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Carlos Dobkin and Christopher Carpenter

The Effects of Alcohol Access on Consumption and Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age. Carlos Dobkin and Christopher Carpenter. Background/Motivation. Alcohol consumption costs society hundreds of billions annually (IOM 2004)

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Carlos Dobkin and Christopher Carpenter

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  1. The Effects of Alcohol Access on Consumption and Mortality:Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age Carlos Dobkin and Christopher Carpenter

  2. Background/Motivation • Alcohol consumption costs society hundreds of billions annually (IOM 2004) • The government spends billions trying to reduce alcohol consumption and its adverse effects

  3. The Design • Focus on change in access to alcohol at age 21 due to MLDA laws • Clear source of identifying variation in alcohol consumption • Regression Discontinuity Design • Parametric: Model the age profile with a polynomial • Nonparametric: Local Linear Regression

  4. Data: Alcohol Consumption • 1997-2005 National Health Interview Survey (Sample Adult Supplement) • 16,107 Adults 19-22 Years of Age • 1997-2004 Vital Statistics Mortality • Census of Deaths in the United States • Considerable Detail on Cause of Death

  5. Summary of Alcohol Findings • There is an immediate persistent increase in alcohol consumption at age 21 • Only modest evidence of an increase in first time use of alcohol • More people are drinking but drinking intensity does not appear to have gone up much

  6. Summary of Mortality Findings • Big persistent increase in mortality • Increase due largely to MVA but also evidence of an increase in suicides • Biggest increase among white males in college

  7. Conclusions • Minimum Legal Drinking Age (MLDA) laws substantially reduce drinking and mortality • The age profiles of consumption and mortality suggest it is not people’s first experience with drinking that is the problem • The lack of a substantial change in drinking intensity suggest that it is drinking itself that is the problem • The implied elasticities suggest a substantial amount of the mortality among young adults is due to alcohol consumption • Days drinking and days heavy drinking go up by 21 and 20 percent respectively • Mortality goes up by percent 9 percent • If one of these is the causal pathway then the implied elasticity is about .4

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