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Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis

Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis. Merritt, B.C. April 5th, 2007. Presentation Overview. Project Objectives MPB in Merritt Basecase Sensitivity Analyses FFT Opportunity. Project Objectives. Impact of MPB on harvest levels and other forest values such as wildlife habitat

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Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis

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  1. Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis Merritt, B.C. April 5th, 2007

  2. Presentation Overview • Project Objectives • MPB in Merritt • Basecase • Sensitivity Analyses • FFT Opportunity

  3. Project Objectives Impact of MPB on harvest levels and other forest values such as wildlife habitat Evaluate how silviculture can reduce the impacts More specifically: • When, and by how much, will the beetle affect timber supply • Recommend and assess potential ways to improve timber supply and non-timber values • Prioritize spending

  4. Classification of Land Base

  5. Mountain Pine Beetle

  6. 2006 projection - Merritt

  7. 2010 projection - Merritt

  8. 2015 projection - Merritt

  9. 2020 projection - Merritt

  10. Merritt MPB Projections by Severity

  11. Defining a Base Case • Updated netdown; • Updated resultant file, which includes an updated inventory; • New analysis units and yield tables; • Recalculation of the PSI for each resultant polygon; • Old growth management area (OGMAs); • Disturbing the inoperable; • Updated UWR modelling; and • MPB projections to 2015.

  12. Base Case

  13. Conversion to Managed

  14. Harvest by Species

  15. ECA by CWS

  16. -Return on Investment (ROI)-Merchantability Economic Indicators

  17. Return On Investment (ROI) • Uses TIPSY to generate: • Yield Tables • Costs and Revenues • Standardized FFT IRR Worksheet: • Calculates ROI and NPVs

  18. Example ROI Output ROI = 3.38%

  19. Merchantability A tool for describing the relative economics of timber harvesting opportunities across a forested landbase. Merchantability = Product Value – Operating Costs

  20. Merchantability- Product Value Product value approximates the selling price for lumber and chips Product Value is a function of: • Site Index • Species • Stocking • Age

  21. Merchantability- Operating Costs Costs involved in operating, building roads, harvesting wood, manufacturing products and reforestation • Operating cost is a function of: • Slope • Terrain • Volume/ha • Cycle time • Species • BEC zone • Stocking • Age

  22. Merchantability- Index • Each stand given a Merchantability Class • Summarized by graphs and maps

  23. Merchantability- Map product

  24. Merchantability- Area Summary

  25. Sensitivity Analyses

  26. Harvest all MPB Very Severe

  27. Plant all unharvested MPB Plant 122,000 ha Mid term increase: 370,000 m3/year

  28. Plant Unharvested MPB-ROI > 2% Plant 89,000 ha Mid term increase: 370,000 m3/year

  29. Faster MPB Spread

  30. Presently Utilized Uplift Level

  31. Retain 150m3/ha non-Pl

  32. Kill MPB down to 10cm DBH

  33. Two year shelf life

  34. Two year shelf life-Availability

  35. Plant GI spruce instead of pine

  36. Retention Sensitivities

  37. FFT Opportunity Scenario • Increased Planting of Genetically Improved Spruce • Plant all unharvested MPB kill with an ROI > 2% • CWS Restoration (planting) occurs irrespective of ROI • Retention of 100% FN Retention areas

  38. FFT Opportunity Scenario

  39. FFT Opportunity Age class

  40. FFT Opportunity ECA Impact

  41. FFT Planting Opportunity

  42. Classification of Landbase

  43. Classification of Landbase

  44. Environmental Reporting • Seral Stage • Patch Size • Fine filter- UWR/Grizzly/Woodpecker • Harvest in FN Retention Area • CWS- ECA/Road Density/Seral stage

  45. Seral Stage

  46. Harvest in FN Retention Areas • No harvest in FN 100% for 15 years

  47. Patch Size

  48. CWS ECA

  49. CWS Seral Stage

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