GREEN -MAC -LCCP © The Metric for MAC Environmental Superiority

1. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©The Metric for MAC Environmental Superiority Drs. Stella Papasavva1 and Stephen O. Andersen2 1General Motors Research & Development Center, 2U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Presentation prepared for the 2008 MAC Summit Scottsdale, Arizona June 13, 2008

2. Outline • Background • Environmental Solutions Using Life Cycle Analysis methods • TEWI, LCCP evolution and history • The agreement forged in Japan • Path-breaking work for a transparent GREEN-MAC-LCCP© • The working group • False Claims Resolved by LCCP • GREEN-MAC-LCCP© Endorsement

3. BACKGROUND • The European Union (EU) Directive 2006/40/EC (1) prohibits refrigerants with Global Warming Potentials (GWP) greater than 150, starting from 2011 • Current automotive refrigerant HFC-134a (GWP = 1,430) will be banned • in all “new type” vehicle models sold in the EU starting January 1st, 2011 • in all new vehicles sold in the EU after January 1st, 2017 • The Directive is focused only on the Direct Climate Impact of refrigerant emissions – ignoring the more significant Indirect Climate Impact of fuel use for vehicle air conditioning but the EC and other regulatory authorities will not ignore MAC fuel use for much longer • The greatest environmental benefit can be realized when a systems approach guides voluntary and regulatory action • Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) provides a Holistic Approach in evaluating the climate impacts of alternative competing technologies • Green MAC LCCP© results provide a superior basis for engineers and policy makers to make wise decisions of alternative competing technologies

4. CO 2 HFC HFC HFC CO 2 CO CO CO 2 2 2 Transportation Mine Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Refrigerants Refrigerant MANUFACTURING Refrigerant USE CO2 Atmospheric degradation products COF HCOF 2 TFA To be Included in the analysis Direct Emissions HF + HFC Transportation Indirect Emissions CO2 End-use of chemicals CO2 Recycling Breakdown Raw Materials Refrigerant End-of-Life

5. Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP)Evolution and History • Partial LCA analysis for alternative refrigerants were conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory • These are referenced as Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) studies • Dr. Papasavva introduced and advanced LCA in assessing alternative refrigerants in her 1997 Ph.D. thesis • The dissertation expanded the TEWI concept into the Life Cycle Warming Impact (LCWI) term • Comprehensive LCA was promoted by Dr. Andersen in the 1999 report of the Montreal Protocol Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) • TEAP coined Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) • Complete LCA analysis, for alternative refrigerants were also conducted by others

6. TEWI vs. LCCP • TEWI (Total Equivalent Warming Impact): TEWI = GWP (direct) + GWP (indirect) Due to refrigerant leaks Due to A/C operation • LCCP (Life Cycle Climate Performance) : LCCP = TEWI +GWP (Indirect) [energy consumption expressed as CO2-eq emissions from chemical production & transport, manufacturing components & vehicle assembly and end-of-life] +GWP (direct) [chemical refrigerant emissions including atmospheric reaction products, manufacturing leakage, and end-of-life]

7. U.S. EPA Global-LCCP Proposal • Dr. Stephen Andersen proposed a global peer-reviewed LCCP tool for alternative MAC refrigerants that would shift the debate from unsubstantiated environmental claims to objective calculations • Mr. Ward Atkinson and Dr. Stephen O. Andersen persuaded General Motors to support the project, in 2004 • Dr. Stella Papasavva and Dr. Stephen O. Andersen persuaded JAMA member companies to contribute their expertise and intellectual property, in 2005

8. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Path-braking Work 50 world experts have developed and agreed an LCCP Model: Experts from Industry, Governmental and Non-Governmental Organizations, National Laboratories, and Academia Transparent assumptions, calculations, and results The Model output compares LCCP emissions of 7 alternatives: Annual and Lifetime LCCP GHG per vehicle for 61 world cities Lifetime LCCP GHG for global fleets in various world regions Globally peer reviewed and accepted worldwide Hosted on the US EPA’s website:http://www.epa.gov/cppd/mac/ An SAE standard has been developed and is nearly ready for ballot

9. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Model Framework

10. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Model Input Assumptions Model • Refrigerant System Assumptions: • Leakages • System Mass • Temperature at Evaporator Outlet • COP, Qe (from Bench or Vehicle tests) • Condenser/Gas Cooler Air Inlet air at idle conditions • Front End Air Flow • Engine Cooling Fan • Vehicle Assumptions • Car Size • Compact [current] • Midsize [current] • SUV [current] • Engine type • L4 [current] • V6 [current] • V8 [current] • Environmental Assumptions: • CO2-eq from refrigerant production • Transportation, End-of-Life and By-Product Emissions • Ambient Temperature Operation • Humidity effects • Vehicle Usage & Climate Assumptions: • Distance based on region • % Drive Time in Ambient during 6AM - 24PM Different for Each City • Cabin Comfort -% Time with A/C ON • Driving cycle based on region

11. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Model Evolution Global-fleet Country Model (GREEN-MAC-LCCP-V3) • Calculations for 61 global cities • GHG emissions estimated per year based on vehicle population data for each country and for 10yrs (2008-2017) • Considers North and South America, East & West Europe, Asia and Africa • 8-vehicle/engine RPM profiles • Refrigerant and refrigerant atmospheric decomposition products considered • Manual and Automatic usage is set by each city • Regular Leakage rates are estimated as a function of the average ambient in each city • Refrigerant Service Leakage is estimated using different values for Professional and Do-It-Yourselfers • End-of-Life Leakage is different for each city and it better comprehends the venting of refrigerant at EOL • A/C on time and mileage driven is unique for each city One-Vehicle 15-City World Model (GREEN-MAC-LCCP-V2) • Calculations for 15 global cities • GHG emissions estimated per year per vehicle • Considers USA, Western Europe and Asia • 3-vehicle/engine RPM profiles • Refrigerant global warming impact is considered • Manual and Automatic usage are the same for each city • Regular Leakage was set to be identical for Warm and Cold climates • Only one value of Refrigerant Service Leakage was considered • End-of-Life Leakage is the same for each city • A/C on time and mileage is fixed by region

12. GREEN-MAC-LCCP© -V215-City Model 15 cities in current model

13. GREEN-MAC-LCCP© -V3World Model 25 18 37 19 23 42 20 19 18 24 17 21 23 17 F 15 Vancouver 33% Toronto 33% Montreal 33% 26 26 23 26 25 26 41 10 28 32 25 29 27 DC 14 21 31 19 DC 33 30 Assigned Climate 38 40 Code for A/C 40 Beijing 50% Shanghai 50% 58 32 & Dehumidification 43 50 41 Fargo, ND 43 52 69 Chicago, Il New Delhi 33% Bombay 33% Bangalore 33% 49 50 Boston, MA Washington DC 57 Los Angeles 6 Houston, TX Miami, FL Phoenix, AZ

14. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Data Input Examples Leakage Rates Canada S. America N. America

15. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Data Input Examples Climate & Driving

16. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Data Output Examples

17. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Data Plot Examples R-134a Baseline AR1 AR2 AR3 AR4 AR5 R-134a Baseline & LCCP CO2-eq Emissions of Alternative MAC Technologies

18. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Data Plot Examples

19. GREEN-MAC-LCCP©Data Plot Examples

20. False Claims Resolved • GREEN-MAC-LCCP© Model has been peer reviewed and accepted as a global standard by more than 25 companies/organizations • No other model has been offered freely • GREEN-MAC-LCCP© Model continues to improve with inputs from industry and government • Model accurately compares refrigerants under the same boundary conditions • GREEN-MAC-LCCP© Model will continue to be the trusted method to guide refrigerant choice worldwide and to reward systems and companies achieving the highest environmental performance

21. CONCLUSION – Near Perfection • GREEN-MAC-LCCP© - V3 has been finalized in April, ‘08 and shared with OEMs and other organizations worldwide for next-generation refrigerant choice – on-going consensus efforts will further improve its success • The model can consider a variety of scenarios globally and locally to assess the performance of alternate refrigerants • Six alternative refrigerants can be analyzed and compared • Test results confirm that the GREEN-MAC-LCCP© model is: • Transparent, Robust, and Flexible • Accurate in LCCP CO2-eq emission estimates • Based on globally accepted weather data, AC run time, vehicle inventories, and refrigerant leakage rates • A comprehensive tool for engineers and policy makers to use in selecting the next-generation refrigerant and in pursuing energy efficiency

22. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • USEPA & CARB: Kristen Taddonio for EPA website design and hosting, Karen Thundiyil for help in gathering the Indian vehicle data. Alberto Ayala for regulatory integration • JAMA: Kenta Aoki, Tzuhsiang Shishou, Tohru Ikegami for comments, • suggestions and excellent feedback during the data harmonization process • NREL: John Rugh, Larry Chaney for vehicle A/C comfort data and • for addressing and resolving complex our weather data questions • SAE CRP-150 Team: • William Hill, Ward Atkinson,Jurgen Wertenbach, Stephen Lepper, Lothar Seybold,Roberto Monforte, Volker Fliehmann for comments & suggestions to each version of the model • MACS: Elvis Hoffpauir for End-Of-Life (EOL) vehicle refrigerant data • UNEP & Ecole de Mines: Rajendra Shende, Dennis Clodic for leak rates • Chemical Companies: • Bob Low (Ineos); Mary Koban (DuPont); Ian Shankland, Mark Spatz, and Richard Winick (Honeywell) for energy and chemical emissions data for refrigerant manufacturing THANK YOU!

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