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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update

USWRP. Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update. JHT Staff March 2004. TPC/NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities. Improve guidance for TC intensity change, especially rapid intensification Real-time “guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation

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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update

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  1. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update JHT Staff March 2004

  2. TPC/NHCTropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities • Improve guidance for TC intensity change, especially rapid intensification • Real-time “guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation • Improve guidance for tropical cyclone precipitation amount and distribution

  3. TPC/NHCTropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities • Identify and reduce occurrence of guidance and official track outliers • Implement improved observational systems in the storm and its environment that provide data for forecaster analysis and model initialization • Develop guidance for changes in TC size and related parameters, including combined sea heights

  4. JHT Round 1 • 10 projects originally funded in FY01 • 9 of 10 renewed for funding in FY02, concluded summer 2003 • 6 projects accepted in December 2003 for operational implementation in 2004 • Decisions on two projects deferred until completion of new, closely related JHT projects • One project was not accepted for operational implementation at this time

  5. JHT Successful Transfers from Research to Operations AMSU intensity and size estimates GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades TC rainfall climatology and persistence (R-CLIPER) model Probability of rapid intensification New SHIPS model predictors

  6. Factors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementation • Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy • Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs • Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. • Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support

  7. JHT Round 2 • 15 projects funded in FY03 (August 2003) • Will be reviewed for renewal (FY04 funding) in May-June 2004 • First full season of real-time testing and evaluation, May-Nov 2004 • Second year of testing and evaluation will conclude August 2005 • Decisions in late 2005 for operational implementation in 2006

  8. Funding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA FY2003$1.35M FY2002$1.2M

  9. FY03 Funded Project Focus Areas

  10. Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty and improving extended range forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models • PI: James Goerss (Naval Research Lab) • Spending six months (Nov 03-Apr 04) at TPC

  11. 2001-2003 Atlantic GUNA Ensemble TC Forecast Error (nm) 619 467 358 229 176 Number of Forecasts

  12. 2001-2003 Atlantic Forecast Availability Percentage

  13. Hurricane Isabel – 00Z September 13, 2003 Predicted CONU 76% Confidence Radius

  14. Hurricane Kate – 00Z September 30, 2003 Predicted CONU 76% Confidence Radius

  15. Implementation of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT) • PIs: James Kossin and Chris Velden (CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin)

  16. Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation Patrick A. Harr Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project

  17. GFDL Stage IV GFS Eta

  18. JHT Round 3 • Preparation of Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) document currently underway • Q&A panel session planned for AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, May 2004 in Miami Beach • FFO targeted for release on 1 June 2004 • Will be open to government, academic, and private sector applicants worldwide • Estimated available funding $1.5 million • New projects begin ~March 2005 • Two-year projects conclude ~March 2007 • Possible operational implementations for 2007 hurricane season

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