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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Liquidity Surge”

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Liquidity Surge”. With John Thomas from Silicon Valley , CA , April, 17, 2019 www.madhedgefundtrader.com. October 25-26 Lake Tahoe Conference 50 % of seats already sold out.

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The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Liquidity Surge”

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  1. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“Liquidity Surge” With John Thomasfrom Silicon Valley, CA, April, 17, 2019www.madhedgefundtrader.com

  2. October 25-26 Lake Tahoe Conference50% of seats already sold out *Two days of informative speakers on crucial trading and investment issues*Trade tips with the most successful Mad Hedge traders*2 nights in the Hyatt, including all you can eat and drink*Tickets are a bargain at $699 to $1,999*Buy now, upper ticket classessell out first

  3. Trade Alert PerformanceNew Highs! *January 9.49% Final *July +0.0% Final*February +4.64% Final *August +2.19% MTD*March +1.78%Final *September 1.38% Final*April -1.50% MTD *October +1.37% Final*May +1.07% Final *November -1.83% Final*June +4.15% Final *December -4.13% Final*2019 Year to Date +13.92%compared to +13.22%for the Dow Average*Trailing One year return +27.22%,+314.06%since inception,*Average annualized return of 33.65% for 9 1/2 years

  4. Portfolio ReviewOut of the Market at an All Time High Expiration P&L

  5. GTD Daily Audited Performance

  6. GTD 9 Year Daily Audited Performance

  7. The Method to My Madness *Sudden global liquidity surge is driving all asset prices upward simultaneously….BUY EVERYTHING FOR A TRADE*Foreign capital pouring into the US is pricing all assets at a premium*Low interest rates are the main driver now and traders are ignoring everything else, like earnings and valuations, and the economy*Profit taking in bonds knocks them for 4 points*Decline in earnings growth is accelerating but may bounce back in Q2 and Q3*Oil remains strong*China trade war moves to the back burnerovershadowed by international bond markets

  8. The Mad Hedge Profit PredictorMarket Timing Index-An artificial intelligence driven algorithm that analyzes 30 differenteconomic, technical, and momentum driven indicators

  9. The Mad Hedge Profit PredictorFirmly in “SELL” Territory-Risk is Extreme SELL BUY

  10. The Global Economy – Global Synchronized Weakness *March Nonfarm Payroll Report comes in at a stable 196,000, Headline UnemploymentRate at 3.8%*Economic data flow is almost all terrible, except for housing, which had a couple of positive data points*Trump threatens to move the trade war from China to Europe*Europe is close to printing actual recession numbers*Stable dollar will help non-dollar plays, like emerging markets (EEM) and the currencies (FXE) and (FXA), and oil (USO)

  11. Weekly Jobless ClaimsNew 49 Year Low-8,000 at 196,000

  12. Soybeans (-20%)-Trade War Indicatorrolling over price action hits on a big “Sell the news” on China trade deal,or no China trade deal-no flood boost

  13. The Bill Davis ViewA $1,500 Upgrade for the Mad Day Trader Service

  14. Stocks – All Eyes on Q1 *All eyes now on Q1 earnings, which are coming in stronger than expected because of excessive forecast cuts in December*The market is looking tired with volume collapsing and valuations at multi year highs*Investors focusing on an economic bounce back in Q2 and Q3 and ignoring a weak Q1*A lot of investors flushed out in December have still not gotten back in, so a slow low volume grind up could continue for a few more weeks*Analysts are now looking for negative earnings growth in 2019*Is a big “Sell in May” setting up?*Mad Hedge has gone to a rare 100% cashposition in all portfolios*Bottom Line: its bet the ranch time on tech longs,but stay away from those with big China exposure, like Apple, and weak dollar plays like energy, andemerging markets

  15. S&P 500-stopped out of long 2/$285-$290 bear put spreadtook profits on long 2/$270-$275 bear put spread

  16. Dow Average-

  17. Russell 2000 (IWM)-out for even Long 4/$160-$165 vertical bear put spread

  18. NASDAQ (QQQ)

  19. (VIX)- In “BUY” Territory

  20. iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

  21. Microsoft (MSFT)- Earnings beattook profits on long 4/$108-$113 call spreadtook profits on long 2/$85-$90 call spread

  22. Facebook (FB)- FANG bounce

  23. Apple (AAPL)- Bull RunNew Apple Plus Streaming Servicestopped out of long 3/$180-$185 bear put spreadstopped out of long 11/$175-$180 bear put spreadtook profits on long 11/$165-$175 bear put spread

  24. Alphabet (GOOGL)-took profits on long 4/$1,080-$1,120 bull call spread

  25. Amazon (AMZN)-Back to Top of Rangetook profits on long 4/$1,600-$1,650 call spreadtook profits on long 2/$1,200-$1,300 call spread

  26. PayPal (PYPL)-Fintech Startook profits on long 4/$90-$95 call spread

  27. NVIDIA (NVDA)- earnings beat

  28. Micron Technology (MU)-

  29. Salesforce (CRM)-took profits on long 2/$105-$115 call spread

  30. Boeing (BA)-took profits on long 4/$315-$335 call spread Next to happen in the recertification bounce

  31. Walt Disney (DIS)-took profits on long 4/$100-$104 call spreadCovered Short 4/$114 calls

  32. Adobe (ADBE)-The Quality Non-China tech play

  33. Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)-(GE), (MMM), (UNP), (UTX), (BA), (HON)

  34. US Steel (X)-Tariffs TroubleImport duties cause users to abandon steelUnwound the entire Trump trade

  35. Tesla (TSLA)-Q1 Earningsstopped out of long 4/$300-$320 put spreaddelayed Phase II Gigafactory

  36. Southwest Airlines (LUV)-Boeing 737 Max biggest buyer

  37. Delta Airlines (DAL)

  38. Transports Sector SPDR (XTN)-(ALGT), (ALK), (JBLU), (LUV), (CHRW), (DAL)

  39. Health Care Sector (XLV), (RXL)-New Highs(JNJ), (PFE), (MRK), (GILD), (ACT), (AMGN)

  40. Goldman Sachs (GS)-falling trading volume

  41. Palo Alto Networks (PANW)-Hacking never goes out of fashion

  42. Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)(DIS), (AMZN), (HD), (CMCSA), (MCD), (SBUX)

  43. Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-

  44. Japan (DXJ)-

  45. Emerging Markets (EEM)- Time to Buy on Weak Dollar

  46. Bonds – Battle of the Fed *President demanding artificially low interest rates and more QE to create a stock market bubble going into the 2020 election*Fed has cancelled all 2019 rate rises but won’t go further*Loss of SALT deductions is pouring money into muni bonds as high end investors seek new tax breaks. Illinois is paying 3.1% despite being on the edge of bankruptcy*10 year rates have backed off 27 basis points, from 2.33% to 2.60%*Foreign Investors Pour into the US Bond Market*German bund yields plunge to +0.05%, while Japan government bonds turn in a -0.04% yield

  47. Treasury ETF (TLT) –Bottom of Rangetook profits on long 4/$128-$130 bear put spreadlong 3/$124-$126 put spread- expired at maximum profit pointExpiration of long 2/$124-$126 put spread at maximum profit pointtook profits on long 2/$125-$128 call spread againtook profits on long 1/$124-$127 call spreadtook profits on long 2/$125-$128 call spread

  48. Ten Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) 2.50%Breakdown

  49. Junk Bonds (HYG) 5.27% Yield

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