NCSoSE and ODU EMSE Overview for Ad-Hoc Meeting on SOSE Charles B. Keating, Ph.D.

1. NCSoSE and ODU EMSE Overview for Ad-Hoc Meeting on SOSE Charles B. Keating, Ph.D. Adrian Gheorghe, Ph.D Kevin MacG. Adams, Ph.D.

2. Topic 1 NCSoSE Overview

3. 1.A new class of problems is emerging, rendering past successes of systems engineering ineffective. 2.Technology is essential to development of solutions to complex system problems – but not the only consideration – and often not the primary driver. Technology TSE Effectiveness Methodology Philosophy Axiomatic Application Complexity October 2002 – NCSoSE Established

4. “Wicked Problems” and “Messes” Ambiguous Boundaries Fluid Situation & Requirements Divergent Stakeholders Ill-defined Problems Uncertain Resources Dominant Context Deep Systemic Barriers Satisficing Solutions The NCSoSE Problem Domain NCSOSE develops and tests theory, methods, technologies, and tools to more effectively deal with complex system problem domains Problem Domain

5. NCSoSE Integrated Core Research Research to enhance capabilies Enhance practice and capabilities for dealing with complex system problems. Explore phenomena associated with complex system problems to enhance understanding. Develop and test approaches and technologies to more effectively deal with complex system problem domains. Page 10

6. NCSOSE Integrated Core Research Current NCSoSE Research Thrusts Complex Adaptive Situations Environment R&D System Governance Critical Infrastructures, Risk, and Vulnerability Research & Training for next generation SoS Engineers System of Systems Architecture and Modeling

7. Diverse Capabilities to Support Research Systems & Software Engineering Opns Rsh & Decision Analysis Cost Engineering & Analysis System of Systems Eng Complex Systems Problem Domains NCSoSE Capabilities Risk, Vulnerability, & Uncertainty Modeling, Analysis & Simulation Quality & Organizational Management Systems Knowledge Systems Engineering Multidisciplinary Design Optimization

8. Topic 2 UAV & Satellite Research

9. Use of Top-Ease to Guide Transition T1 Now End State T3 T2 NAS and UAS Descriptions -processes -external influences -activities -organizations Top-Ease® Risk based Guidance and projected results for each step in the transition Flight Research Results Risk Calculation Engine Vulnerability Calculation Engine

10. Risk Scorecard

11. Risk Map for Air Traffic Management Processes

12. Anti Satellite Weapons (ASATs) • “At 5.28 p.m. EST January 11, 2007 the People’s Republic of China successfully destroyed a defunct Chinese weather satellite, FY-1C. The destruction was carried out by a modified medium-range ballistic missile with kinetic ASAT warhead. FY-1C was a weather satellite orbiting Earth in polar orbit at an altitude of about 537 miles (865 km), with a mass of about 750 kg. Launched in 1999, it was the fourth satellite in the Feng Yun series.” A. Gheorghe, D. Vamanu, “Risk and Vulnerability Games. Today’s Plate – ASAT”, International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2007

13. Chinese January 2007 ASAT Test Debris Cloud caused by FY-1C

14. ASAT – Scenario Design

15. Risk Assessment Gaming Sequence Scenario as the indicator for Cycle One Process(@ Time = t) Step 1. Event – Present new information Step 2. Group Meetings – develop new policy Step 3. Discussions and interactions Step 4. Consensus on policy Step 5. Make decisions Step 6. Process the decisions Indicators (at time t+1) for Cycle 2 The Simulation Mechanism Formal Informal ………. Computer models & Algorithms on charts Expert Elicitation Cycle 3 through (at time n (t+n) Damage Indicators Players vote on outcomes & Experts panel as judges PNC Accepted Policy (Debriefing) Expert Elicitation

16. Topic 3 Research & Training for Next Generation SoS

17. Topic 5 SoSE Training for Navy Engineers

18. What is the SoSEC Program? System of Systems Engineering Certificate (SoSEC) • A training and research program • Designed to expose Navy engineers and technicians to thinking, techniques, and methods for System of Systems Engineering

19. Why do we need a SoSEC Program? • There are simply not enough Navy civilian scientists and engineers advancing through the ranks to replace the generation who can retire in the next ten years. • Adapted from a Figure in Kavetsky, R., Anand, D.K., Short, J. & Dieter, G.N. (2004). New Paradigms in Naval Science and Technology. Proceedings of the 2004 American Society for Engineering Education Annual Conference and Exposition. Washington, DC: American Society for Engineering Education

20. What does the Literature contain on Training Systems Engineers? • Empirical research conducted at MIT looked at systems thinking in individual, distributed, and collaborative environments and has implications for enhancing the systems thinking capacity of individuals and teams working in system engineering (Rhodes, Lamb, & Nightingale, 2008). • Rhodes, D.H., Lamb, C.T. & Nightingale, D.J. (2008). Empirical Research on Systems Thinking and Practice in the Engineering Enterprise. 2008 Proceedings of the 2nd IEEE International Systems Conference (Apr 2008). Piscataway, NJ: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.

21. Systems Thinking Research and Implications for Systems Engineering

22. How is the SoSEC Program Designed? • Foundation training • Traditional systems engineering • Systems theory • Complex systems • System of systems engineering • Case study learning • Direct applicability to a system of systems problem from the real-world • Case study deliverables • NCSoSE technical report • Briefing to senior leaders

23. How is the Curriculum Integrated? Systems Engineering Introduction to the foundations and fundamentals for systems engineering. Systems Engineering Systems Theory Exploration of the principles, laws, and concepts foundational to systems based problem solving. Systems Theory Complex Systems Complex Systems Understanding the nature and implications for dealing with complexity of modern day systems. System of Systems Engineering System of Systems Engineering Examination of the methodologies, tools, and issues for engineering systems of systems. Capstone Case Study Capstone A real world application that integrates the entirity of the curriculum -- targeted to a specific problem.

24. How does SoSEC Help SPAWAR? • Introduces new methods & techniques for addressing complex systems problems • Integrates existing knowledge with new methods & techniques to create innovative solutions for complex systems problems • Reinforces the teamwork aspect of engineering complex systems through a real-world case study • Analyzes a specific system of systems problem faced by the Navy in a formal capstone case study which includes a report and briefing to senior leaders

25. How does SoSEC Help the Student? • New knowledge, skills, and abilities to improve job performance • DoD Credentialing • DAU course credit through the SSC-LANT sponsored fulfillment process • SPAWAR CDM and DoD SPRDE career path levels credit • Certificate from NCSoSE/ODU in: • System of Systems Engineering for Carrier Strike Group Information Exchange • Six (6) Graduate Credits if admitted to the ODU systems engineering program

26. How is SoSEC Progressing? • 1st Class had a cohort of 18 mid-grade SSC-LANT engineers and technicians. Completed 22 Dec 2009. • 1st SoSE Case study was Carrier Strike Group Information Exchange • Briefed SPAWAR leadership on March 2, 2010 • Follow-on course will include the ability to broadcast the class synchronously to Charleston, New Orleans, and Washington, DC

27. Results of 2009 SoSEC Class Capstone Case Study Capstone Carrier Strike Group Information Exchange – real world problem used to train SPAWAR engineers in SoSE To be featured in a special issue of the International Journal of Systems of Systems Engineering (IJSSE) • Technical Report validated SoSE Method • Briefed to senior SPAWAR leaders

28. Topic 4 Master of Engineering in Systems Engineering

29. M.E. Integration of Core Courses Systems Engineering Management Integrated Systems Engineering 640 602 Requirements Management, Verification, & Validation Systems Architecture and Modeling Systems Engineering Core 641 660 Risk & Vulnerability Management of Complex Interdependent Systems Systems Analysis 715 771 Capstone or Certification

30. Elective Courses • Four elective courses (12 credits) from: • ENMA 702 – Methods for Rational Decision Modeling • ENAM 703 – Optimization Methods • ENAM 710 – Modeling and Analysis of Systems • ENMA 712 – Multi-criteria Decision Analysis and Decision Support Systems • ENMA 716 – Complex Adaptive Situations Environment • ENMA 717 – Cost Engineering • ENMA 723 – Enterprise and Complex System Dynamics • ENMA 750 – System of Systems Engineering • ENMA 751 – Complexity, Engineering and Management • ENMA 763 – Robust Engineering Design

31. Risk Governance Framework Management Sphere:Decision on & Implementation of Actions Assessment Sphere:Generation of Knowledge Pre-Assessment • Pre-Assessment: • Problem Framing • Early Warning • Screening • Determination of Scientific Conventions • Risk Management Strategy: • routine-based • risk-informed/robustness-focussed • precaution-based/resilience-focussed • discourse-based 3 Risk Appraisal Risk Management • Risk Appraisal: Risk Assessment • Hazard Identification & Estimation • Exposure & Vulnerability Assessment • Risk Estimation • Concern Assessment • Risk Perceptions • Social Concerns • Socio-Economic Impacts • Risk Management • Implementation • Option Realisation • Monitoring & Control • Feedback from Risk Mgmt. Practice • Decision Making • Option Identification & Generation • Option Assessment • Option Evaluation & Selection Communication • Knowledge Challenge: • Complexity • Uncertainty • Ambiguity 1 Tolerability & Acceptability Judgement • Risk Evaluation • Judging the Tolera-bility & Acceptability • Need for Risk Reduction Measures • Risk Characterisation • Risk Profile • Judgement of the Seriousness of Risk • Conclusions & Risk Reduction Options • Risk judged: • acceptable • tolerable • intolerable 2

32. Resilience Governance in Progress