housing, transportation options • What can we do to help

6. Futurist Methodology • Possible Future • Probable Future • Preferable Future

7. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use • Consumers have heard for years that solar, wind, and geothermal power might soon cut their monthly energy bills. But things get exciting, even exotic, looking a decade or two ahead. • Scientists envision that light bulbs will talk to switches, furnaces to windows, and everything to the Internet. Homes generate their own power in basement plants. Windows and paint change color to harvest sunlight or reject it. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

8. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use • But it's one thing for scientists to talk game and another for builders and homeowners to play. Cutting home energy use means changing consumer behavior and industry practice. • "The construction trades are among the most conservative out there," says Leon Glicksman, a professor of building technology at the MIT. It's also a highly fragmented, diffuse industry of mostly small contractors installing separate systems in a home. One does heating, another lighting, a third the electrical system. There often is nobody who integrates the many systems with an eye to energy savings. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

9. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use • So as much as scientists like to talk whiz-bang for the future, what's also needed is training. "It'll be interesting to see 10 or 20 years from now how much progress is technology oriented and how much is education based," says Dariush Arasteh, who studies building technology at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. • That said, promising new technologies are emerging in labs, and some in commercial buildings, that in a decade or two could win over even the most skeptical builders and homeowners. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

10. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Tunable tints • In most U.S. climates, there is no easy answer when looking for energy-efficient windows. Today's panes tend to be specific to a type of weather—glass can be treated to reflect sunlight for warm-weather areas or not reflect it for colder climes. "If you're in St. Louis, you ideally want one in summer and another in winter," says Arasteh, whose lab studies window energy use. • Intense research is focusing on smarter windows that can change their coating on demand. A tint could block the sun in hot weather but fade on cold days to let in warm rays. Special "electrochromic" coatings darken when a small voltage is applied. A Minnesota company, Sage Electrochromics, already sells early versions that are used in some high-end homes, usually as skylights. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

11. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Tunable tints continued • At current high prices, they make more economic sense for commercial buildings. Factories and offices could reduce daytime lighting costs with more windows but can't afford to let in the sun's heating rays. Homes tend to need more of their light at night and benefit less from natural illumination. • Still, commercial sales can help fine-tune production to get costs down. Then the entire window-producing industry must revamp itself for the new tech, an issue that has held up other energy-saving approaches, such as triple-pane windows. "It's like having a factory that's set up to make simple sandwiches," says Arasteh. "Now you're asking them to make club sandwiches. These changes take years." http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

12. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Smart homes • Existing home heating, cooling, and lighting systems could save energy with some new smarts. Lights typically don't know they can turn off or dim when the sun comes up, and air handlers continue blowing heated or cooled air at open windows. Simple networking that got all of them talking could wring out a third of energy use in a building, says Neil Gershenfeld, an MIT computer science professor: "It's sort of an Internet of things.“ • Many companies have tried for the smart home. About 20 different families of gear already exist. But they're not made to work with one another, and none can expand to handle complex systems while being cheap enough to work with a simple light bulb. Gershenfeld's lab has developed a simple networking language—think Morse code—that can turn a light bulb into a node on the Internet, sending and receiving data. The same code could control complicated heating and cooling systems that respond to outside temperature changes, or as people come and go. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

13. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Smart homes continued • Prototypes already exist of hardware that a homeowner might install cheaply, even in an existing structure. One attraction: "We don't have to rewire the whole building," says Charlie Catlett, chief information officer at Argonne National Laboratory, which is installing an early test of the system in one of its buildings. Plus, "these things are so cheap and small that we can actually think about putting them into things like chairs and light bulbs." http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

14. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Frozen smoke. • Nothing is weirder than the aerogel that might one day keep our homes comfy. One of the lightest solids known to man, the translucent and wispy material looks like a slice of solid smoke. It's about 99 percent gas trapped in nano-size bubbles within a lacelike material, and there is no better insulation for a given thickness. "The problem is that for now it's expensive as heck," says Andre Desjarlais at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

15. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Frozen smoke continued • But breaking into the construction industry, which uses nearly two thirds of all insulation produced, is a priority for the few small companies commercially producing the ethereal stuff. "We're focused on those areas where space is at a premium," says Aspen Aerogels CEO Don Young. • That means retrofitting existing structures, particularly older masonry walls with no hollows for stuffing conventional insulation. Public partners are helping to pay to install aerogel insulation in more than 250 New York City housing units as an early test. For now, though, aerogel will largely remain a tool for space agencies, the Pentagon, and oil companies that can pay the steep premium. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

16. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Frozen smoke continued • Desjarlais's lab at Oak Ridge focuses on technology to secure the building "envelope" for energy efficiency. It includes a number of bizarre-sounding technologies, such as paint that's white one minute to reflect sunlight and later darkens to collect it. But nothing can top the weird nature of frozen smoke. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

17. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Home hydrogen • Fuel cells have powered space flight for decades, and auto companies hope they'll soon be ready for cars. In a decade or two, they should be commonly available for the basement, says Tom Drennen, an associate professor at Hobart and William Smith Colleges and coauthor of Pathways to a Hydrogen Future. "There's a lot of efficiency in generating electricity where it is used," he says. • Fuel cells generate electricity through a chemical process that combines hydrogen and oxygen. When the inputs are pure, the only side products are water and heat in a process that's long been perfected. "What's not perfected is getting the fuel, the hydrogen, to them," says Branko Terzic, a Deloitte consultant on energy policy. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

18. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Home hydrogen continued • A few Japanese companies have installed experimental models in homes that run off natural gas. An added device strips hydrogen from the gas to fuel the cells, which generate electricity and hot water. A smaller slice of American homes have gas service, limiting that approach here. Converting natural gas also produces greenhouse gases. But the process is still less polluting than traditional electrical generation. "And nothing's wasted getting it to the home," Drennen says. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

19. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Brighter bulbs • Here's a twist on the old joke: In a few decades, nobody will know what it even means to change a light bulb. "The house will get torn down before a light bulb ever burns out," says Russell Dupuis, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology and fan of light-emitting diodes, or LEDs. • The 130-year-old Edison bulbs will first get replaced in the home by compact fluorescents, which use about a third the energy and last years longer. Even more miserly LEDs are expected to later replace fluorescents. LEDs use about 12 percent the energy of incandescents and can last 50 years or more. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

20. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Brighter bulbs continued • They've already become popular in some commercial settings, particularly where lights burn 24-7—such as the freezer at an all-night Wal-Mart. • Steep initial costs limit their appeal to U.S. homeowners. People just can't embrace spending $120 or $130 on a bulb. While even that steep price can earn a payback in eight or 10 years, it's too long for the typically nomadic U.S. homeowner. Dupuis dreams that people soon will ask whether a prospective home has LED lights and will pay more for one that does. He should—he built a passel of them into his house. http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

21. 5 Future Technologies That Will Slash Home Energy Use Video: http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use/video/ http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html

22. i-House In this Oct. 28, 2008 image released by Clayton Homes Inc., the new "i-house" is shown. The solar-powered, energy efficient prefab house features decks on the ground level and on the roof of the detached "flex room." (AP Photo/Clayton Homes) http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

23. i-House • From its bamboo floors to its rooftop deck, Clayton Homes' new industrial-chic "i-house" is about as far removed from a mobile home as an iPod from a record player. • Architects at the country's largest manufactured home company embraced the basic rectangular form of what began as housing on wheels and gave it a postmodern turn with a distinctive v-shaped roofline, energy efficiency and luxury appointments. • Stylistically, the "i-house" might be more at home in the pages of a cutting-edge architectural magazine like Dwell — an inspirational source — than among the Cape Cods and ranchers in the suburbs. http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

24. i-House Artist rendering provided by Clayton Homes Inc. of Tennessee Floor plan of its new solar-powered, energy efficient "i-house". The prefab home can be altered, by the buyer, in size and shape. In this example, the core of the house has a second bedroom and has been arranged in an "L" pattern with the separate "flex room" off the deck. (AP Photo/Clayton Homes Inc.) http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

25. i-House • The layout of the long main "core" house and a separate box-shaped guestroom-office "flex room" resemble the letter "i'' and its dot. Yet Clayton CEO and President Kevin Clayton said "i-house" stands for more than its footprint. • With a nod to the iPod and iPhone, Clayton said, "We love what it represents. We are fans of Apple and all that they have done. But the 'I' stands for innovation, inspiration, intelligence and integration.“ • Clayton's "i-house" was conceived as a moderately priced "plug and play" dwelling for environmentally conscious homebuyers. It went on sale nationwide 2 May 2009 with its presentation at the annual shareholders' meeting of investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway Inc. in Omaha, Neb. http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

26. i-House • "This innovative 'green' home, featuring solar panels and numerous other energy-saving products, is truly a home of the future," Buffett wrote his shareholders. "Estimated costs for electricity and heating total only about $1 per day when the home is sited in an area like Omaha.“ • Maryville, Tenn.-based Clayton Homes, acquired by Berkshire-Hathaway in a $1.7 billion buyout in 2003, delivered 27,499 mobile or manufactured homes last year, a third of the industry total. Kevin Clayton thinks the "i-house" very quickly could represent more than 10% of its business. • Clayton Homes plans to price the "i-house" at $100 to $130 a square foot, depending on amenities and add-ons, such as additional bedrooms. A stick-built house with similar features could range from $200 to $300 a square foot to start, said Chris Nicely, Clayton marketing vice president. http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

27. i-House • The "i-house's" metal v-shaped roof — inspired by a gas-station awning — combines design with function. The roof provides a rain water catchment system for recycling, supports flush-mounted solar panels and vaults interior ceilings at each end to 10 1/2 feet for an added feeling of openness. • The Energy Star-rated design features heavy insulation, six-inch thick exterior walls, cement board and corrugated metal siding, energy efficient appliances, a tankless water heater, dual-flush toilets and lots of "low-e" glazed windows. • The company said the prototype at roughly 52,000 pounds may be the heaviest home it's ever built. http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

28. i-House • The key cost difference is from the savings Clayton achieves by building homes in volume in green standardized factories with very little waste. Clayton has 4 plants in OR, TN, CA and NM geared up for "i-house" production. • A 1,000 SF prototype unveiled at a Clayton show in Knoxville was priced at around $140,000. It came furnished, with a master bedroom, full bath, open kitchen and living room with Ikea cabinetry, two ground-level deck areas and a separate "flex room" with a second full bath and a second-story deck covered by a sail-like canopy. http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

29. i-House • "It does not look like your typical manufactured home," said Thayer Long with the Manufactured Housing Institute, a Washington-based group representing 370 manufactured and modular home-building companies. • And shattering those mobile home stereotypes is a good thing, he said. "I think the 'i-house' is just more proof that the industry is capable of delivering homes that are highly customizable at an affordable price.“ • Video Tour Clayton Homes "i-house" tour. http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html

30. Future Home Appliances Beautiful and Elegant Vera Kettle by Bugatti • VERA is an electronically controlled concept kettle design which brings together technology and elegance. • Achieves required temperature and ensures optimal and uniform heating for of each hot beverage. The touch buttons along with the display screen is embedded in the handle and the 360o base ensure easy operating. • The combination of latest technological developments and the stylish conical shape provides high thermal efficiency to significantly reduce energy consumption. • VERA is available in different colors. Designer : Andreas Seegatz http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances

31. Future Home Appliances Rolly Cook : Portable Oven Concept • Medical researches have shown that burnt food is always harmful for human body and are linked with the expansion of cancer cells. • So, in order to keep your food unburned, you need to swirl it regularly. • Rolly Cook is a portable oven concept that can efficiently do this. This handy tool reduces the risk of burning your food in an innovative and well-designed way. It includes a central mechanism that spins two cylindrical containers on both sides. This continuous movement of the containers averts the risk of food burning. http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances

32. Future Home Appliances Rolly Cook : Portable Oven Concept Designer : Jin-Young Lee http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances

33. Future Home Appliances Portable Iron with Two Heating Plates • Features a rail mechanism that allows the user to transform the smart box easily into an iron. • Not intended for massive number of clothes, this will useful when you are on a trip. • This iron includes two heating plates placed one on another with a spring between them. This two plate design will allow easier ironing of the collar by simply putting it between them and gently heating. • This iron can be operated on standard electrical power when you need full heating power. Additionally, it works also on battery when you are roaming. Designer : Apostol Tnokovski http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances

34. Future Home Appliances Modular Recycle Bin • Designed in a traditional and simple shape, it offers the user a wide range of functions. • Recycled materials have been used to produce the bin and the most wonderful feature is its three adjustable interior compartments. • These are made of plastic, glass and tin, and acts like a water bladder that can change size according to the inserted items in the individual compartments. • Other noteworthy features are large wheels, extendable handles, step-to-open lid, interior rinse function, extendable interior space and fourth slot for recycling cardboard. Designer : Dave Strydom http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances

35. Future Home Appliances aXbo Sleep Phase Alarm Clock • The aXbo sleep phase alarm clock gives the user the feeling of having woken up all by himself. • Crucial for its functional design were the latest findings in sleep research. Studies show that we pass through several sleep phases each night, alternating between deep sleep, light sleep and dream phases. • Each of these phases is characterized by different body motions. The sleep phase alarm clock uses the activity that occurs in each of these phases. • A motion detection system has been integrated into a comfy terry-cloth wristband, memorizing all physical motions and transmitting them to the alarm clock. The aXbo registers which sleep phase the user is in at any time, and calculates the optimal wake-up moment within 30 minutes of the desired wake-up time. This turns waking up into a gentle experience makes for a smooth and relaxed start to the day. http://www.tuvie.com/category/gadgets/clock Designer : Rouven Haas

36. Caregiver Internet Monitoring Camera System • Monitor your loved one LIVE over the internet. See what is going on at their home. 24 hrs/dy. • You can do a lot to keep your elderly loved one at home instead of a nursing home. We all know that mentally and physically they are better off at home. • Provide them with tools that help them be independent including many home automation products like motion activated faucets, talking caller id boxes, voice activated products and more. • One of the most important ideas is to install a LIVE video monitoring system in their home. This will give them the security of knowing that someone is looking out for them. This will also give you the comfort and security to know exactly who was there. How they treated your loved one and ensure that your loved one is ok. http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx

37. Caregiver Internet Monitoring Camera System • This system from Assistive Technology Services a pan and tilt camera can be installed in the most suitable location to monitor your loved one at the most critical areas of the home where accidents may occur the most. More cameras can be installed if the area is large. • The system will automatically take snapshots from 5 second intervals and up. You can then review all these snapshots from any web browser. You can also connect and view LIVE video 24 hours a day remotely. • The great thing is that this can be done by the entire family. As many people can attach at the same time as you give security access. • This system saves those trips to 'check-up' on them and provides a great feeling of comfort to both you and your loved one. http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx

38. Automated Homes for the Elderly Eaton Holec’s Xanura home automation system • Until now home automation appliances and equipment have been mainly geared to making life easier and more convenient. By contrast the Xanura care concept places emphasis on safety features as it largely addresses the needs of the elderly, be they living alone or as a couple and leading quite independent lives in a house or apartment. http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163

39. Automated Homes for the Elderly Eaton Holec’s Xanura home automation system features • All lights are switched on if the resident or the system triggers an alarm. • Certain, non-essential electrical equipment and all equipment that produces sound (radio, TV, etc.) is automatically switched off when an alarm is given. • The social services care control can remotely let the dedicated/specified care giver into the home. • Activity tracking is continuous, so that were the resident to have been inactive (ie. not pressed a button or passed a movement sensor) for a given time period, an alarm is automatically set off. • When the resident gets out of bed during the night, a passageway to the bathroom is automatically lit. • The home can be set to day or night mode from the bedroom. • The home can be set to “at home” or “out” mode at the front door. • It incorporates both automated fire alarm and intruder reporting systems. • All kitchen equipment is automatically switched on or off. http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163

40. Automated Homes for the Elderly • The personal alarm unit is located in the living room (in this example, it is the unit located in front of the TV on the right). • The resident can set off a social services alarm himself or herself, when he or she feels unwell for example, by pressing the red button of the transponder. It can be worn on the wrist or neck. http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163

41. Automated Homes for the Elderly • There is a fall line in the bathroom. This sets off an alarm to the social services center when activated. http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163

42. Automated Homes for the Elderly • Voice activation http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163

43. Summary • Motivated by elderly parent, I chose to explore latest, near and further future home design and product ideas. • I hope this has provided some useful insight and creative thinking.

44. Discussion • Futurist Methodology • Possible Future • Probable Future • Preferable Future

45. Links • Home Automation/Environmental Control/Electronic Aids for Daily Living (EADL) http://www.makoa.org/ecu.htm • Home Automation http://home-automation.org/ • Assistive Technology Services http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_System_75383.aspx • and http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/CaregiverSolutions.aspx • Xanura website: www.xanura.nl • Xanura demo home with internet access: http://portal.homeautomationeurope.com/hae/hcb/demo2/index.html • Other links included in preceding slides