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Achieving Recovery in a Changed World - Cairns Economy Presentation

This presentation discusses recent movements and short to medium-term prospects for the Cairns economy in a changed world. It covers various factors such as unemployment rates, building approvals, tourism growth, and primary industries.

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Achieving Recovery in a Changed World - Cairns Economy Presentation

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  1. Recent Movements & Short / Medium Term Prospects “ACHIEVING RECOVERY IN A CHANGED WORLD” The Cairns Economy Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon Ref: J2368 | August 2010

  2. 2009 / 2010 ONE OF CAIRNS’ WORST YEARS Cummings Economics/August 2010

  3. 3 MONTH AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Far North Queensland Statistical Division 2008 2009 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  4. NUMBERS ON NEWSTART & YOUTH ALLOWANCE Far North Queensland Statistical Division 2009 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from DECVR data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  5. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH 2007/08FASTEST GROWING REGIONS IN AUSTRALIA (Stat. Div. in Aust.) Cummings Economics/August 2010

  6. RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  7. $M VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALSFar North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  8. LARGE CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN TROUBLE THE QANTAS / JETSTAR DECISION ON JAPANESE FLIGHTS THE WINDING BACK OF CYCLONE LARRY RECOVERY EXPENDITURE OTHER FACTORS CONTRIBUTING Cummings Economics/August 2010

  9. PRIVATE BUILDING APPROVALS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  10. 2009 FEDERAL MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PACKAGE CAIRNS REGION MISSES OUT Cummings Economics/August 2010

  11. CONSUMERS TIGHTEN BELT • CONSUMER DURABLES SALES DOWN • 3000 PLUS MINING WORKFORCE AFFECTED WITH FLOW-ON EFFECTS IN OTHER SECTORS . Cummings Economics/August 2010

  12. TOURISM RESOURCES - TOURISM GROWTHCAIRNS AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENTS (Excluding international transits) Source: Cummings Economics from CPA & Cairns Airports. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  13. TOURISM EXPENDITUREFAR NORTH QUEENSLAND Source: Cummings Economics from NVS & IVS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  14. GROSS FARMGATE VALUE OF AGRICULTURE & AQUACULTURE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND 2008-09 PRIMARY INDUSTRIES SECTOR HOLDS DOES NOT INCLUDE FISHING + FORESTRY + VALUE ADDED PROCESSING Source: Cummings Economics from DEEDI (Primary Industries Section). Cummings Economics/August 2010

  15. ‘000’s 151.0 151.2 148.0 146.9 146.8 144.3 145.8 145.1 142.3 EMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYED & TOTAL WORKFORCE Far North Stat Division – 3 Month Averages Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  16. OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA COMPARED 2008 2009 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from RBA data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  17. $AUST TO $US IN CENTS 2008 2009 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  18. COMPARATIVE BUILDING APPROVALS - GOVERNMENT Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  19. UNEMPLOYMENT RATEFAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  20. PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Cummings Economics/August 2010

  21. MINERAL PRICES Cummings Economics/August 2010

  22. ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN MINING CAIRNS FAR NORTH QUEENLAND Cummings Economics/August 2010

  23. ESTIMATE OF PROSPECTIVE ADDITIONAL OPERATIONS & EMPLOYMENT MINING IN FAR NORTH STAT DIVISION 18 OPERATIONS - 1700 ~ 2000 JOBS Cummings Economics/August 2010

  24. AREAS OF PRIMARY & SECONDARY ENGAGEMENT Cummings Economics/August 2010

  25. PASSENGER ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES – CAIRNS AIRPORT% CHANGE ON PREVIOUS YEAR 0% 2009 2010 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  26. TTNQ TOURISM MONITORJUNE & JULY 2010 Cummings Economics/August 2010

  27. TEMPORARY ELECTION UNCERTAINTIES Cummings Economics/August 2010

  28. BUILDING THE EDUCATION REVOLUTION $150M MOST NOW STARTED PEAK 2ND HALF 2010 WIND DOWN OVER 2011 STIMULUS PACKAGE SOCIAL HOUSING $90M MORE THAN HALF STARTED PEAK ACTIVITY 2ND HALF OF 2010 & INTO 1ST HALF 2011 REMOTE INDIGENOUS HOUSING $200M SLOW STARTING – MOST IN 2010/11 Cummings Economics/August 2010

  29. GOVERNMENT CONSTRUCTION Cummings Economics/August 2010

  30. CIVIL WORKS Cummings Economics/August 2010

  31. POSITIVES NEXT 12 MONTHS • TOURISM UPLIFT • MINING JOBS – SERVICES • PREVIOUSLY UNDERSUPPLIED GOVERNMENT SERVICES • NO LARGE OVERSUPPLY OF PROPERTY HAS DEVELOPED Cummings Economics/August 2010

  32. WORLD ECONOMY • RESERVE BANK AND INTEREST RATES • AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR • RETURNING CONFIDENCE – PERCEPTION OF THE REGION AMONG INVESTORS NEXT 12 MONTHS Cummings Economics/August 2010

  33. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  34. Cummings Economics/August 2010

  35. RECOVERING IN A CHANGED WORLD OF MASSIVE INDUSTRIALISATION IN ASIA • TOURISM RECOVERY JOINED BY • MAJOR NEW OPPORTUNITIES IN MINING & PRIMARY INDUSTRIES CAIRNS & PENINSULA AUSTRALIA Cummings Economics/August 2010

  36. TROPICAL TABLELANDS | GULF SAVANNAH | TORRES STRAITWESTERN CAPE | EASTERN CAPE | COOKTOWN DISTRICTGREAT BARRIER REEF | WORLD HERITAGE RAINFORESTS | SAVANNAH WOODLANDS

  37. Cummings Economics 38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870Ph: 40312888 | Email: cummings@cummings.net.au | Fax: 40311108 Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009www.cummings.net.au “ACHIEVING RECOVERY IN A CHANGED WORLD” The Cairns Economy Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon

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