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The Spratly Islands: Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea?

The Spratly Islands: Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea?. Raul Bernal Constantin Sabet d’Acre. Location Location Location. Our Journey. Who wants what and why Why it’s important Strategic Interests of China and the US Potential for conflict.

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The Spratly Islands: Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea?

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  1. The Spratly Islands:Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea? Raul BernalConstantinSabetd’Acre

  2. Location • Location • Location

  3. Our Journey • Who wants what and why • Why it’s important • Strategic Interests of China and the US • Potential for conflict

  4. Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, Part I • The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) • Claims based on UNCLOS • Brunei • Malaysia

  5. Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, II • Based on history • People’s Republic of China • Taiwan • Based on mix of history and UNCLOS • Philippines • Vietnam • Other concerned party: Indonesia

  6. Driving Forces of Interest • Strategic position in terms of security • Economic importance • Shipping lanes • Oil and gas • Fishing and manure

  7. Oil Flows and Transports

  8. Driving Forces of Interest • Strategic position in terms of security • Economic importance • Shipping lanes • Oil and gas • Fishing and manure

  9. Perceptions of China in SE Asia • Historical mistrust of China • Rapid change in attitudes in the past 5-10 years • Reengagement with Southeast Asia • Economic benefits, but many still skeptical of long-term ambitions

  10. China’s Conduct in the SCS • 1974 – Paracel Islands seized • 1992 – Territorial expansion law • 1995 – Seizure of Mischief Reef • 2002 – Conduct of Parties in SCS • 2005 – Joint seismic survey • 2010 – Chinese fishing patrols Source: www.spratlys.org

  11. China’s Strategic Interests • Access to natural resources • Control of sea lanes • Projection of military force • Extended regional influence Source: PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs

  12. US Strategic Interests • Counter Chinese influence • Security of sea lanes • Military access • Counterterrorism efforts Source: US Defense Department

  13. Potential for US-China Conflict • US disengagement and “benign neglect” of SE Asia • Oil exploration by US companies • 2001 – Spy plane incident • 2002 – USS Bowditch • 2009 – USNS Impeccable

  14. USNS Impeccable Incident • Sonar and mapping ship operating within China’s EEZ • Surrounded by several Chinese vessels • Chinese submarine base at Hainan island • US responds with Aegis Class Destroyer (USS Chung-Hoon) Source: Jane’s Intelligence Review

  15. Analysis • US: • not taking sides on sovereignty issues • but concerned with increasing Chinese influence and military power in the region • China: • becoming more assertive in territorial claims despite increasing regional integration • ASEAN: • desires closer economic ties with China • but engages the US as a hedge against Chinese influence

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