solutions for the 21st century

1. solutions for the 21st century safeguarding our future

2. Surety Science & Engineering Provides Reliability, Safety, and Security to our Future Surety is... Reliability in normal environments Safety in abnormal environments Security & Use Control in malevolent environments

3. Our Increasingly Complex World Demands Surety The 50-year history in developing and applying surety principles has provided the nation with a nuclear weapons program that has never experienced the unthinkable—an accidental nuclear detonation. The very same surety science and engineering principles are being used to address national problems and safeguard Americans. The same systematic approach that incorporates modeling and simulation, testing and evaluation, risk management, reliability development, and physical security can also safeguard Americans in the way they live and work, and as they move into the progressively complex future. Ever Growing Complexity Failure in this increasingly complex world has escalating consequences.

4. Surety Science and Engineering: So That Things are Sure to Work Until the advent of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and other high- consequence events, we were satisfied to understand why and how things worked. • Human Intent • Accidents • Acts of Nature Desired Results Science Law or Events (A) (C) To prevent catastrophes, now we must go further and understand why and how things fail—so that things are sure to work. • All other Science Laws or Events • All other Engineering • All other Results

5. Partnerships will Provide Surety Solutions to the Challenges and Threats of the 21st Century Surety Science and Engineering requires public-private partnerships. • Managing the increasing complexity of interdependent systems • Safe, secure, and reliable energy • Reliable infrastructures • No accidental nuclear detonations • Countering physical and cyber terrorism • Countering chemical or biological weapons • Countering crime • Safe and secure schools • Solutions for aviation safety and security • A credible nuclear deterrent • Solutions for aging infrastructure • Solutions for an aging nuclear stockpile "If our nation and our precious freedoms are worth defending with the threat of annihilation, we are surely worth defending by defensive means that ensure our survival." –President Reagan

6. The Need for an Institute for Surety Science and Engineering Surety Science and Engineering can be fully developed by a partnership of universities, industry, and government agencies and their national laboratories. “Because so many key components of our society are operated by the private sector, we must create a genuine public-private partnership to protect America in the 21st century.” –President Clinton Development Application Institute for Surety Science and Engineering Research Education

7. Surety will Build a Stronger, Safer America Against the Spectrum of Threats The higher the consequence, the higher the level of surety must be deployed. With surety discipline • Common body of knowledge, based on well-accepted principles • Better emphasis on the balance of safety, reliability, security and use control • Government and industry understand risk and know how and when to mitigate it • Systems are performance based—therefore measurable • Establish a new discipline of surety, which is taught in our universities and increases knowledge and application LEVEL IV Laws of nature and mathematics LEVEL III Positive measures from science and engineering LEVEL II Proactive human intervention LEVEL I Working sufficiently as expected

8. Surety Science and Engineering is An Evolving Discipline that needs Your Support Each high-consequence system, infrastructure, and threat will have its own surety solution, developed and implemented over time. The cost of a national program to apply surety to our 21st century threats and challenges is small compared to the consequences of: – a cascading failure of our infrastructures – preventable acts of physical or cyber terrorism or use of chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction – an airliner crash with fatalities The benefits of a national surety program are compelling.

9. Sandia’s Heritage and Surety Approach Assured reliability, safety, security and use control of nuclear weapons Attain surety based in laws of nature and mathematics –level 4 Unique Thinking Improved fundamental understanding of how things work–and how things fail Advancements from investigations into extended life of stockpile Predictable safe response even in event of failures Unique Design Principles Identify and isolate critical components Assure fail-safe performance based on fundamental physical principles Operate only by unique signals that cannot be replicated in nature Our primary mission is nuclear weapons engineering

10. Sandia’s Surety Approach Condition Assessment Emergency Management Surveillance Testing Quality Instruments Telemetry Approaches to emergency management should a weapons accident occur– information collection and management, decision support, training and exercise planning–could benefit society in planning for other high-consequence events Micromachines Independent Assessment Advancements to improve surety LEVEL IV Laws of nature and mathematics LEVEL III Positive measures from science and engineering

11. Surety Dividends Society has benefited from the technologiesdeveloped for nuclear weapons surety Clean rooms enabled a $960 billion worldwide electronics industry and revolutionized surgery and pharmaceutical practices. Detection and sensing technologies led to new medical instruments, crime fighting systems, explosives detection for airports, airbags, and chemical and environmental analysis tools. In the near future, society will see even greater benefits from our surety efforts– intelligent micro-machines (the “second silicon revolution”) will enhance safety and security; modeling and simulations coupled with unprecedented computer power will revolutionize engineering; and advancements in science and failure analysis will enhance reliability.

12. Fifty Years of Surety Experience Provide the Foundation for Protecting our Critical Infrastructures Infrastructures are growing more interdependent Infrastructures–the framework of interdependent networks and systems that provides a continual flow of goods and services essential to the defense and economic security of the United States

13. Our Infrastructure Faces New Threats The U.S. has recognizedour vulnerability to these threatsand has responded by theformation of the Presidential Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection andsigning of the Presidential Decision Directive 63 Physical Threats - Terrorist - Aging and degradation - Natural disaster Cyber Threats - Malicious intrusion - Inadvertent error - Insider threat System Complexity - Increasing number of interconnections and automation - Cascading effects - Increasing interdependencies

14. Cascading Failures Western Power Outage 8-10-96 Kansas City Air Traffic Control Center Outage 12-18-97 San Francisco Power Outage 10-23-97 Satellite Outage 5-19-98 Auckland Power Outage 2-20-98 through 3-27-98

15. Surety Solutions for Protecting Our Infrastructures • Vital issues processes • Consequence based analysis • Modeling of interdependencies • Indications and warnings system concepts • Information surety • U.S. infrastructure assurance roadmaps

16. Integrated Approach to Nuclear Reactor Surety Model Development and Simulation Experimental Facilities Risk Assessment and Management

17. Surety in Nuclear Materials Management Used as Declared in Normal Conditions Secure in Hostile Conditions Safe in Abnormal Conditions A Process from Cradle-to-Grave

18. Software Surety Techniques Ariane 5 Missile Launch Sandia is developing surety techniques for the specification, construction, and immunology for high-consequence software systems Visualizing Mathematical Specifications Rigorously Verifiable Software Construction Systems ImmunologyTM

19. Electronics Reliability and Vulnerability Affordable Superiority Nation’s Security Nation’s Economy Strategic Technologies Strategic Partnerships University of New Mexico and Sandia Nationally Televise Electronics Reliability Courses With New Technology Comes New Failure Modes • Leveraging the commercial electronics industry to support national security applications • Education and training • Concurrent R&D to make new technologies successful • Model-based building-in-reliability • Vulnerability assessment

20. Surety Principles are Making the Safest Air Transportation System in the World Even Safer The Flight Standards Service of the FAA has embraced surety principles as the basis for the next-generation Air Transportation Oversight System. Surety principles, including improved data quality and appropriate information management, offer enhanced aviation safety for the American public.

21. Physical Terrorism/ Architectural Surety Physical Terrorism Architectural Surety Blast Structure Computational Simulation Natural Disasters Window Glass Fragmentation Chemical and Biological Weapons Risk Management Structural Health Monitoring Virtual Reality

22. Fighting Crime and Terrorism Testing of Product Performance Claims Bomb Disablement Tools and Advanced Training Fluorescent Evidence Detector

23. Fighting Crime and Terrorism Explosives Detection Portal Virtual Reality Training More Secure Environments

24. Constraints • Little funding • No training in security technologies • Privacy issues • Poorly-paid security personnel • No technology/maintenance infrastructure in place • Schools are highly visible and need to be open Surety Needs • Take humans out of mundane tasks • Security technologies that maintain themselves • Develop AI systems that make security recommendations School Security Problems • Guns • Drugs • Fights • Theft • Vandalism

25. Institute for Surety Science and Engineering Development Application Institute for Surety Science and Engineering Research Education