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Happy Birthday!. It’s also this person’s birthday :. Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin were both born on February 12, 1809. Statisticians often get asked “Gee, what are the chances of that?”. It’s a terrible question. We won’t answer it.
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It’s also this person’s birthday : Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin were both born on February 12, 1809.
Statisticians often get asked “Gee, what are the chances of that?” It’s a terrible question. We won’t answer it. First of all, we are unable to describe the sample space .
If we could describe the sample space, we would refuse to answer the question. We just don’t have an investigation protocol to explore this. The question was motivated by the fact that the event has already occurred. is quite large!
With clean experimental protocols, we sometimes do have to answer questions about coincidences. Example: Suppose that you are comparing a sample of 115 pancreatic cancer victims with a sample of 209 controls. You investigate 500 different possible predictive factors. Out of these 500, one will have the strongest link to the disease. We need to assess real significance!
As an aside, here’s another great historical coincidence. Galileo died in 1642. Newton was born in 1642.
