international trends in environmental regulations for vehicles

1. 1 International Trends in Environmental Regulations for Vehicles Santiago, Chile May 13, 2008 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Chairman, Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation

2. Major Global Trends Environmental Concerns Increasing Particles Global Warming Cleaner and Cleaner Technologies Entering Marketplace Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles Passenger Cars Motorcycles Cleaner Fuels Increasingly Critical Sulfur Levels Approaching Zero Lead Almost Gone; MMT Increasing Concern

4. Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002 4

5. 5 One Result: Serious Health Concerns WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM Numerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. No Evidence of a Threshold Ozone, NO2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns

6. Slide 6 PM10 in Major cities These are estimated annual average concentrations of PM10 in cities with populations over 100,000 and in national capital cities The darkest spots are heavily concentrated in regions of China and India. Other areas of note include Indonesia, Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula, and West Africa These are estimated annual average concentrations of PM10 in cities with populations over 100,000 and in national capital cities The darkest spots are heavily concentrated in regions of China and India. Other areas of note include Indonesia, Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula, and West Africa

10. Transportation sector priorities 10

11. Slide 11

13. Technologies such as the advanced Three Way Catalyst are continuing to evolve in response to the tighter standards.Technologies such as the advanced Three Way Catalyst are continuing to evolve in response to the tighter standards.

14. Diesel Particulate Filters Technologies such as the diesel PM filter are maturingTechnologies such as the diesel PM filter are maturing

15. How The Trap Functions

16. Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition

18. 18 Current DPF Applications Pictures of current DPF applications Today, more than 800 000 cars are equipped wit DPFs in EUPictures of current DPF applications Today, more than 800 000 cars are equipped wit DPFs in EU

19. Engine ECM SCR algorithm functions will reside in the ECM (IEM approach) Determines the injection rate Tank control and diagnostics Controls the pump and reports pump diagnostics Doser Pump Injects the urea at the rate requested by the engine ECM by using air pressure Maintains and reports diagnostics status of the pump (via J1939) Tank Fill tank for the urea Contains heater and sensor for urea level/quality/temperature (quality consists of concentration and contamination levels) Exhaust Gas Processor (EGP) Canned Catalyst Inlet and Outlet Temperature sensors Engine ECM SCR algorithm functions will reside in the ECM (IEM approach) Determines the injection rate Tank control and diagnostics Controls the pump and reports pump diagnostics Doser Pump Injects the urea at the rate requested by the engine ECM by using air pressure Maintains and reports diagnostics status of the pump (via J1939) Tank Fill tank for the urea Contains heater and sensor for urea level/quality/temperature (quality consists of concentration and contamination levels) Exhaust Gas Processor (EGP) Canned Catalyst Inlet and Outlet Temperature sensors

20. 20 Emissions control system for Euro VI Oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyst-based particulate filter and urea-SCR with ammonia slip catalyst (ASC). System description �one shot� design � no optimisation of component sizes etc. Note advanced urea dosing system � low dose because low EO NOx 1st NOx sensor for monitoring. Not closed-loop control. Urea dosing calibrated for ESC, ETC and WHTC only. System description �one shot� design � no optimisation of component sizes etc. Note advanced urea dosing system � low dose because low EO NOx 1st NOx sensor for monitoring. Not closed-loop control. Urea dosing calibrated for ESC, ETC and WHTC only.

21. California�s ZEV History

22. ZEV - Status

23. Near-Zero Emission Vehicles Lifetime emissions (VOC+NOx) Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs) Currently 20 models for sale, including 4 HEVs 250,000 annual sales (14%) in 2005 1,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)

24. Near-Zero Emission Vehicles

25. Fleet Demonstrations

26. ZEV Technology Review - CARB

27. Plug In Hybrids Are Emerging

28. Electric bikes in China, P.R. Top speed of between 20 � 30kph and a range of 25 � 100 km During operation they emit zero local air pollution, but they do use about 2 kWh of electricity per 100 km Power ranges between 200 - 600 W and they take around 6 � 8 hours to charge Top speed of between 20 � 30kph and a range of 25 � 100 km During operation they emit zero local air pollution, but they do use about 2 kWh of electricity per 100 km Power ranges between 200 - 600 W and they take around 6 � 8 hours to charge

29. Which Countries Are Getting Clean Technologies? Clean Fuels Stringent Standards Including Advanced Technology Mandates Strong Incentives Economic Other

30. My Global Vision For 2015 Every New Diesel Has PM Filter & Low NOx Gasoline Vehicles Approaching ZERO Emissions Hybrid Technologies (Including Plug In Hybrids) Are Mature, Widespread Technology Small Battery Electric Vehicles (City) Vehicles Widely Used Fuel Cell Vehicle Numbers Increasing

31. What Is The Situation Today in Santiago Good Fuel Quality < 50 PPM Sulfur But Not Taking Advantage of This To Introduce Diesel Filters Widely � Should Be Highest Priority Much Cleaner Gasoline Vehicles Are Feasible, Especially With Low S in 2009 Incentives For Hybrids Could Be Expanded

32. A Short Term Plan For Santiago Tighten Requirements Sufficiently To Require PM Filters on New Diesel Cars and Buses Lower Diesel Sulfur to 10/15 PPM Introduce Euro 5 or Tier 2 Bin 5 for All New Cars and Light Trucks Introduce Euro 3 For Motorcycles Implement ASM Based Centralized I/M For All Light Duty Vehicles

34. Europe Overview 2007 Developments Light Duty Euro 5 & 6 Adopted (Too Slow But # Added) Truck & Bus Euro VI Proposed By Commission

40. When we develop our regulations, we estimate the health benefits and associated costs. In addition to public health benefits � there are other benefits: improved visibility, reduced acid rain, etc.When we develop our regulations, we estimate the health benefits and associated costs. In addition to public health benefits � there are other benefits: improved visibility, reduced acid rain, etc.

41. The Benefits Far Outweigh The Costs Time and time again, we find that the benefits far exceed the costs of reducing pollution from vehicles. We know that many people may ask---so what does this mean in the Chinese context, in light of different income levels, etc. In session three after lunch we will hear a very important presentation on a �Cost-Benefit Analysis for Chinese Clean Fuel Promotion� by Tsinghua University and the International Council on Clean Transportation. Without stealing the spotlight from the presenters this afternoon, I think it is fair to say that the presentation that China could also realize substantial benefits from a similar clean fuel and vehicle program.Time and time again, we find that the benefits far exceed the costs of reducing pollution from vehicles. We know that many people may ask---so what does this mean in the Chinese context, in light of different income levels, etc. In session three after lunch we will hear a very important presentation on a �Cost-Benefit Analysis for Chinese Clean Fuel Promotion� by Tsinghua University and the International Council on Clean Transportation. Without stealing the spotlight from the presenters this afternoon, I think it is fair to say that the presentation that China could also realize substantial benefits from a similar clean fuel and vehicle program.

43. ZEV Program

44. ZEV Technology Review - CARB

45. China

46. Status of Air Quality

47. China�s GDP

48. Urbanization Rate in China

49. New Vehicle Sales Are Booming

50. Crude oil prod�n & consum�n

51. Motor Vehicle Growth Forecast

52. China Overview 2007 Developments Euro 3 (Euro III) Standards Introduced Nationally Euro 4 (IV) Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008) 50 PPM Sulfur Adopted by Beijing (January 1, 2008) MMT Maximum Reduced From 18 to 16 Nationally and to 6 in Beijing SEPA Now Ministry of Environmental Protection Looking Ahead Continue Clean Fuels Push Introduce Euro 4 (IV) Nationally Accelerate in Other Cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen,) Compliance Program Retrofits

53. Electric bikes in China, P.R. Top speed of between 20 � 30kph and a range of 25 � 100 km During operation they emit zero local air pollution, but they do use about 2 kWh of electricity per 100 km Power ranges between 200 - 600 W and they take around 6 � 8 hours to charge Top speed of between 20 � 30kph and a range of 25 � 100 km During operation they emit zero local air pollution, but they do use about 2 kWh of electricity per 100 km Power ranges between 200 - 600 W and they take around 6 � 8 hours to charge

54. Hong Kong�s Approach 1/1/2006 � New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro 4 standards 1/1/2006 � New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards 1/1/2007 � Light Trucks Between 2.5-3.5 tons Meet Euro 4 standards 10/1/2006 � New standards will be Introduced for Trucks over 3.5 tons ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required; Lower Sulfur Fuels (10 PPM) Encouraged By Tax Policy 54

55. India

56. Vehicle population growth in India

57. New Vehicle Standards in India Entire Country Euro 2 � April 2005 Euro 3 � April 2010 Major Cities Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Euro 3 in 2005 & Euro 4 in 2010 Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles Euro 3 From April 2005 Euro 4 From April 2010

58. Brazil

59. Brazil Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997 Tier 1 Phased in 2005-2007 (40/70/100%) FedLev in 2009 (Phase in) No Diesel Cars Allowed Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses Euro 3 Phased in 2004-2006 Euro 4 in 2009 Fuels See Diesel Fuel Phase In Schedule Gasoline S from 1000 to 400 in 2004 & to 80 in 2008

63. Life-cycle Emission Control

64. The Current Situation in Santiago Fuel Quality Gasoline � 15 PPM Sulfur in 2009 Diesel � 50 PPM Sulfur; 15 PPM in ? Light Duty Vehicles Gasoline � US Tier 1 or Euro 3 Diesel CA Tier 1 or Euro 4 Medium Duty Vehicles Tier 1 or Euro 3 Heavy Duty Bus and Truck US EPA 98 or Euro III

65. Resultados homologaci�n diesel EURO IV por modelo

66. Resultados homologaci�n diesel EURO IV por modelo

67. Resultados homologaci�n EPA por modelo grs/km (CO y HC)

68. Resultados homologaci�n EPA por modelo gr/km (Nox)

69. Motorcycles Increasing Rapidly

70. Bellagio Principles Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System New Vehicle Standards for Greenhouse Emissions & Conventional Pollutants Should Be Fuel Neutral Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide � in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries

71. Priority #1: Reduce Diesel PM New Light Duty Diesel Fueled Vehicles (Cars and Medium Trucks) Should Meet Tier 2 Bin 5 in 2010, or Euro 5 in 2010 New Buses Should Meet Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter; After 10/15 PPM Sulfur Fuel is Available, Either: US EPA 2010 or Euro VI

72. New Diesel Trucks City Trucks (Sticker Enforced) Euro III Plus Diesel Particulate Filter National Trucks Euro IV Standards International Trucks Euro III Standards

73. Priority #2: Reduce NOx, Other Toxic Emissions Light Duty Gasoline Fueled Vehicles Should Meet Either Tier 2 bin 5 in 2010 or Euro 5 in 2010 Motorcycles Adopt Euro 3 Standards by 2010

74. Priority #3: Improve Fuel Quality Reduce Sulfur in Diesel Fuel to 10/15 PPM

75. Priority #4: Implement I/M ASM Loaded Test Procedure Throughout Santiago Centralized Testing Facilities Gradually Tighter In Use Standards

76. Priority #5: Incentivize Advanced Technologies Currently: Hybrids Get Immunity From Annual Tax For Several Years � Shows Great Leadership!