Super-Regional Modeling Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team

1. Super-Regional Modeling Testbed Estuarine Hypoxia Team • Carl Friedrichs (VIMS) – Team Leader • Federal partners • David Green (NOAA-NWS) – Transition to operations at NWS • Lyon Lanerole (NOAA-CSDL) – Transition to operations at CSDL; CBOFS2 • Lewis Linker (EPA), Carl Cerco (USACE) – Transition to operations at EPA; CH3D, CE-ICM • Doug Wilson (NOAA-NCBO) – Integration w/observing systems at NCBO/IOOS • Non-federal partners • Marjorie Friedrichs (VIMS) – Metric development and model skill assessment • Ming Li (UMCES) – ROMS hydrodynamics in CB • Wen Long, Raleigh Hood (UMCES) – ChesROMS with NPZD water quality model • Scott Peckham (UC-Boulder) – Running multiple ROMS models on a single HPC cluster • Malcolm Scully (ODU) – ChesROMS with 1 term oxygen respiration model • Kevin Sellner (CRC) – Academic-agency liason; facilitator for model comparison • JianShen (VIMS) – SELFE, FVCOM, EFDC models in CB • John Wilkin, Julia Levin (Rutgers) – ROMS-Espresso + 7 other MAB hydrodynamic models

2. Today’s Workshop Goals • Identification of Next Set of Model Runs • Alternate wind forcing – NAM model winds vs. NARR hindcast/blended observations • Modified fresh water input – Should watersheds/groundwater be improved? • Modified vertical resolution – Does ROMS sigma grid under-resolve stratification? • Alternate ocean boundary – Climatology vs. MAB model output • Initial round of hypoxia formulations • Further Refining Key Variables and Metrics for Skill Assessment • Salinity • Density stratification • Velocity(?) • Comparison time window • Local oxygen values • Hypoxic volume • Target diagram (combines bias and RMS error) • Other skill scores? (e.g., Brier Score, Wilmott Score)

3. Additional Motivation:

4. From text of Chesapeake Bay Executive Order Action Plan for FY2011: • Action Item WQ 10.3: “NOAA will support research to implement a coupled Regional Ocean Modeling System – Water Quality hydrodynamic model for use in ecological forecasting.” • Action Item SS 4.3: “EPA will establish a Chesapeake Bay Analysis and Synthesis Center to facilitate the formation of synthesis teams of scientists and managers to focus on addressing key environmental issues.” • Action Item SS 5.3: “EPA will make the underlying computer code for all its Bay TMDL related models and tools readily accessible to partners and stakeholders through the Chesapeake Community Modeling Program website.” • Action Item SS 13.1: “Initiate the design and development of the Chesapeake Bay Data Enterprise system to share scientific data between partners.”

5. Refresh/Updates on Hydrodynamic Modeling • Hydrodynamic Model Output Delivered So Far (w/2 iterations): • CH3D (P. Wang, L. Linker, C. Cerco; EPA/USACE CBP) • ChesROMS (W. Long, R. Hood; UMCES) • CBOFS2 (L. Lanerolle, R. Patchen; NOAA-CSDL) • UMCES ROMS (Y. Li, M. Li; UMCES) • EFDC (J. Shen, B. Hong; VIMS) • Other CB Hydrodynamic Models Likely to be Added: • EFDC (J. Shen, B. Hong; VIMS) • CHIMP (S. Peckham; UC-Boulder)

6. EPA/USACE CBP CH3D Model 57000 grid points z-grid, Dz = 5 ft (Slide courtesy Ping Wang, CBPO)

7. Estuarine oxygen concentration CH3D has been “retired” from CBP EPA/USACE CE-QUAL-ICM forced by CH3D and detailed watershed inputs • Final run = 1985 – 2005. • It is not practical to rerun the final 57K grid CH3D model with alternate forcing. • EPA CBP plans next “release” of updated hydrodynamic model by 2017. • Successor hydrodynamic model has not been chosen, although USACE favors adding third dimension to an existing finite element inundation model. • Timing is ideal for Estuarine Hypoxia Team to provide guidance to CBP concerning favorable attributes of CB models. • CCMP is planning a June 2011 workshop to synthesize understanding of favorable CB model properties, including results through June of this SURA project. (Slide courtesy Rich Batiuk)