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January 2009

January 2009. Prices - year over year. Source: Macro Markets, IAS, OFHEO, Census Bureau, NAR. List Prices.

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January 2009

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  1. January 2009

  2. Prices -year over year Source: Macro Markets, IAS, OFHEO, Census Bureau, NAR

  3. List Prices “Asking prices for homes across the country fell .8 percent in October, bringing the total drop in the last three-month cycle to 2.4 percent…. Declining prices are expected to continue for the immediate future as the Fall and Winter months are seasonally weak periods, now aggravated by tight credit conditions and rising unemployment. ” Source: Altos Research & Real IQ 12/8/08

  4. Sales – year over year

  5. Keeping Current Matters “At its most volatile time in US history, the US housing market demands something more from its experienced industry professionals; a closer look.” - Integrated Asset Services, LLC

  6. 1.) Interest Rates 2.) Foreclosures 3.) Pricing

  7. Interest Rates

  8. Mortgage Rates –30 year fixed Since 10/31/2008 Source: Federal Reserve

  9. Mortgage Rates –30 year fixed Fannie & Freddie Bailout $800 billion bailout pledge Source: Federal Reserve

  10. Government Intervenes “U.S. officials pledged to pump another $800 billion into ailing credit markets… The intervention, the latest in a series of unprecedented government actions, immediately pushed down rates on 30-year mortgages by as much as one-half percentage point.” Source: Wall Street Journal 11/26/08

  11. Special Feature next month! Barry Habib is the CEO of the Mortgage Market Guide service, which helps over 19,000 of America’s best originators monitor market conditions. Because of Barry’s diverse areas of expertise, he is often featured on CNBC, NBC, CNN and FOX television networks.

  12. % of Median Household Income Source: Dan Oppenheim, Credit Suisse 12/08

  13. RealTrends “Lower interest rates will likely cause more buyers to enter the market than had in previous quarters and we expect a stronger finish to the year and a stronger first quarter than would have been the case without the stimulus from lower rates.” - Steve Murray, publisher of REALTrends Source: RealTrends 12/16/08

  14. Recovery underway? “Recovery is underway. Affordable is back in the housing market. In 2009, housing will not only recover, but we'll see buyers leap into this market in droves, depleting our housing oversupply.” - Alexis McGee, president of ForeclosureS.com. Source: Market Watch 12/18/08

  15. Moody’s Economy “The U.S. housing market is very near a bottom for home sales and prices will hit their low in September.” - Mark Zandi, Moody's Economy.com economist Source: Reuters 12/09/08

  16. Time to buy a home??

  17. New York Times “Everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.” Source: NYT 12/06/08

  18. The word is spreading… Bye to 2008? Buy in 2009! Atlanta Journal Constitution 12/28/08 Time to buy suburban dream castle? Chicago Tribune 12/19/2008 Is now best time to buy on a lake? Journal Sentinel of Milwaukee 12/12/08 Got cash? It might be time to buy a home Arizona Daily Star 12/28/2008

  19. Citigroup Survey An online survey of 5,000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that just 32 percent believed it was a good time to invest in stocks, but 51 percent said it was a good time to buy a home. Source: Wall Street Journal 12/07/08

  20. Foreclosures

  21. Foreclosures

  22. Option ARMs “The option arm nightmare is just beginning. These people cannot be helped by lower interest rates as they are not paying the minimum interest payment now on the loans. This is going to lead to another tidal wave of homes coming onto the market in the next year or two. Unlike the subprime defaults, these defaults will hit the $500k and over homes that people bought with 5% or less down. The already squeezed middle class is going to get whacked again.” Source: Todd Sullivan Seeking Alpha 12/24/08

  23. Source: Wall Street Journal 12/8/08

  24. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n

  25. TransUnion’s View The number of consumers with delinquent mortgages is poised to almost double by the end of next year, hitting its highest level in at least 16 years, according to a leading credit bureau. The big culprit is adjustable-rate mortgages that were underwritten several years ago, when lending standards were loose. Now, many of the initial teaser rates on these loans are expiring and resetting to higher interest rates and higher loan payments. Source: Wall Street Journal 12/2/08

  26. Credit Suisse A recent Credit Suisse research and analytics report has predicted that 8.1 million homes — 16 percent of all mortgages — will be in foreclosure in the next four years Source: Wall Street Journal 12/2/08

  27. Modifications? “Despite increased efforts to prevent foreclosures, only 35 percent of voluntary mortgage modifications reduced monthly payments; 20 percent of modifications had no effect either way on the payment amount and nearly half of all modifications - 45 percent - resulted in an increased monthly payment, according to research reported Thursday by Valparaiso law professor Alan White.” Source: Housing Wire 12/19/08

  28. Market Watch “A separate report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision found that more than half of the mortgages modified in the first quarter were at least 30 days delinquent after six months.” Source: Market Watch 12/26/08

  29. Pricing

  30. Henry Paulson “I have said from day one that the key thing to get us through this period is getting housing prices down.” Source: Housing Wire 12/17/08

  31. http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-12-12-homeprices_N.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-12-12-homeprices_N.htm

  32. Source: www.usatoday.com 12/12/08

  33. Source: www.usatoday.com 12/12/08

  34. Source: www.usatoday.com 12/12/08

  35. Source: www.usatoday.com 12/12/08

  36. Economists on Home Prices “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal say that home prices won’t hit bottom until the second half of 2009 at the earliest and some say the downward trend will continue until 2011 or 2012. After that… they will rise just a little faster than inflation and stay in line with increases in household income.” Source: Wall Street Journal 12/02/08

  37. Today’s Price Projected Bottom Source: CME Group 12/29/08

  38. WSJ Headline Only One Person Knows a Home's Value: Its Buyer Source: Wall Street Journal 11/21/08

  39. “I believe that a person’s greatest hour, in fact their greatest fulfillment, is that moment when they have worked their heart out for a good cause and lie exhausted, but victorious, on the field of battle.” - Vince Lombardi

  40. 631-787-6200 steve@steveharney.com www.steveharney.com

  41. Any questions? Contact us at info@KeepingCurrentMatters.com We’ll bend over backwards to try and help!

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