Waterfowl and Climate Change: Issues and Implications

1. Waterfowl and Climate Change:Issues and Implications Sonja M. Smith

2. The Nature of the Problem • Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2)…

3. The Nature of the Problem • Rising global temperatures…

4. The Nature of the Problem • Changing precipitation patterns…

5. The Nature of the Problem • Rising sea levels, • Mounting climactic variability, • And, more (often) extreme climactic events…

6. The Nature of the Problem • Anthropogenic land cover change further confounds the issue… Johannesburg, South Africa Morenci Mine, Morenci, AZ

7. Climate Change and Wetlands… • Important breeding grounds • Congregation sites throughout the year/migration • Important winter habitat • Biodiversity hotspots in arid regions Basque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, NM

8. Waterfowl • Provide important ecosystem goods, annually: • 12 million hunting days • 46 million birders • Integral component of natural ecosystems • Critical role in wildlife policy development • National Wildlife Refuge System

9. Waterfowl and Climate Change • Coastal/Inland wetland habitat loss • Breeding grounds • Migration corridors (flyways) • Stopover sites • Timing/distance travelled during migration Strong relationship between waterfowl & water conditions

10. The Migratory Flyways • 1) Pacific • 2) Central • 3) Mississippi • 4) Atlantic 3 1 2 4

11. Pacific Flyway • Habitat loss from rising sea levels/encroaching development • ↓ snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt = ↓ summer water • 10-30 days earlier • 11% decrease in snowpack • Cascades: 30-60% decline in snowmelt-derived water

12. Central Flyway • Water regulation/diversion (dams) • Reduction in open channels/marshes • Sandhill Cranes, Whooping Cranes • ↓ snowpack/higher temperatures • Limited water availability for humans/other species • The Prairie Pothole Region

13. Mississippi Flyway • Water/shoreline habitat loss in Great Lakes… • 19-39% decline in duck numbers • Drop in water levels (up to 2.4’) • Decline in SAV • Increasing contaminant levels • Gulf Coast sea-level rise  45% coastal habitat loss • Canvasbacks, Redheads, Lesser Scaup

14. Atlantic Flyway • Sea-level rise (up to 15”) confounded by development • Canvasback, American Black Duck, Northern Pintail, American Wigeon, Greater & Lesser Scaup, Ring-necked Duck, Green-winged Teal, Mottled Duck, Wood Duck, Fulvous Whistling Duck, Tundra Swan

15. Chesapeake Bay • One of the top wintering waterfowl areas in N. America • >1 million waterfowl • Exacerbation of pollution effects • Decline in SAV • Degradation in water quality • Warming temperatures • Increasing human population • Area already abandoned by Northern Pintail, Redhead, American Wigeon

16. North America’s duck factory Central Flyway • 10% breeding habitat • Produces 50-80% N. America’s ducks • >75% harvested ducks Mississippi Flyway Prairie Pothole Region Pacific Flyway

17. Climate Projections

18. Climate Change and the PPR • Palmer draught severity index (PDSI) • GCMs and sensitivity simulations to predict habitat conditions/project future duck numbers • Correlation between: • pond numbers and PDSI • breeding duck numbers and PDSI • 2020s: mild drought, PDSI = -1.41 • May pond numbers decline by 23% • Duck population decline by 26%

19. Climate Change and the PPR • 2050s: moderate drought, PDSI = -2.59 • May Pond numbers decrease by 38% • Duck population decline by 46%

20. Northern forest/tundra (CAN and AK) • 20% N. American breeding waterfowl • Wintering habitat for 50% Pacific Flyway birds • Arctic region is the fastest warming • Loss of important tundra habitat • Lesser Scaup, Surf Scoter, White-winged Scoter

21. Migration • Species expected to skirt their ranges northwards and eastwards • Shift in wintering areas • i.e., Lithuania Mallards • Shortening migration routes • Take-off/Arrival times noticeably earlier

22. Effects on waterfowl • Decrease breeding frequency • Reduce clutch sizes • Shorten breeding season • Decrease re-nesting frequency • Decrease nest success • Lower brood survival • Lower recruitment + constant mortality = declining populations

23. Management Implications • Climate change is detracting for many waterfowl species, but… • Habitat loss/other related anthropogenic effects on the environment confound this! • Repercussions of habitat loss and climate change may be mitigated by the distribution of remaining habitat …

24. Management Implications • YOU as future managers: • Predict areas important for waterfowl in the future • Set aside larger areas, buffering zones • YOU as citizens, hunters, bird-watchers…

25. Ducks Unlimited • Grassroots, volunteer-based organization • Conserves, restores, and manages wetlands and associated habitats for N. America’s waterfowl • 792,638 members (as of 1 January 2008) • 12,283,871 acres since 1937 • $2.70 billion since 1937 • http://www.ducks.org/conservation/

26. Ducks Unlimited

27. Acknowledgements • Dr. Bill Mannan • Geoffrey Palmer • Clay Bowers

28. Questions?