Services to support climate risk assessment and management: Essential elements

1. Services to support climate risk assessment and management: Essential elements Roger S. Pulwarty PhD Director, Climate and Societal Interactions Division and National Integrated Drought Information System NOAA

2. “The IPCC-SREX report addresses, for the first time, how integrating expertise in climate science, hazards and disaster risk management, and adaptationcan inform, help to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disastersin a changing climate” 2012 IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risksof Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

3. Managing the risks: sea level rise in tropical Small Islands Risk Factors Risk Management/Adaptation • earlywarning systems • maintenance of drainage • regionalrisk pooling • relocation • shore erosion • Saltwater coastal intrusion • coastal populations • tourism economies Projected globally: very likely contribution of sea level rise to extreme coastal high coastal levels (such as storm surges)

4. Weather-Climatea continuum and an adaptation deficit Climate spans a large range of temporal and spatial scales Impacts result from a number of complex variables 30DAYS 1SEASON Heat Waves Floods Storm Track Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation++++++ Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases 3YEARS 10YEARS 30YEARS 100YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY 4

5. Regional Scale Decadal Predictions ? Decadal Trend (20th Century) Interannual (precipitation) Climate Change Projections do not deliver predictions of decadal variability

6. from 5x to 10x +2 Adaptation Willows and Connell, UKCIP, 2003 • Proven concept of ETCCDI Managing the risks of climate extremes – Albert Klein Tank @ KNMI.nl

7. The solution space

8. Climate Information Services Drought and Flood ImpactsAssessments and Scenarios Monitoring & Forecasting Information Services in support of Adaptation Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation Communication and Outreach

9. The WMO on Climate Risk Management Working Group proposes a definition of CRM as “a systematic and coordinated process in which climate information is used to reduce the risks associated with climate variability and change, and to take advantage of opportunities, in order to improve the resilience of social, economic and environmental systems” Risk Management - Current Issues and Challenges

10. Climate Risk Management (CRM) is a term is used for a large and growing body of work, bridging the climate change adaptation, disaster managementand development sectors, amongst many others

11. Assessing Drought Early Warning Systems –WMO, NOAA/NIDIS, UNISDR International Drought Information Systems (November, 2011 National Drought Policy 2013) Wilhite, Sivakumar, Pulwarty, 2013)

12. Preparedness and adaptation-Through what mechanisms and pathways? • Information systems • Infrastructure • Insurance • Integrated systems • Institutional capacity and coordination

13. Sovereign liquidity gap

14. Probability thresholds for a decision on fertilizer application to take advantage of forecasted seasonal rainfall Probability (Density) Climate related Outcome (e.g.,crop yield) Role of effective extension

15. Food Security Early Warning Scenario Approach A dynamic Early Warning Tool for Contingency & Response Planning

16. sample sample Most estimates of disaster losses exclude indirect losses – livelihoods, informal economies, intangible losses including ecosystem services, quality of life and cultural impacts In some areas drying due to climate change will be overlain on the periodic events/droughts those areas have always experienced Short-term actions do not always provide long term risk reduction-can reduce or increase longer-term risks For exposed and vulnerable communities, even non-extreme weather and climate eventscan have extreme impacts 16

17. Climate information research and products supporting Operatonal Services Historical Climatologies Indices Status reports Near real time Data Special Analyses for CC Reviews analysis/data Publications Metadata Web accessible statistics, graphs, Maps Relative status of informationSTATIC DYNAMIC Structural Management Operations Public Strategic Planning Design Safety factors Energy Siting designs Hazards/warnings Streamflow Monthly/seasonal Planning International Markets Demand National drought planning Resource allocation Food security Hazards and health Site planning Community health and well being Climate related standards

18. Barriers and bridges • Capability of governmental institutions and sectoral institutions to identify their climate information requirements and risk reduction priorities- • role of leadership at each level • collaborative framework between research and management • impediments to the flow of information Result-Limited national and local capabilities for climate data processing and applications

19. Weak accountability system for encouraging and mandating use of available scientific information for appropriate risk reduction measures • Weak or non-existent planning of the investment budget for actions • The lack of a culture of risk reduction and proper maintenance, and supported for vulnerable physical and social infrastructure- • The absence of an efficient monitoring and information systems on extreme climate events and impacts to disseminate information such as warnings and advisories-reports from “stakeholders” • Limited involvement of the private sector to engage with stakeholders in the development of risk management measures Social groups should not only have access but also to the capability to query information provided

20. All IPCC reports had detailed explanations of models, scenarios, downscaling, and climate projections I think you should be more explicit here in step two

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22. Coping with Drought Research Identify socio-economic drought, data and info needs of resource managers and policy/decision makers Drought Monitor Evaluate and transition drought information products to operations • How does new information relate to what is already known?-How often should criteria for “robustness” be reconsidered?

23. Managing risks in a changing climate-an iterative process Monitoring Innovation Evaluation Learning Learning-by-doing and low-regrets actions can help reduce risks now and also promote future adaptation-are we doing and not learning?

24. Governing climate risk assessment and management Accountability- CRM needs to be located in a department, preferably with planning oversight and some fiscal responsibility-provide political authority and policy coherence across sectors. Emergency management organizations can rarely play that role. Efficiency- only occurs when CRM is carried out in partnership with at-risk households and communities and organizations that represent them. Benefits are cost-effectiveness, sustainability, citizenship and social cohesion.

25. Climate Information Services GFCS, CMO/CIMH, NMHS, NOAA MONITORING/RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT AND ENGAGEMENT (data analysis, products) PROTOTYPING (applying scenarios etc.) DELIVERY, EVALUATION. Scientific Knowledge development and Management Impacts Assessment and Decision support tools Capacity and Coordination: Products and Services + =

26. Thank You!

27. Thank you

28. Ecosystems and Forestry Agriculture and Food Security Coastal zones and fisheries

29. Extremes in the context of variability and change: Pressure for better information to support planning under changing extremes-rates and transitions Is a threshold an emergent property of some underlying set of attributes of a system? (models not calibrated for rapid transitions) How does new information relate to what is already known?-how often should criteria for “robustness” be reconsidered? Many public sector applications require a more systematic connection between early warning scenarios and recommended decisions than do private sector applications More challenging is understanding the socialization of lessons learned by particular individuals and organizations through their own, direct trial and error experiences

30. Elements of effective information systems-overview Knowledge development and management Product and delivery systems Capacity and coordination

31. Before making forecasts: • Meet with recipients or representatives to determine which measures they would find most useful • Independently analyze the problems that stakeholders face in order to obtain a complementary perspective • Empirically test formats for communication in order to ensure that stakeholders understand the information as intended • Seek users explicit agreement on appropriate formats. • Develop seasonal decision calendars cooperatively with stakeholders to determine key entry points for different kinds of information R.S. Pulwarty, S. Olanrewaju and P. Zorba 2008 Communicating Agroclimatological Information, including Forecasts, for Agricultural Decisions. WMO/CAgM Guide to Agricultural Meteorological Practices (GAMP)

32. Improving the linkages between information and decision-making-key considerations • What is the quality of information available to decision-makers at all levels? • What factors influence whether or not such information will be used? • What factors influence whether risk communications are trusted? • What governance structures may facilitate better decision-making practice? • How can information systems be adapted to the different levels of decision makers?

33. While making forecasts: Make the nature of links to decision calendars and the forecast as explicit as possible, including alternate possible outcomes Document the assumptions underlying forecasts including how changes seasonal development would change the forecast (how is the forecast verifying?) When evaluating use: Conduct post-season farmer workshops (also during if possible) Review what was predicted and what assumptions were made Construct explanations not only for what actually happened but what could have happened as a way of retrieving uncertainties at the time of predictions Evaluate what new was learned about the process producing the event predicted as well as the event itself

34. Early Warning Information Systems - Architecture: How would this have helped in previous decisions EW(I)S Research & Monitoring Management Capacity Coordination Decision Support Tools Services/product Delivery Regional, National, Local Institutions

35. CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY Probability (Density) Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)

36. Monthly of Precipitation None of the Years behaves like the long term mean Probability of a Year being “Average” = ZERO Still, Planning is based on “AVERAGE” year Can we use something with Probability > 0 ? Seasonal Climate Forecasts (likelihood of “Drier”, “Wetter”)

37. Climate information needs of the insurance industry • High quality climate data (especially of extreme events) are the preconditions of proper insurance risk management • Information on the links between natural (ENSO, AMO, NAO) and anthropogenic changes of extremes • Development of new weather related insurance covers (e.g. for renewable energies) available of quality specific climate data are a prerequisite • For developing countries lack of appropriate climate data is the main obstacle for introducing micro insurance systems • Insurance industry is also a data provider: loss data of extreme weather events Munich Re, Swiss Re, Willis Re

38. Climate applications vs. climate adaptation to inform adaptation

39. Science and Policy: Information Chains Knowledge “Translation”, “Tailoring” (Boundary Organizations) • Knowledge • Application • Operation • Policy Knowledge Generation New Research Questions New Knowledge Demands Here are the main Challenges: Need a “new type” of Scientist (integrator, interpreter, entrepreneur) Example: Information Chain in Disaster Risk Management Climate Information and Products for Disasters National Emergency System Climate Information Products Climate Science Local Implementation When the Chains are not present: Create them the solution is not to “skip links”, but to create the links When Chains are established and strong we do not need to “market”

40. Whence does climate variability arise? PDO AMO ENSO

41. a. b. Average physical exposure (1970, 2030) a. Tropical cyclones b. Flooding