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08.00.05 – « Economics and national economy management » ( economy of nature management )

The Siberian State Geodesic Academy. Dr. Valery Anufriyev. ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICAL ASSESSMENT OF RATIONAL USE OF ENERGY RESOURCES IN THE SYSTEM OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL. Dissertation for an academic degree of doctor of economical sciences.

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08.00.05 – « Economics and national economy management » ( economy of nature management )

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  1. The Siberian State Geodesic Academy Dr. Valery Anufriyev ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICAL ASSESSMENT OF RATIONAL USE OF ENERGY RESOURCES IN THE SYSTEM OF THEKYOTO PROTOCOL Dissertation for an academic degree of doctor of economical sciences 08.00.05 – «Economics and national economy management» (economy of nature management) Novosibirsk, 2006

  2. The purpose of research is development of the methodologyof environmental and economicalassessment of rational use of power resources in the system of Kyoto Protocolandpractical approbation ofsupposed approachto solving of economical, environmental andpowerproblems on the example of the Ural FederalOkrug. The object of research is fuel and energy resources of the Ural Federal Okrugin the unity withcreation and functioningof the system of energy savings which ensures theirrationalinvolvinginto the economicalcirculation. 2

  3. Relevancy of the theme of the research is determined by: • Non-alternativity of rational use of powerresources in the economics of Russia and of providing power safety; • Existing principles of environmental and economical assessment of effectiveness of fuel and energy resources oriented to a resource constituent; • Persistent necessity of development of the methodology of environmental and economical assessment of rationaluse of power resources taking into account the possibilities which are provided by the Kyoto Protocolin the conditions of globalization of economical and environmental problems; • The conception of sustainable development of the Russian Federation which anticipates the necessityof a new approach to development of fuel and energy programs taking into account rational nature management. 3

  4. The main theses : • 1. Non-alternativity of conducting the system policy of rational use of power resourcesin all sectors of economy of the Russian Federation and its regions (especially industrial ones). • 2. Complex approach to rational use of power resources taking into account uncertainty (variance) of state parametersand management of energy savings systemswhich provides the use of the method of system analyses. • 3. Procedure of formation of energy effective strategy of programs at all levelsup to 2013 yeartaking into account new possibilities which are provided by the Kyoto Protocol. • 4. Results of application of developed methodology of environmental and economical assessment of rational use of power resources in the regions of the Ural Federal Okrug on the basis of the system analyses and imitation models. • 5. Recommendations on use of suggested methodology of environmental and economical assessment of the level of energy efficiencyof the regional fuel and energy policy of Sverdlovsk and Tyumen regions and of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug which allow to reveal branches of the regional economy which have the maximum potential of GHG emissions reduction. • 6. Results of increasing the level of economical, environmental and power safety of Russian regions (on the example of the Ural Federal Okrug) which are ideally realized on the assumption of well-timed and in corpore execution of the statutes of the Kyoto Protocol which was ratified by Russia. • 7. Necessity of increasing the role of the state regulation (control) of implementation of the regional policy of use of power resources as the main condition at which the proposed methodologycan be laid in the basis of development of scientifically valid long-term energy savings programs of the regions and be used as an organizational and economical mechanism of nature management. 4

  5. Electrical energy WORLD PRODUCTION OF FUEL AND ENERGY RESOURCES Газ Oil Coal Electric power stations Nuclear plants 70-90 years Because of development of predicted deposits 20-30 years could be added 50-70 years Because of development of predicted deposits 20-30 years could be added 440-480 years Depending on the type of the consumed fuel Reserves of uranic ore and enriched uranium 120-170 years TIME PERIOD OF RESOURCE AND RAW MATERIALS PROVISION Gas 5

  6. Dynamics of use of power resources *According to the calculations of the candidate of economical sciences, Dr. AlexeyChazov 6

  7. Potential of rational use of fuel and power resources of branches of economy of the Russian Federation 7

  8. Change of power intensity of GDPof developed countries and forecast for the period up to 2025 year 1 – preferred variant; 2 – moderateforecast;3 – unfavorable forecast. 8

  9. (Y) 9

  10. The Kyoto Protocol, article 2 Each party … implementsand/ordevelopssuch policy and measures as: • Increasing the efficiency of use of energy in sectors of national economy, • Measures on limitation of GHG emissionsfor transport, • Assistance to implementation, development andwider use of new and renewable types of energy… The essence of The Framework Convention of Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol Limitation of GHG emissions is: • Increasing the efficiency of fuel and energy resources use. Ton ofthe equivalent of СО2is an universal characteristic of quantitty of used fuel and energy resources (fuel, electric power, heat energy, vapor, water, etc.) • Struggle for recovery of forests • Struggle withsoil exhaustion, loss of organic carbon 10

  11. What is the Kyoto Protocol without a climatic constituent? • 1. It is the firstratified international document which obligesthe countries, which signed this document, to increase energy efficiency of their economics. • 2. The environment protection becomes economically profitable due to flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. • 3. The Kyoto Protocol is a striking example of an innovation approach to problems of energy savings and environment. • 4. The Kyoto Protocol gives additional possibilities on creation and development of the pollutions market in the Russian Federation with pollutions which exist in the countries with developed economy. • 5. The Kyoto Protocol is increasing of the capital intensity of enterprisesdue to a new type of commodity – greenhouse gases. • 6. Via implementing the Kyoto ProtocolRussian enterprises must conduct monitoring of СО2 emissions. • 7. Realization of the Kyoto Protocol will allow to get the international support of national measures of the Russian Federation on energy savings and ecology, will attract additional investmentsto the projects on modernization of power engineering, housing and communal services, projects of budgetary sphere. 11

  12. Rational use of energy resources (мax Э) Environmental effect Economical effect (min P) Preventive environmentaldamage (max S) Carbon investments (max C) max Э = f(min P; max S; max C), min P –potential of energy savings of the object, max S –reduction of harmful emissions, or preventive environmental effect, max C –reduction of GHG emissions, orpotential of carbon investments 12

  13. Correlation of environmental and economical aspects of rational use of fuel and energy resources 13

  14. Energy savings program of Kondinsk region of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra • Potential of43183,6 tons of standard coalor energy savings759,20 millions of rubles • Reduction of СО2 emissions154 thousands of tons • Carbon investments 26 millions of rubles • Reduction of emissions957 tons of harmful substances • Preventive997 thousands of rubles environmental damage 14

  15. Fuel and energy balance in the format of The International Energy Agency 15

  16. Scenarios of development of the situation in Sverdlovsk oblast 16

  17. Organizational scheme of the pilot project 17

  18. Structure of СО2emissions in Sverdlovsk oblast 18

  19. Gross Regional Product dynamics of the South of Tyumen oblast The biggest reserves of energy savings and reduction of GHG emissions are concentrated in the branches: Power industry – 2 613 thousands of tons, Gas transport – 1 516 thousands of tons, Housing and communal services (heat supply sphere) – 656 thousands of tons, Timber and woodworking industry – 474 thousands of tons, House-building and civil engineering – 444 thousands of tons Compensation of expenses for the Program at the expense of carbon investments (price of a ton of СО2 – 10 euros; expenses for realization of energy savings reserves – 20 USA dollars / ton of standard coal) 19

  20. Branch structure of CO2 emissions from fuel firingfor 2003 year Dynamics of emissions and sink of greenhouse gases forKhanty-MansiyskAutonomous Okrug for the period 1990-2003 years, thousands of tons of СО2 equivalent 20

  21. What is the essence of the regional component of the Kyoto Protocol? • GHG inventory • Determination of the base level of emissions • Determination of current emissions • Forecast of GHG emissions • Taking into account the existing trends • Taking into accountthe forecast of economicaldevelopment • Estimation of current and perspective reserves • Determination of purposes, development of policy • Regional programs, projects • Broad implementation ofaccounting systems and systems of regulation of fuel and energy resources consumption in housing and communal services sphere • Informational and educational work 21

  22. Environmental and economical estimation of new technologies on associated gas utilization 22

  23. Strategic plan of Yekaterinburg city Complex program «Energy effiicient city for the period 2004 - 2007 years» Environmental effect Economical effect3,3milliards of rubles Carbon investments1.631 milliards of rubles Preventive environmental damage 3,1 millions of rubles Expected effect from implementation of the programin corpore 4,934 milliards of rubles Environmental and economical assessment of the complex program «Energy efficientcity for the period 2004-2007 years» 23

  24. Energy savings program according with The Concept of Sustainable Development (Scheme of the intracorporateallowances trade) 24

  25. Regional structure of СО2 emissions in the Russian Federation in 1997 year 25

  26. Potential of GHG emissions reduction in the Ural Federal Okrug 26

  27. Complexity of the environmental and economical assessment of the regional fuel and energy policy is defined by the following indices: • 1. In the basis of the environmental and economical assessment the system approach to rational use of energy resources lies within the bounds of development of the new model of fuel and energy programs of any levelusing previous experience of preparation and realization of energy saving programs. • 2. As the result of energy and ecological audit the energy constituent of events on energy resources economy (in tons of standard fuel and millions of rubles) and harmful emissions in tons are defined. • 3. On the basis of fuel and energy balance acquired as the result of environmental and economical assessment the GHG inventory is conducted and selection of the most carbon-capacious events is made (in tons of СО2-equivalent). • 4. Based upon types and volumes of saved fuel and energy resources, the volume of harmful emissions reduction is calculatedand according to the existing procedures the preventive environmental damageis evaluated, also in money terms. • 5. Complexity of environmental and economical assessment allows to identify the most effective investment projects both with the ecological (“carbon”) constituent and with the environmental and economical constituent (of rational use of fuel and energy resources), to attract “carbon” investments. 27

  28. Reduction of use of heat and energy resources, tons of standard coal Reduction of harmful emissions, t Conception of sustainable development of Russia Preventive environmental damage, millions of rubles Power effect, millions of rubles Rational use of energy resources (energy resource) Rational nature management Economical growth Development of energy saving programs according to the proposed technology Reduction of GHG emissions, t – criteria (indicator) of environmental and economical assessment of energy saving programs Ensuring of power and environmental safety (fulfillment of national socially important projects etc.) Complex environmental and economical effect Carbon investments, millions of rubles Formation and development of pollutions market in the Russian Federation Scheme of development of methodology of environmental and economical assessment of rational use of fuel and energy resources in the system of Kyoto Protocol

  29. THE MAIN RESULTS: 1. The methodology of environmental and economical assessment of rational use of energy resources is developed and approved. Into the base of methodology the main principle is laid according to which energy savings, ecology and economics of regions areconsidered in complex as interdependent multivariable functions. 2.For the first time from the positions of system analysis the complex of environmental and economical aspects of estimation of rational use of energy resources is considered, it includes: • formation of the space of manufacturing, environmental, economical, constructional, technological and organizational parameters, • substantiation of particular and complex criteria of optimization of energy savings systems. The model of multi-criterion and single-criterion optimization of the system of environmental and economical management of energy savings, of taking into account the environmental (nature conservation) component at estimation the economical effectiveness of energy saving projects is developed and introduced. 3. It is recommended to accept the volume ofCO2emissions as a determinative criterion of the environmental and economical assessment of rational use of energy resources suggested by the author andone of the evaluative indicators of energy and ecological safety. 4. The inventory of greenhouse gases was made and imitation model of GHG emissions of the subjects of the Ural Federal Okrug up to 2012 year was created, on the base of which economical, energy, environmental and investment forecasts are made. 5. Suggested and introduced methodological approaches of the complex environmental and economical assessment allow to develop a new model of the energy saving program on the levels of a region, a megapolis, an industrial enterprise, assist formation and development of the pollutions market in the Russian Federation. 29

  30. Practicalsignificance of the work: 1. The following concepts were developed: • energy saving programsfor Sverdlovsk oblast, Yekaterinburg city, programs of associated gas utilization of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, program “Modernization and reconstruction of the heat supply system of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug up to 2005 year”; a program for Kondinsk region of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug; GHG inventory for these programs was made; • the mechanism of implementation of the intracorporate energy saving program andimprovement of the environmental situation due to the allowances trade; • the new approach of the complex forecast of effectiveness of the Regional Fuel and Energy Program which includes economical, environmental and energy constituents; • organizational and financial scheme of the pilot investment JI project within the bounds of the Kyoto Protocol between regions of Russia (Sverdlovsk oblast) and Italy (Liguria). 2. The volume of CO2 emissions reduction is suggested as an evaluative indicator of energy and ecological safetywhich allows to increase effectiveness of use of energy resources and trustworthiness of control of harmful emissions. 3. The results of conducted research are introduced into the training process at the Energy Saving Chair of the Ural State Technical University for the discipline «Fundamentals of energy savings», andthe course of lections «Energy saving, ecology, Kyoto Protocol» is given, teaching and methodical aids were prepared. 30

  31. Realization of research results: 1. Theoretical, methodological and practical results of research were used at development of energy saving programs for: • Sverdlovsk oblast, • Yekaterinburg city, • Kondinsk region of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, • Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, • Tyumen oblast. 2. The results were used by the Ministry of Economical Development and Trade of the Russian Federation at preparationof the Program of social and economical development of the Russian Federation for middle-urgent prospective (2008-2010 years) in the part which applies to the mechanisms of nature management and formation of purposesof the state environmental policy (sector 6 «Increase of effectiveness of the State management and regulation»). 3. The Moscow Representative Office of the World Bank plans to use the results of the workat selecting, ranging and choosing the projects of carbon financing which are realised by the World Bank in the Russian Federation. 31

  32. Approbation of work results: • Research studies, which were conducted at carrying out the dissertation work,were supported by the Grant of the Russian Fund of Fundamental Research “Economical mechanisms of realization of regional environmental policy”, 2004-2006 years, №040680025, and were partially conducted within the bounds of the following international projects: • 1. By the Commission of the European Union, project Sinergy of the Tacis program; • 2. By the company «Batelle Pacific North-West Division» within the bound of implementation of the international project «Greenhouse gases – Support of the Interregional project on development of possibilities of taking into account and control of greenhouse gases in Russia» (2001-2002 years); • 3. By ICF Consulting company • 4. By WWF of Russia • The main results of implemented work were discussed and approved at scientifical and practical All-Russian and international conferences, meetings and workshops. • Publications.On the theme of the dissertation work more than 50 scientific works including 1 authoring and 8 collective monographs were published, publications in journals «Use and protection of natural resources in Russia», «Proceedings of industrial ecology», «EKO», «Bulletin of the Ural State Polytechnical Institute», «Petroleum engineering», «Oil, gas and business», «Energy savings and water treatment». 32

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