Tourism in the Changing Climate of eastern Newfoundland

1. Tourism in the Changing Climate of eastern Newfoundland Norm Catto Geography, Memorial University ncatto@mun.ca

2. Climate: Recent variability & change • Longer, hotter and drier summers • Increased thunderstorm & lightning activity • Increased storm activity • More winter and spring precipitation, especially rain • Stronger winds • Variable, generally reduced snow cover • More ‘anomalous’ events

3. In future, What can eastern Newfoundland expect? More of the Same! No types of weather events eastern Newfoundland hasn’t experienced previously, only changes in frequency and intensity

4. Some related work …. • “Climate Change Impacts in NL Parks” • Trail Design, Bonavista Peninsula • Landscape & Environmental Analysis, Terra Nova National Park – Eastport Peninsula • Landscape & Environmental Analysis, Carmanville & Botwood areas • Impact of frost action, St. Brendan’s quarries • Impact of sea level changes, The Beaches • please contact ncatto@mun.ca, 737-8413

5. Tourism: Recent trends & change • Increased and changed use by NL residents • Increased visits - promotion outside NL • Increasing economic significance of tourism • More summer residents & summer home purchases • Continued attraction of ‘come-home’ years – not as subject to climate change impacts

6. Changes in Tourist Population • Cruise ship visitation • Older tourists – approx. 2/3 of summer 2006 visitors to Cape St. Mary’s were over 60 • Number of school-age tourists decreasing • Shifts to air travel (& local car rental) • Implications for trail design, types of activities • Increasing shoulder seasons (spring and fall) • Impact on winter tourism?

7. Impact on summer tourism - coast • Increased use of beaches for recreation • Increased vehicular access to beaches • Increased storm-induced erosion • Increased storm activity means disruption of Gulf ferry traffic possible – cost of weather disruptions exceeded $6 million in 2004

8. Impact on Summer tourism & Recreation - interior • Summer use of wooded areas can result in an increase in forest fires (local & distant) • Increased use of ponds during summer • Water supply and quality concerns – drier summers • Dry summers may adversely affect berries

9. Icebergs • From the mid-1990s to 2003, iceberg numbers increased • 2004-2006, iceberg numbers decreased • Number of icebergs is directly related to glacial activity in Greenland • Water temperatures in the Labrador Sea will remain suitable for iceberg drift • Fluctuations in iceberg numbers are not related to climate change along the Newfoundland coast

10. Impacts during winter & spring - coast • More freeze-thaw events leading to increased erosion of coastal cliff sites and walking trails • Increased storm activity – narrowing and coarsening of beaches • Increased degradation of coastal dunes

11. Snow tourism • changes in cross-country skiing patterns • Decreases in snow would limit snowmobiling • Reduction by ~ 50% in days suitable for snowmobiling from 1970 to 2025 • By 2050, predicted average snowmobiling season in Gander could total less than 1 week (McBoyle et al., University of Western Ontario) • Snowmobile sales declined by 38.4% between 1997 and 2005 throughout North America • ATV sales increased by a comparable percentage

12. Implications - positives • Change advertising in response to changed conditions and tourist population • Some aspects of tourism, including longer summer seasons, are favoured by ongoing climate change • As warming increases more rapidly in central North America and Western Europe, our relatively cool summers are increasingly seen as attractive environments for vacationing or a summer residence

13. Further information …. • please contact ncatto@mun.ca • 737-8413 • http://www.mun.ca/geog/research/coastal_geomorpho.php