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EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for t he U.S. and the South

EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for t he U.S. and the South. This analysis was conduced for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative. By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology July 11, 2014.

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EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for t he U.S. and the South

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  1. EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for the U.S. and the South This analysis was conduced for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative. By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology July 11, 2014

  2. Progress Since our May 6th FEPS Workshop • FEPS website created: http://cepl.gatech.edu/drupal/node/75 • Workshop notes were distributed and posted • A 55-page white paper on “The State of Electric Power in the South” was drafted, reviewed, revised, and posted • Georgia Tech’s National Energy Modeling System (GT-NEMS 2014) became fully operational in July • Examined options for modeling “disruptions”

  3. Energy Consumption in the South Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average Total Energy Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections 2012 Projection for the South The average annual growth rate of total energy consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.4% for the US, and 0.54% for the South

  4. The South Continues to Lag the Nation in its Reliance on Renewable Electricity Electricity generation by fuel in the South, 2005-2040 (trillion kilowatthours) Projections History 2012 Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear Coal Petroleum liquids and other

  5. Residential Electricity Demand Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average Residential Electricity Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (billion kWh) Projections History 2012 Projection for the South The average annual growth rate of residential electricity consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.67% for the US, 0.99% for the South

  6. BAU Tech Progress Expected to Have Little Impact on Southern Electricity Load Drivers • Of US demand for space cooling services, the South is projected to consume 63%. • Space cooling loads are expected to increase over time, requiring more peak generation.

  7. Technology Advancement has Potential to Accelerate Commercial Sector Efficiency • South continues to lag US in adoption of more stringent commercial building codes • Forthcoming cost advantages in categories such as lighting may help reduce commercial sector demand (e.g., SSL)

  8. Despite Rising Energy Consumption, Electricity Prices in the South Remain Low Average Electricity Prices in the South, 2005-2040 (2012 cents per kilowatthour) History Projections 2012 Projection for the South The average annual growth rate of retail electricity prices from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.51% for the US, 0.47% for the South

  9. Boilers and CHP Meet Proportionally More Thermal Demand in the South

  10. IndustrialCHP is More Important in the South, but Not Commercial CHP

  11. CHPSystem Prices Decline Over Time Prices are flat after 2035

  12. The South Relies More on Biomass and Less on Other Renewable Resources Than the U.S. Total generation from wind, solar and other renewables in the South (Billion kWh) Solar Wind Biomass MSW/LFG

  13. Biomass and Wind Will Replace Hydro as the Largest Renewable Electricity Sources Renewable electricity generation in 2012, 2020, 2030 and 2040 Biomass and waste Solar Wind Hydro power Solar Will Increase Significantly Post 2030

  14. Distributed Solar PV in the Commercial Sector Will Experience Declining Cost and Better Efficiency SunShot Initiative Goal: 1.25$/W in 2020

  15. Distributed Solar PV in Residential Sector Will Face Slightly Higher Costs Than in the Commercial Sector SunShot Initiative Goal: 1.5 $/W in 2020

  16. Power Sector Solar PV Cost Will Decline, Following a Three-Stage Learning Curve SunShot Initiative Goal: 1 $/W in 2020 In 2013, Utility scale PV cost was ~2 $/W Source: DOE SunShot Initiative http://www.energy.gov/articles/us-utility-scale-solar-60-percent-towards-cost-competition-goal

  17. Distributed Solar PV Generation The SERC RegionWill Significantly Increase Electricity Generation from Utility Scale Solar PV Utility Scale Solar PV Generation The South would account for 12% of the utility PV generation in 2020, 34% in 2040. The South would account for 20% of the nation’s distributed PV generation in 2020, 29% in 2040.

  18. Next Steps for FEPS • Examine EIA’s “side cases”: • Extended policies • High demand technologies • Low electricity demand • High nuclear • $25/t-CO2 tax • Begin designing our own scenarios • Second webinar in August

  19. For More Information Professor Marilyn A. Brown School of Public Policy Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30332-0345 Marilyn.Brown@pubpolicy.gatech.edu Climate and Energy Policy Lab: http://www.cepl.gatech.edu ResearchAssistants: Alexander Smith (Overview) asmith313@gatech.edu Matt Cox (CHP) Matt.Cox@gatech.edu Xiaojing Sun (Solar PV) xsun44@gatech.edu

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