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By Eva Laznicka

The Effects of Climate Change on EXTREME WEATHER. By Eva Laznicka. What is Climate Change and Global Warming?. Climate Change is the change in the average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns, and precipitation, that an area experiences over time.

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By Eva Laznicka

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  1. The Effects of Climate Change on EXTREME WEATHER By Eva Laznicka

  2. What is Climate Change and Global Warming? • Climate Change is the change in the average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns, and precipitation, that an area experiences over time. • Global Warming is the gradual warming up of the Earth.

  3. Examples of Global Warming • In the past century, the average global surface temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees Celsius. Scientists predict surface temperatures will increase on average from 2- 4.5 degrees Celsius (2.7-8.1 degrees F) over the next 100 years. Arctic regions will be well above the average. • Average surface temperature of Earth is different from outside weather on a given day. • 2005 was the warmest year on record. (1) Fig. A Fig. B

  4. What is the apparent cause of this increase in temperature? • The main cause is the increase of greenhouse gases which are amplifying the “Greenhouse Effect”. • The greenhouse gases are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). (2) • The human related sources of these gases are combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil for (oil can be used for powering transportation and coal for heating) , and dying biomass from deforestation. (3) • The natural sources include water vapor from evaporation from lakes and oceans, and it is also emitted from volcanoes. (4) • Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere by trapping heat of the sun and warming the planet. • Termed “The Greenhouse Effect” because of its similarity to how greenhouses warm up by trapping the heat of the sun. Fig. C

  5. Albedo • Albedo is another factor in the Greenhouse Effect. • Albedo is the measurement of radiation reflected on a surface or body. • The lighter the object in color, the higher the albedo of the object, and the more radiation if reflects. The darker the object, the lower the albedo, and the more radiation it absorbs. • Ice is melting the in the polar regions, more areas are being farmed, forests are being cut down, and cities are growing which affects the albedo of the planet by lowering it (the planet becomes less white and reflective.) Incoming solar radiation is going to be absorbed, instead of reflected, therefore contributing to the warming and enhancing of the Greenhouse Effect. (5) Fig. D

  6. What problems are caused by Global Warming? • Global Warming is causing many problems in the present and concerns for the future. • Increased temperatures has ledd to changes in rainfall patterns, decreasing the amount of rainfall in some areas and increasing it in others. (6) • This affects agriculture, ecosystems, and human activity. A Drought (Fig. E) A Flood (Fig. F)

  7. Effect: Sea Level Rise • As temperatures are increasing, thermal expansion of water and melting of polar ice caps and glaciers are causing a rise in the sea level. (7) • This is causing problems to low lying areas in the U.S., and countries such as Holland and cities such as Venice. • Also, it causes flooding in coastal areas around the world. Many coastal cities would be in danger. Some island nations have already been evacuated. Fig. G

  8. Effect: Extremes in Weather Conditions • Global Warming is linked to extremes in weather conditions. • In the past year there has been an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floodings, droughts, cyclones and other severe storms. While more scientists are becoming convinced of a link between hurricane intensity and global warming, it is still unclear what the link, if any, there might between cyclones and global warming. (8) • Costs of damage from extreme weather events linked to global warming are very high. Hurricane Fig H.  Tornado Fig. I

  9. Fig. J  A graph of the increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones, and other severe storms.

  10. Evidence of Global Warming • Evidence: The summer north polar cap has shrunk more than 20% since 1979. • The ice over that is there year round is shrinking at a rate of 9% every 10 years; at the rate it is going, it could be gone by the year 2100 or sooner if melting accelerates as some scientists believe is happening. (9) Fig. K

  11. Scientific Predictions for the Future • In the next 50 years, it is predicted by scientists that the global temperature will continue to rise as the carbon dioxide concentration increases. • It is 90% likely that the increase will be between 2.4 and 5.4 degrees Celsius. (10) • There is such a wide range in this prediction because it is unclear exactly what will happen in the future, because humans could change their ways. This is the best guess of scientists.

  12. What is Extreme Weather? • Extreme weather is weather that is outside the normal range of intensity that a region experiences. • This would include variations in temperature, wind speed, rainfall and other precipitation. • The number of storms can also be outside the normal range. • Weather normally changes sporadically in any given area, but trends can gradually change over time. • Weather systems are complicated and it is very difficult to understand weather patterns fully but we can understand it well enough to make useful decisions for society.

  13. Severe Weather Events • There have always been severe weather events in the world. There have also been abrupt swings in the Earth’s climate, including ice ages that have affected our ancestors, although none have been dramatic since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. • In the 1990’s alone the world experienced six enormous floods in North America, Europe and China, and severe droughts in China, Vietnam and Korea, and extreme storms in Canada, England and the United States. (11) • It is not possible to directly link specific weather events with climate change, but there is evidence that climate change contributes to severe weather patterns that persist over time.

  14. Changes in Precipitation • Precipitation is another weather event showing changes. • The yearly average precipitation in an area may not be as important as the extremes experienced by the region. • Flooding and drought are more common as the number of days with greater than 10 and 20 mm precipitation increase. (see figure) • Many land areas were sampled globally and greater than 15% showed increased extreme precipitation versus 3% significantly decreased precipitation from 1951 to 2003. (12) • Intense rainfalls have increased in the US, Russia, China, Japan, and the North Atlantic rim. (13) Fig. L Fig. M

  15. Effects on Global Temperatures • The global average temperature is gradually increasing. • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts an even greater rate of temperature increase after 2000. (see figure to the right) • There will be more variation in local temperatures as summers get hotter, last longer and there are more heat waves and droughts. (14) Fig. N

  16. Other Effects • Ecosystems will be disrupted if plants die due to drought, and gradually this will decrease oxygen production and increase carbon dioxide in the atmosphere released from their death. • Some parts of the world have documented less extreme low temperatures, although there is no clear trend in increasing high temperature extremes, and overall temperature extremes seem to be less prevalent.

  17. Natural Disasters and Storms • There is some evidence that the number of natural disasters (including tropical storms, hurricanes, drought, earthquakes and floods) is increasing. • Comparing the periods from 1963-1967 to 1988-1992, there are increases in all disasters, although not all these events are weather related or can be linked to climate changes. (top figure, 15) • Some natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions can decrease global temperatures slightly in the short term by the blocking of solar radiation by volcanic ash. (16) • A general increase in the number of winter storms in the Northern Hemisphere from 1900-1990 was shown by Steve Lambert. (bottom figure) Fig. O Fig P.

  18. El Niño • Worldwide weather is linked to ocean temperature and currents, and in particular El Niño. • El Niño is the name of the episodic warming of eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean near the Equator. • These currents affect the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. • There are natural cycles for El Niño, but the overall trend since the 1970’s has been an increase in the number and intensity of this ocean warming. • When ocean temperatures exceed 27 degrees Celsius, hurricanes can form. • As larger areas of the ocean reach this temperature, it is likely that hurricane frequency and intensity will increase. (17) Fig Q.

  19. Global Warming and Extreme Weather Connections • The connection between global warming and extreme weather is that global warming changes the circulation of heat around earth and as a result it changes how energy flows through weather systems. • For example, areas of the ocean will heat differently and air masses will heat differently as well. • Also the evaporation and precipitation patterns will likely change. (18)

  20. Impact on Humans • Extreme weather has an enormous impact on people around the world. • It affects the production of food, because droughts and floods interfere with agriculture. • Severe storms can take lives and destroy coastal communities. • The economic impact of lost buildings, jobs, and homes can be devastating.

  21. Prevention of Further Warming • To prevent global warming, there are many actions individuals and communities can take. • Some ideas are that they can use renewable energy sources like wind and solar; reduce burning of fossil fuels by taking public transportation, driving hybrid cars, and recycling. • These are just a few examples of the many things that humans should be doing to reduce global warming. • Even if people reduce the greenhouse gases, global warming may continue for many years afterward since carbon dioxide can persist in the atmosphere for up to 200 years. A Hybrid Car Fig R.

  22. Human History vs. Earth’s History • Many scientists are studying extreme weather and global warming to continue to analyze how these factors may affect the future. • Human history is a very short time compared to the Earth’s history. It is yet to be determined how human activity will change the future of our home planet.

  23. Fig. S  John Daly of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s prediction for carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere for future.

  24. QUIZ! • Q: What is the difference between climate change and global warming? • A: Global Warming involves the warming up of the Earth based on its average temperature, while climate change is more broad and involves the change in the average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns, and precipitation, than an area experiences. • Q: What is the evidence of global warming shown at the north pole? • A: The summer north polar cap has shrunk over 20% since 1979 and is continuing to shrink. • Q: What are two measures that humans can take to help reverse or halt global warming? • A: Some ideas are that they can use solar energy, reduce burning of fossil fuels by taking public transportation, driving hybrid cars, and recycling. • Q: What are three examples of extreme weather events being affected by global warming? • A: Some events are floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, changes in precipitation and temperature, and more.

  25. Hadley Centre on Climate Research Government of Canada Website Synthesis Report: Summary Report for Policy Makers Ms. Chang’s Class Notes (December 15th, 2005) Hadley Centre on Climate Research Government of Canada Website Hadley Centre on Climate Natural Resources Defense Council Recent Research on Climate Change Science from the Hadley Centre, December 2004 Environment Canada Hadley Centre on Climate Research Environment Canada Environment Canada Government of Canada Website 15. Environment Canada Earth Science Textbook Environment Canada Environment Canada Footnotes

  26. Figs. A & B: Climate Change, Rivers and Rainfall. Hadley Centre on Climate Research. 8 January 2006. http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/B2005/COP11.pdf Fig. C: The Greenhouse Effect. Government of Canada. 8 January 2006. http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/earth.asp Fig. D: Dr.Yuhang Wang’s Tropospheric Chemistry Group. 10 June 2006. http://apollo.eas.gatech.edu/yhw/Cindy/tropo.htm Fig. E:PALACES For The People21st Century Lifestyles, Here, Now. 10 June 2006. http://www.ecosyn.us/ecocity/Challenges/drought Fig. F:Lewes Flood Action. 10 June 2006. http://www.lewes-flood-action.org.uk/ Fig. G: Raper, Sarah. 10: Sea Level Rise. Climate Research Unit. 10 June 2006. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/slr/ Fig. H: Hurricane Forecasting. NASA. http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/hurricane.html Fig. I: University of Wisconsin. 10 June 2006. http://www.uwm.edu/~kahl/Images/Weather/Severe/tornado.html Fig. J:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 8 January 2006. http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/small/08.17.jpg Fig. K: Global Warming Puts the Arctic on Thin Ice. Natural Resources Defense Council. 8 January 2006. http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp Fig. L: Climate Change, Rivers and Rainfall. Hadley Centre on Climate Research. 8 January 2006. http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/B2005/COP11.pdf Fig. M:P.E. LaMoreaux & Associates. INC. 10 June 2006. http://www.pela-tenn.com/environmental%20impacts/sinkhole%20flooding.jpg Fig. N: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 8 January 2006. http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/small/05.24.jpg Figs. O & P: Francis, David, and Henry Hengeveld. Extreme Weather and Climate Change. Environment Canada. 8 January 2006. http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding/ccd/ccd_9801/ccd_9801_e.pdf Fig. Q:CNN (Cable News Network). 10 June 2006. http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/9708/20/el.nino/effects.lg.jpg Fig. R: How Stuff Works. 10 June 2006. http://auto.howstuffworks.com/hybrid-car3.htm Picture Credits

  27. Bibliography • Climate Change, Rivers and Rainfall. Hadley Centre on Climate Research. 8 January 2006. http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/B2005/COP11.pdf • What is Climate Change? Government of Canada. 8 January 2006. http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/ • Tarbuck, Edward J., and Frederick K. Lutgens. Earth Science, 7th Edition. New York: Macmillan College Publishing Company, 1994. • Francis, David, and Henry Hengeveld. Extreme Weather and Climate Change. Environment Canada. 8 January 2006. http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding/ccd/ccd_9801/ccd_9801_e.pdf • Synthesis Report: Summary Report for Policy Makers. Interngovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 8 January 2006. http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:pQvAnSohe-8J:www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdj+synthesis+report:+Summary+Report+for+Policy+Makers&hl=en • Baier, Wolfgang, and Raymond P. Motha. “Impacts of Present and Future Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agriculture in the Temperature Regions: North America.” Climate Change. May 2005. Proquest. 8 January 2006. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=898262581&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=6785&RQT=309&VName=PQD • Global Warming Puts the Arctic on Thin Ice. Natural Resources Defense Council. 8 January 2006. http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp

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