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The Studies

The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election Studies Richard Wyn Jones & Roger Scully Cardiff, 14 th January 2011. The Studies. The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496) The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625). Outline of Today’s Session. Purpose of Today

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The Studies

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  1. The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election StudiesRichard Wyn Jones & Roger ScullyCardiff, 14th January 2011

  2. The Studies • The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496) • The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625)

  3. Outline of Today’s Session • Purpose of Today • Aims of the Studies • Method, Research Design & Timetable • Content of the Surveys • Discussion

  4. Purpose of Today • Raising Profile and Impact of the Studies • Draw on Expertise to Improve the Studies • Maximise value of the Studies for the research community

  5. Purpose of the Studies: WRS • Understanding Referendum Voting Behaviour: Why vote? Why vote Yes / No? - Impact of Party Cues - National Identities & Sentiments - Performance Politics • Impact of the campaign on the referendum outcome • Broader contributions to design/conduct of referendum studies? • Good value and high impact study

  6. Purpose of the Studies: WES • Understanding Devolved Election Voting Behaviour: - Electoral participation - Vote Choice - Theories of Voting: Valence & the Three-Wales Model • Impact of devolved election campaigns • Public attitudes to devolution: - Structure and consistency of public preferences - Performance assessments and relationship to fundamental attitudes - Effect of attitudes to devolution on devolved election voting behaviour • Value, impact, and continuity with previous studies

  7. Method & Research Design WRS & WES deploy similar methods & designs: - Sample of voters (fieldwork: YouGov) - Pre and Post waves, with panel data - Pre: sample of c.2000; drawn on ‘rolling’ basis through 30 days prior to referendum / election (ie. c.500 per week) - Post: after referendum / election, all ‘Pre’ wave respondents approached; ‘top-up’ element to raise overall Post sample to 2000

  8. Timetable: WRS January Consultation event in Cardiff on survey content End-Jan Finalisation, pre- & post-referendum questionnaires; WRS/WES Website Feb – 2nd March Pre-referendum wave fieldwork (30 days) 3rd March REFERENDUM HELD March Post-referendum wave fieldwork June Cardiff Seminar on Findings July London Seminar; Data placed on website September Deposit of final datasets with UK Data Archive

  9. Timetable: WES January Consultation event in Cardiff on survey content March Finalisation, pre- & post-election questionnaires April – 4th May Pre-election wave fieldwork (30 days) 5th May ELECTION HELD May Post-election wave fieldwork September Cardiff Seminar on Findings; Data placed on website & deposited with UK Data Archive October London Seminar

  10. The Surveys, 1 • Drafts in place for Pre waves for WRS and (almost) WES • Many, but far from all, Pre questions also to be asked in Post waves. Post waves to have room for additional questions / subjects • Likely additional subjects for Post waves: • Experience of voting in the referendum / election • Attitudes to the process of voting • The AV referendum

  11. The Surveys, 2: WRS Pre Wave (Draft) Sections of Survey: • Media consumption & interest in politics • Referendum Voting: likelihood to vote & vote intention • Campaign perceptions • Perceptions of referendum vote implications • Political issues & govt performance • Attitudes to parties & leaders • Attitudes to devolution • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments, NAW voting intention, past vote recall • Political knowledge quiz

  12. The Surveys, 3: WES Pre Wave (Draft) Sections of Survey: • Media consumption & interest in politics • Voting in the NAW election: likelihood to vote, vote intention, past vote recall • Campaign perceptions • Political issues & govt performance • Attitudes to parties & leaders • Attitudes to devolution • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments • Political knowledge quiz

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