1 / 13

Dynamic school network planning with regard to school choice and travel-to-school mode choice

Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute of Logistics and Aviation. Chair of Business Administration, Transport and Logistics. Dynamic school network planning with regard to school choice and travel-to-school mode choice. Sven Müller.

Renfred
Télécharger la présentation

Dynamic school network planning with regard to school choice and travel-to-school mode choice

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute of Logistics and Aviation Chair of Business Administration, Transport and Logistics Dynamic school network planningwith regard to school choice and travel-to-school mode choice Sven Müller Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers San Francisco, USA April, 17.-21. 2007

  2. S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3 1.1 Problem definition 10 year old students in Dresden => Fewer number of school locations => Locational cost saving BUT longer ways to school => Change in travel-to-school mode choice => Increase of travel cost Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  3. Socio-demographic and socio-economic data Mobility survey „Students of Dresden“ Spatial data of Dresden School choice model (MMNL) subject to distance, profile and authority Travel mode choice model (MNL) subject to distance and car availability Model for dynamic school network planning 1.2 Approach Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  4. 2.1 School choice modelling Mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL) Train, K.E. (2003): Discrete choice methods with simulation, Cambridge. • Felxible stochastic part of utility function yields random taste variation and incorporates unobserved attributes • Maximum simulated likelihood estimation (MSLE) • Enumeration: unconditional choice probabilities have to be computed by simulation as well Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  5. 2.2 Results Number of observations: 3704Number of draws: 1000rho-square: 0.436all variables significant on 95%-level Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  6. 3.1 Travel-to-school mode choice modelling Multinomial logit model (MNL) • Stochastic part of the utility function is i.i.d. extreme value! • Closed-form estimation is possible ("analytically") => no simulation • No substitution patterns expected and fixed choice set supposed Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  7. 3.2 Results Number of observations: 9300 rho-square: 0.621 all variables significant on 99%-level, except * (95%) reference alternative: car/motorcycle Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  8. 4.1 Location model Sets Parameters Variables Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  9. Set : Parameter : 4.1 Location model • Total nr. of students attending school s in scenario w and period t determined by school choice model (MMNL, section 2): • must notexceed the maximum capacity of s (nr. of students) • must comply minimum constraints: • - minimum number of students per class • - minimum number of classes per grade • Fix locational cost of each school • Variable cost of each school (per student) • Depending on nr. of attending students • Includes cost of possible capacity reduction and expansion • Transport cost (per student) • Determined by travel-to-school mode choice model (MNL, section 3) • Related to distance and mode (incl. compensation payments for public transport service) Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  10. 4.1 Location model Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  11. 4.2 Results Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  12. 5. Summary • Travel-to-school mode choice dependent on distance,car availability (public transportation – car/motorcycle), weather (cycling - other travel-to-school modes) • School choice determinated by distance,profile and authority, among others • Increasing transportation cost and additional burden of students (and parents respectively) have to be opposed with savings in infrastructure cost in case of school closures. • Simultaneous modelling of travel-to-school mode choice and school choice using a simultaneous equation system with latent utility • Column generation approach • Develop a model which maximizes students utility Sven Müller, MA: Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

  13. Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute for Transport and Economics Chair of Business Administration, Transport and Logistics Sven Mueller, M.A.Dresden University of TechnologyInstitute of Logistics and AviationChair of Business Administration, Transport and Logisticssven.mueller@tu-dresden.de http://www.vbl-dresden.de

More Related