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ACERA Projects and progress Outlook 2011 Mark Burgman

ACERA Projects and progress Outlook 2011 Mark Burgman. Who we are. UC R IVERSIDE. Past topics. Spatial analysis Expert judgement Disease freedom When to declare eradication Where should we search? Stakeholder mapping Consequences Effective inspection. Maxent.

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ACERA Projects and progress Outlook 2011 Mark Burgman

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  1. ACERA Projects and progress Outlook 2011 Mark Burgman

  2. Who we are UCRIVERSIDE

  3. Past topics • Spatial analysis • Expert judgement • Disease freedom • When to declare eradication • Where should we search? • Stakeholder mapping • Consequences • Effective inspection Maxent (Jane Elith, Michael Kearney, John Leathwick) Bayes nets Cost-effectiveness analysis (Cindy Hauser, Mick McCarthy, Hugh Possingham, Tracy Rout, Susie Hester, Oscar Cacho) (Tony Martin, Greg Hood)

  4. What’s next? ACERA II • ACERA 1001 Effective inspection (risk-return) • ACERA 1002 Estimating consequences • ACERA 1003 Biosecurity intelligence • ACERA 1004 Post-border surveillance and decision-making • ACERA 1005 Training • ACERA 1006 Pathway analysis

  5. Biosecurity Intelligence Mike Nunn, Mark Burgman, Aidan Lyon, Geoff Grossel Peter Black, Michael Cole, Stephen Dempsey, Ingo Ernst, Brett Evans, Mark Gibbs, Neil Grant, Mikael Hirsch, Claire Murray, Paul Pheloung, Belinda Wright • Intelligence Software • Professional Networks • Foresight

  6. Biosecurity Intelligence • Intelligence Software Google Flu Trends GPHIN ProMED HealthMap EpiSPIDER WDIN BioCaster NAPIS Geographic bias, taxonomic bias, original language, first reports, delays, unique reports, sources (including use of social media), user input BioCaster Work Flow Yahoo Pipes, Python, Marine pests and diseases (Grossel, Lyon)

  7. Biosecurity Intelligence 2. Professional networks • EMPLAN AI List • Plant list • Marine list • Pip Pattison, Eric Quintane

  8. Biosecurity Intelligence 3. Foresight

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