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Investor Confidence Survey – JP Morgan Asset Management Quarter 3 2009

Investor Confidence Survey – JP Morgan Asset Management Quarter 3 2009. 2. 3. Methodology. Results. 1. Objectives. Agenda. 1. Objectives. Background.

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Investor Confidence Survey – JP Morgan Asset Management Quarter 3 2009

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  1. Investor Confidence Survey – JP Morgan Asset ManagementQuarter 3 2009

  2. 2 3 Methodology Results 1 Objectives Agenda

  3. 1 Objectives

  4. Background JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM), the investment arm of JPMorgan Chase, is one of the largest active asset managers in the world and provides a complete range of investment solutions for every type of investor. In 2004 JPMorgan Asset Management started to measure people’s expectations about the stock market’s development. The research was carried out by IMRI until December 2007. This is the seventh measurement done by GfK Sverige. The research is done every quarter, four times/year.

  5. Objectives • To find out what expectations people and investors have about the stock market’s development in Sweden. • What type of financial products if any people hold at present and what if any investments have been made in the past 6 months. Whether it has any influence on the future investments. • The objective is also to find out how expectations about the stock market’s development and investment patterns differ between different groups (based on gender, age, region, income, etc). • The results of every wave will be presented in a daily newspaper and will be used as a support for JPMorgan Asset Management in their recommendations for their partners’ work with different investor segments.

  6. 2 Methodology

  7. Methodology The research is conducted with the help of telephone interviews (CATI omnibus). 1004 interviews were done with the respondents aged 16-74 all over Sweden and the sample represents a miniature of Sweden. Some slides in this report are based on all 1004 interviews while others are based on those who own direct stocks/shares and/or funds. Fieldwork was conducted from September, 1st – September, 10th.

  8. 3 Results

  9. Demographics

  10. Demographics

  11. Investor Confidence Index The negative trend starting in December, 2007 was broken in March, 2008. However, in June, 2008 the investors were much more pessimistic about the stock market development. In September, 2008 the investors are getting more positive again. In December, 2008 the investors continue to be positive. In March, 2009 the investors are more negative compared to December, 2008. In June, 2009 the investors are much more positive again. In September, 2009 the investors continue to be positive. The stock market index is set to “0” in March 2004 because of the start for Inverstor Confidence Tracking.

  12. Investor Confidence Trend

  13. Expectations about the stock market’s development/Stock market index

  14. Expectations about the stock market’s development/Stock market index

  15. Investor Confidence Trend * *NB: Don’t know is included: Sept. 2009 (8%)

  16. Investor Confidence – split by gender; nine waves - Significantly higher Both women and men continue to be positive in September, 2009.

  17. Investor Confidence – split by age; September 2009 vs. June 2009 16-29 year olds are more negative, all other age groups are more positive in September, 2009 compared to June, 2009.

  18. Investor Confidence - gross h.h income;September 2009 vs. June 2009 NB: Don’t know is included in “Neutral” LOW= 0-285 000 SEK MIDDLE= 285 001-550 000 SEK TOP= SEK 550 001+

  19. Investor Confidence Trend - split by city size;September 2009 vs. June 2009 NB: Don’t know is included in “Neutral”

  20. Investor Confidence Trend - split by city size;September 2009 vs. June 2009 NB: Don’t know is included in “Neutral”

  21. Investor Confidence Trend - split by regions; September 2009 vs. June 2009 NB: Don’t know is included in “Neutral” More positive in September, 2009 compared to June, 2009 in West, South and Middle regions.

  22. Investor Confidence - North

  23. Investor Confidence - Middle

  24. Investor Confidence - South

  25. Expectations about the stock market’s development: March 2008Profile of those who said that the stock market would go down (likely/very likely according to March 2008 questionnaire wording) • 30-39 year olds. • Those with university/college degree, those who live in Sthlm. • No significant differences between the percentage of men and women who said that the stock market would go down. However, much fewer women said that it would go up. • Those who own direct stocks/shares and those who are unlikely/very unlikely to invest in direct stocks/shares in the next 6 months.

  26. Expectations about the stock market’s development: June 2008Profile of those who said that the stock market would not go up (quite unlikely/very unlikely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • 40-49 year olds. • Those with university/college degree. • No significant differences between the percentage of men and women who said that the stock market would go down. • Those who are unlikely/very unlikely to invest in direct stocks/shares in the next 6 months.

  27. Expectations about the stock market’s development: September 2008Profile of those who said that the stock market would not go up (quite unlikely/very unlikely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • No significant differences between the percentage of men and women who said that the stock market would go down. However, much fewer women said that it would go up. • Single household. • Those who are unlikely/very unlikely to invest in direct stocks/shares in the next 6 months.

  28. Expectations about the stock market’s development: December 2008Profile of those who said that the stock market would not go up (quite unlikely/very unlikely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • No significant differences between the percentage of men and women who said that the stock market would go down. However, much fewer women said that it would go up. • Those who are unlikely/very unlikely to invest in direct stocks/shares or funds in the next 6 months.

  29. Expectations about the stock market’s development: December 2008Profile of those who said that the stock market would go up (quite likely/very likely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • Men • Those who are likely/very likely to invest in direct stocks/shares or funds in the next 6 months. • Those who own direct stocks/shares or both direct stocks/shares and funds and have invested in them in the past 6 months.

  30. Expectations about the stock market’s development: March 2009Profile of those who said that the stock market would go up (quite likely/very likely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • Men. • Those with high income. • Those who are likely/very likely to invest in direct stocks/shares or funds in the next 6 months. • Those who own direct stocks/shares and funds. • Those who have invested in direct stocks/shares or both direct stocks/shares and funds in the past 6 months.

  31. Expectations about the stock market’s development: June 2009Profile of those who said that the stock market would go up (quite likely/very likely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • Men. • Those with high income. • Those who are likely/very likely to invest in direct stocks/shares or funds in the next 6 months. • Those who own both direct stocks/shares and funds. • Those who have invested in funds or both direct stocks/shares and funds in the past 6 months.

  32. Expectations about the stock market’s development: September 2009Profile of those who said that the stock market would go up (quite likely/very likely according to June 2008 questionnaire wording) • Men. • Household with 2 persons. • Those with university/college degree. • Those with middle income (285 001 – 440 000 SEK). • Those who are likely/very likely to invest in direct stocks/shares or funds in the next 6 months. • Those who own both direct stocks/shares and funds. • Those who have invested in funds in the past 6 months.

  33. Reasons: the stock market will go up

  34. Reasons: the stock market will go upSeptember 2009 – June 2009

  35. Summarized reasons : the stock market will go up

  36. Summarized reasons : the stock market will go upMarch 2008 – September 2009

  37. Reasons: the stock market will not go up

  38. Reasons: the stock market will not go upSeptember 2009 – June 2009

  39. Summarized reasons: the stock market will not go up

  40. Summarized reasons: the stock market will not go upMarch 2008 – September 2009

  41. Future investments: direct stocks/shares and funds

  42. Future investments: direct stocks/shares and funds

  43. Future investments: types of funds

  44. Future investments: types of funds

  45. Future investments: types of funds • Overall: those who currently invest in direct stocks and funds and invested in them in the past 6 months are more likely to invest in the next 6 months as well. Also, those who are aware of the foreign investment companies and would let them place their investments are more likely to invest in future. • 43% of 30-39 year olds and 38% of those with high income are likely to invest in Emerging markets. • Eastern Europe is preferred by those who live in the Middle region (46%) and those who are aware of JPMAM (42%). • 36% of 30-39 year olds and 32 %those who are ware of JPMAM would invest in some type of a specialized fond. NB: only significant differences are mentioned. Base: Total, 1004.

  46. Current investments

  47. Current investments: types of fundsSomewhat fewer invest in Emerging markets Sept 2008 Dec2008 March 2009 June,2009 56% 57% 53% 51% 49% 50% 49% 51% 33% 35% 37% 36% 33% 32% 34% 36% 25% 28% 28% 29% 21% 22% 21% 22% 15% 15% 15% 18% 7% 7% 9% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% * 14% 17% 19% 19% 13% 14% 12% 11% *Mostly mixed funds, interest rate funds and pensions funds.

  48. Investments in the past six months

  49. Investments in the past six months

  50. Investments in the past six months: types of fundsAsia/Japan/Far East funds are getting more popular Sept 2008 March 2009 Dec2008 June 2009 37% 45% 43% 42% 42% 48% 47% 42% 35% 30% 35% 35% 30% 29% 28% 27% 28% 29% 25% 23% 15% 19% 20% 18% 12% 12% 14% 15% 5% 9% 8% 10% 9% 11% 11% 13% * 18% 22% 20% 19% 11% 16% 14% 12% *Mostly interest rate funds, mixed funds, pensions funds and Swedish funds.

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