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Cameron S. Thraen OSUE Dairy Economist

Cameron S. Thraen OSUE Dairy Economist. Dairy Market Outlook. Prepared for the 2003 Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference August 14,15 Indianapolis, IN. Charles Dickens on the U.S. Dairy Economy…. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times,

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Cameron S. Thraen OSUE Dairy Economist

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  1. Cameron S. Thraen OSUE Dairy Economist DairyMarketOutlook Prepared for the 2003 Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference August 14,15 Indianapolis, IN

  2. Charles Dickens on the U.S. Dairy Economy… “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair”. Tale of Two Cities, Charles Dickens 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  3. A Dickens Economy… *Does not include MILC payments 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  4. 20 State Cows and Yields Turn Down… finally 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  5. Total U.S. milk productionslows its growth rate… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  6. Margins drive expansion… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  7. Regional Milk Production Trends… • West (CA, ID, NM, WA, TX) • Upper Midwest (WI, MN) • North East (NY, VT) • North Central (OH, MI, PA) • Midcentral (IA, IL, IN) 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  8. Cows in the West… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  9. Yields in the West… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  10. Cows in the UMW… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  11. Yields in the UMW… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  12. Cows in the NE… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  13. Yields in the NE… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  14. Cows in the NC… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  15. Yields in the NC… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  16. Cows in the MC… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  17. Yields in the MC… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  18. Big West vs. Big East… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  19. Use, Inventories and all that jazz… • Commercial Disappearance (MF) • Stocks to Production Ratios • Butter and Cheese • U.S. All Milk Price 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  20. Commercial Disappearance in all products (milkfat basis)… Source: USDA/ERS/AMS 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  21. Butter Stocks to Production Ratio 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  22. Keeps Lid on NASS Butter Prices… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  23. Cheese Stocks to Production Ratio 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  24. Not a limit to NASS Cheese Prices… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  25. Milk Supply & Demand Summary (mf basis) 1998 1999 2000 2001 Milk Cows – U.S. 9,115 9,156 9,206 9,154 1,000’s Milk / cow 17,189 17,771 18,202 18,139 Total Milk-B Lbs. 162.7 167.5 157.3 165.3 Marketings- B Lbs. 156.0 161.3 166.2 164.0 Beg. Stocks- B Lbs. 4.9 5.3 6.1 6.8 Imports- B Lbs. 4.5 4.8 4.4 5.7 Total Supply- B Lbs. 165.4 171.4 176.7 176.6 End Stocks- B Lbs. 5.3 6.1 6.8 7.0 Net removals- B Lbs. 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 (3.9 (6.4 (8.6 (5.8 Net removals- B Lbs. skim) skim) skim) skim) Commercial 159.7 165.0 169.1 169.4 Disappearance Source: USDA/ERS LDP Source: USDA/ERS/AMS 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  26. Milk Supply & Demand Summary (mf basis) 2002 2003:Q1 2003:Q2 2003 Milk Cows – U.S. 9,120 9,135 9,126 9,141 1,000’s Milk / cow 18,573 4,525 4,720 18,760 Total Milk-B Lbs. 41,335 43,000 169.8 171.1 Marketings- B Lbs. 168.5 41,000 42,700 169.8 Beg. Stocks- B Lbs. 7.0 8.9 9.2 8.9 Imports- B Lbs. 4.8 1.2 1.2 4.8 Total Supply- B Lbs. 180.3 51.1 53.1 183.5 End Stocks- B Lbs. 8.9 9.2 9.6 7.0 Net removals- B Lbs. 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 (5.8 (2.5 (2.5 (6.0 Net removals- B Lbs. skim) skim) skim) skim) Commercial 171.2 41.0 42.5 173.8 Disappearance Source: USDA/ERS LDP Source: CsT / OSUE 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  27. 2003 – 2004 Price Forecast • Review Handouts on Milk Price Update • Will the current price rally in the CME cash cheese be sustained? • Butter inventories do not forecast a similar rise in cash butter prices. 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  28. Forecasts? Sure I got that… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  29. Dairy Commodity Prices ‘03 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  30. 2003 Milk Component Prices 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  31. Dairy Commodity Prices ‘04 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  32. 2004 Milk Component Prices 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  33. Class III CME Settle Prices 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  34. Dairy Market & Policy Challenges Ahead… • MILC… who’s got the MILC $$’s • Higher milk prices a welcome relief !! • $1.670 billion through August 7, 2003 • Higher market prices may take the heat off…? 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  35. MILC Numbers Selected States 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  36. Dairy Market & Policy Challenges Ahead… • Import of Milk Proteins (HR1160 / S560) 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  37. Questions ?? Cam Thraen (614) 292-2702 Thraen.1@osu.edu Aede.osu.edu/programs/ohiodairy/ 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

  38. Casein & Caseinates… 2003 - 2004 Policy & Outlook Program

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