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Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism

Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism. Democratic Federalism – An Intensive Course offered to Iraqi University Faculty by the Forum of Federations – Amman, June 18 to July 5, 2007. Outline. Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity

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Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism

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  1. Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism Democratic Federalism – An Intensive Course offered to Iraqi University Faculty by the Forum of Federations – Amman, June 18 to July 5, 2007

  2. Outline • Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity • Successful federal experiences: The United Arab Emirates • Failed “federal” experiences: The United Arab Republic and the Yemeni unification process • Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding: Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?

  3. Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity • Diversity in the Arab World: • Sources of diversity: ethnicity, language, and religion • Historical expressions of diversity • Provinces, governorates under the various Arab/Islamic empires • The millet system under the Ottoman empire • Unity in the Arab World: • The concept of the Umma • Arab nationalism – al qawmiyya al `arabiyya

  4. Successful federal experiences : The United Arab Emirates(1) Context and Prerequisites • A history of past cooperation – The Trucial States (from 1820-1892 to 1971) • A hostile regional environment – federalism as a bulwark against strong neighbours • Extensive border disputes – federalism as a mechanism of conflict-management • Extremely diverse units – asymmetrical federalism?

  5. Successful federal experiences : The United Arab Emirates(2) Characteristics • A flexible and creatively ambiguous constitution • A founding (and renewed) compromise between wahdawis and ittihadis • A social compact based on rentierism • Supportive institutional structures

  6. Failed “federal” experiences : (1)The United Arab Republic (1958-1961) • Context and prerequisites • Two competing visions: one quasi-federal, the other unitary • A union of equal partners: Coming together and staying apart • Domestic political struggles in Syria: Baathists vs. Communists • A consecration of Arab unity: Melding together • The aura of Gamal ‘Abd al-Nasser and the weight of Egypt • Plebiscite and the ratification of the Union • Characteristics • An unstable bipolar arrangement • No geographic contiguity • High asymmetry in size and capacity • Authoritarianism at the center • Egyptian dominance of political life and of the Syrian administration

  7. Failed “federal” experiences: (2) Yemeni unification (1990-1994) • Context and prerequisites • The end of the Cold War • The discovery of oil and natural gas in the contested border area between North and South Yemen • but ... the decision to back Iraq in its invasion of Kuwait • Characteristics • Two widely divergent systems

  8. Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (1):Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan? • Lebanon • Regions, what regions? • An extremely intermingled country – 17 minorities none of which (with the exception of the Druze community) is geographically concentrated • A logic of economic and administrative centralization – the overwhelming dominance of Greater Beirut • A problem of trust • A divided identity in a troubled regional context –The National Pact of 1943 • Unity vs. diversity: Federal proposals and majoritarian democracy • An existing alternative: • A history of consociational powersharing

  9. Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (2):Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan? • Sudan • An extremely complex Comprehensive Peace Agreement • Building trust • Through institutions: Proportional division of power at the center • Overnight: A relatively short transitional period – 6 years from 2005 to the scheduled 2011 referendum with a 2009 democratic election deadline • Building capacity under duress: The creation of a new large region (Government of South Sudan) • A gap between the text of the CPA and the practice of the Government of National Unity under the stewardship of the ruling National Congress Party • Unity over diversity: • Concentration of power and decision-making responsibility in the Presidency – rule by decree • A breach of trust • Pairing agreement in the attribution of ministries is not respected • Only 40 SPLM/A members in the GNU • No meaningful inclusion of SPLM/A in the civil service and other national institutions

  10. Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (3):Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan? • Sudan • Serious flashpoints • The Abyei problem • The management of oil • Complicated by internal and external factors • Internal factors • The lack of NCP political will • The lack of SPLM/A capacity • The death of John Garang • External factors • The Ugandan LRA and the security situation in South Sudan • Chad and the support to Darfur rebels

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