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Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting March 6, 2013

Economic Update. Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting March 6, 2013. Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor. WDTF – MODEL. Primary Economic Variables (Quantitative) Wages x 4 Economic Impact x 2 UI Tax Position x 1 Unemployment Rate x 1

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Idaho Workforce Development Council Meeting March 6, 2013

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  1. Economic Update Idaho Workforce Development Council MeetingMarch 6, 2013 Bob Uhlenkott Chief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

  2. WDTF – MODEL • Primary Economic Variables (Quantitative) • Wages x 4 • Economic Impact x 2 • UI Tax Position x 1 • Unemployment Rate x 1 • Training Level / Partnership x 2 • Secondary Variables (Qualitative) • Capital Investment • Training Match • Employment Growth Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  3. 2014-2015 Workforce Information Grant • Short and Long-term Industry and Occupational Projections • Workforce Information Database • Labor Market Information Web Delivery • Economic and Local Labor Market Research • Grant Guidance and Letter of Support expected in the April 2014.

  4. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Budget Cuts #1 Curtail the International Price Program (IPP). IPP Export Price Indexes measure the price change of goods and services sold to foreign buyers. The BLS will discontinue production and publication of its Export Price Indexes. These indexes currently are used in the production of National Income and Product Accounts and in the calculation of real Gross Domestic Product. In addition, these indexes are used to help understand trends in U.S. real trade balances and competitiveness and issues such as the impact of exchange rate movements.

  5. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Budget Cuts #2 Cut the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program by about $3.27 million.  The reduction is permanent. We estimate for Idaho the reduction to be around ($25,000), leading to further degradation in our workforce data. • First, establishments with an average annual employment <3 will be eliminated from the ARS. • Second, establishments in selected industries that historically have changed at a relatively lower rate are being shifted to a 6-year cycle, rather than the current 3-year cycle. 

  6. Idaho’s Workforce Figures - from BLS -from IDOL DateBLS Released Figures • February 28                        State benchmark data for years 2009-2013 (no sub-state data) • March 17                             State data for January • March 21                             Sub-state data for January • March 28                             State data for February • April 9                                  Sub-state data for February • April 18                                Sub-state benchmark data for years 2009-2013. • March 21 IDOL releases all of the above

  7. Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force-- Benchmarking -- After Before Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  8. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate-- Benchmarked -- Before After Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  9. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate-- Benchmarked -- Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  10. Benchmarked Employment Figures • September 2013 Total Employment figure missed by only 162 jobs or .02 percent. • By sector – Idaho’s Construction and Manufacturing industry performed better than previous estimates which mostly occurred in early 2013. At the end of the year construction was up by 4.50 percent and manufacturing by 2.44 percent more than the sample estimated.

  11. New Hire Report – January 2014“Month of Hire” Max Min Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  12. Job Listing Activity - Idaho Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  13. Job Listings Data – February 2014

  14. Solvency Map - at the Height of the Recession Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  15. Solvency Map - Today Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  16. National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycles Analyses Idaho Department of Labor – Communications and Research. - 2014

  17. Thank You! Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov 208.332.3570 ext. 3217

  18. Job Listing Activity – North Idaho

  19. Job Listing Activity – North Central Idaho

  20. Job Listing Activity – Southwestern Idaho

  21. Job Listing Activity – South Central Idaho

  22. Job Listing Activity - Southeastern

  23. Job Listing Activity – Eastern Idaho

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