THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM

1. THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM Scientific Guidance Provided by NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Presentation prepared by Z. Toth

2. THORPEX ORGANIZATION EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHTSCIENTIFIC DIRECTION INTERNATIONAL LEVEL – LINK WITH WMO • International Core Steering Committee • Michel Beland (Co-chair) • Louis Uccellini (US Representat.) • International Science Steering Comm. • Co-chaired by • Mel Shapiro & Alan Thorpe REGIONAL (NORTH AMERICAN) LEVEL – LINK WITH USWRP Oversight provided by North American members of International Core Steering Comm. • North American Science Steering Com • Co-chaired by • David Parsons & Pierre Gauthier NOAA LEVEL – LINK WITH CORPORATE MANAGEMENT NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Com. L. Uccellini (Chair), M. Uhart, M. Colton, and Jack Hayes • NOAA Science Steering Committee • Z. Toth (Chair, Program Manager) • 12 NOAA and outside members

3. NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee Louis Uccellini (Chair) NWS Michael Uhart OWAQ Marie Colton ORA/NESDIS Jack Hayes NWS NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Zoltan Toth Chair, Program Manager NOAA/NWS Observations: Data Assimilation Jaime Daniels NOAA/NESDIS Craig Bishop NRL David Emmitt SWA L.-P. Riishojgaard JCSDA Thomas Schlatter NOAA/FSL Chris Velden CIMSS Forecasting/Predictability: Socioeconomic Applications: Jim Hansen MIT Rebecca Morss NCAR Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill NOAA/CDC Marty Ralph NOAA/ERL George Kiladis NOAA/AL

4. THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002): • NOAA NWS • Zoltan Toth • Naomi Surgi • NOAA OAR • Melvyn Shapiro • Jeff Whitaker • Outside NOAA • Craig Bishop NRL • David Carlson NCAR • Ron Gelaro NASA • Rebecca Morss NCAR • John Murray NASA • Chris Snyder NCAR With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team Acknowledgements: D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

5. NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX • 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists • Apr 2000 First International Meeting • Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed • Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting • Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting • Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan • Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed • Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment • Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity • Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received • Oct-Dec 03 Atlantic Regional Campaign

6. THORPEX OBJECTIVES • INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM • SCIENCE GOAL: • Promote research leading to new techniques in: • Observations (Collect data) • Data assimilation (Prepare initial cond.) • Forecasting (Run numerical model) • Socioeconomic Applications • (Post-process, add value, apply) • SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS • SERVICE GOAL: • Accelerate improvements in utility of 1-14 day forecasts for high impact weather • THORPEX ANSWER: • Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through • Enhanced collaboration: Internationally • Among different disciplines • Between research & operations • Example: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

7. THORPEX OBJECTIVES SYNERGISTIC COLLABORATION SCIENCE GOAL – SHARED WITH ALL PARTICIPANTS, COMMON THEME Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting Integrate OBS, DA, FCST, & APPLICATION areas of forecast process All participants contribute to advancing same science objective LEVERAGING RESOURCES SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS SERVICE GOAL – DIFFERENT PRIORITIES FOR EACH AGENCY/NATION Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather Severe weather (Asia?); 1-3 day weather (Europe?); Global monitoring (NASA?) All participants share service applications among themselves COMPLIMENTARY EFFORTS Critical mass of resources needed – Intellectual, Material, Global observs. NEED INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION

8. THORPEX OBJECTIVES • NOAA’S ROLE • Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at: • Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc • Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc • THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs: • NOAA SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL • Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful • 3-7 day precipitation forecasts • 8-14 day daily weather forecasts • NOAA’S ROLE • Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at: • Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc • Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc • THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs: • NOAA’S SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL • Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful • 3-7 day precipitation forecasts • 8-14 day daily weather forecasts

9. THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN TO REACH NOAA’S SERVICE GOAL 52-page document based on input from 18 NOAA and outside experts INTRODUCTION New forecast paradigm SCIENCE PLAN Major Themes Open Science Questions Research and Development Tasks IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Work Plan Deliverables Performance measures Education/Outreach Path to Operations APPENDIX Link with NOAA Strategic Goals NWS STIP Process

10. WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14 • Based on guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models • Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts • Components of NWP forecasting: • Observing system – Collect data • Data assimilation - Prepare initial conditions • Forecast procedures – Run numerical model • Societal & economic applictns – Post-process, add value, apply

11. TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH Each discipline developed on its own Disjoint steps in forecast process Little or no feedback One-way flow of information Uncertainty in process ignored

12. STATUS QUO SCENARIO Forecast skill improves As in any learning process, improvements become harder as skill advances Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements not possible with current status quo approach/resources Substantial resources spent on improving NWP Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability of society to weather increases?

13. THORPEX SOLUTION: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS Invest in major new NWP program => Develop new NWP procedures INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE Return – Pace of forecast improvement maintained/accelerated Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of new procedures Implement operationally most cost effective new methods Return – Enhanced operational capability Improved cost effectiveness

14. NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1 INTEGRATED NWP Sub-systems developed in coordintation End-to-end forecast process Strong feedback Two-way interaction among components Error/uncertainty accounted for at each Based on better understanding of forecast process

15. NEW NWP PARADIGM - 2 Integrated ADAPTIVE Based on more detailed understanding of natural processes Allows more differentiated, case dependent methods/procedures Exmples Observations – Adaptive platform collects data to fill gaps due to clouds Data assimilation – Flow dependent forecast error estimates Forecasting – Situation dependent modeling algorithms – e. g., hurricane relocation Applications – Probabilistic forecast reflects all forecast info => ultimate adaptation of user procedures to weather

16. NEW NWP PARADIGM - 3 Integrated Adaptive USER CONTROLLABLE Based on: 2-way interactions (improved forecast process) Adaptive approach (better understanding of nature) Forecast process Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements Now responsive to CHANGING user needs User needs connected to observational, data assimilation, and forecast systems Dynamical analysis of nature & forecast process New, NWP model based tools Fully interactive forecast process Example:User identifies critical forecast weather event Special observational or forecast procedures Improved targeted forecast

17. SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS -INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE NEW NWP Sub-systems developed in coordination End-to-end forecast process Strong feedback among components Two-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for TRADITIONAL NWP Each discipline developed on its own Disjoint steps in forecast process Little or no feedback One-way flow of information Uncertainty in process ignored SERVICE GOAL: IMPROVE 3-14 DAY FORECASTS

18. NEW NWP PARADIGM - 4 Isolated examples exist INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT NPOESS instrument/platform design: Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecasting needs considered) - North American Observing System initiative ADAPTIVE APPROACH GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed USER CONTROL – WSR program at NWS Threat of winter storm – potential societal impact Dynamical calculations Targeted observations collected Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast process From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make interactive, adaptive, & user controlled methods the RULE

19. NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW – ACTIVITIES • ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS Advance basic knowledge, directed explicitly toward NWP applications Each task conceived as part of overall program • DEVELOP NEW METHODS Sub-system development Academic research Cross-cutting activities Academic + operational centers Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Real-time test and demonstration Infrastructure / Core tasks Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvement THORPEX Data Base Operational Test Facility • RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION Integral part of program Strong participation by operational centers

20. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES Observing system (OBS) Data assimilation (DA) Forecast procedures (FCST) Socio-economic Applications (SA) Cross-cutting activities Core tasks

21. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1 OBSERVING SYSTEM New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network Adaptive observing instruments/platforms For large data sets Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil. (Joint work with data assimilation) Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

22. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2 Observing system DATA ASSIMILATION Improve techniques Forward models, transfer codes Thinning of data Treatment of data with correlated errors Advanced methods to use flow dependent covariance 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance Ensemble based techniques Treatment of model errors Adaptive observing techniques Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting) Methods in the presence of Strong non-linearities Model error Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts Effect on climatological applications of data

23. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3 Observing system Data assimilation FORECAST PROCEDURES Initial ensemble perturbations (Joint with data assimilation) Role of non-modal behavior Separate model related error from initial value errors Systematic vs. random errors Atmospheric features most affected Critical model features responsible for different errors Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques) Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles (physics, etc) Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

24. SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4 Observing system Data assimilation Forecast procedures SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS Probabilistic forecasting Statistical post-processing New procedures for intermediate and end users Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms (Joint with Observtns.) Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process New NWP verification measure Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures Equitable use of NWP resources, how adaptive procedures applied nationally and internationally

25. CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Data needs of NWP What variables/resolution/accuracy required Instrument/platform neutral assessment What instruments/platforms can provide data needs Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms Adaptive component to complement fixed network Most cost effective solution Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems Improvements in which sub-system offer best return? Reallocation of resources Test of proposed operational configurations Major field program if needed Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost effective version

26. CORE TASKS Needed for efficient research & planned operations Strong agency involvement THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts) Information Technology challenge High data volume Transmission Storage of data Foster collaboration in critical areas Workshops (Societal and economic impacts) Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration Critical in past programs like FASTEX Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations Formal procedure for researchers to follow Melting pot for new ideas Venue for cross-cutting activities

27. NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW - DELIVERABLES DELIVERABLES New forecast techniques Observing, data assimilation, forecasting, application tools Accelerated forecast improvements Integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP Cost effective operational system Based on cost/benefit analysis Enhanced user interface COSTS Research Grant Program Integrated program - Four sub-areas & cross-cutting activities Operational Test Facility Simulated forecast process; Database Real-time test/implementation Data transmission, Computations, Training OVERALL MEASURE OF SUCCESS: SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS MUST OUTWEIGH OPERATIONAL COSTS

28. LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL NOAA’S 3rd MISSION GOAL – sounds like excerpt fromTHORPEX doc.: NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage… environmental resources”. Mission strategies and measures of success directly correspond with THORPEX Sub-program areas: NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTS Monitor and Observe Observations Understand and Describe Data Assimilation Assess and Predict Forecasting Engage, Advise, and Inform Socio-economic Applications Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components – NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION

29. LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS National Weather Service (NWS) – NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) – Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research Research must have thread to operations & Credible path to operational implementation SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts: Nature (atmospheric and related processes) Forecast procedures (OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques) Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS

30. THORPEX: A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM OVERVIEW OF NOAA’S THORPEX-RELATED ACTIVITIES • ACCOMPLISHMENTS: • Contributed to International Science Plan • Contributes to forming THORPEX International Program Office (Under WMO auspices in Geneva) • Contributes to North American Implementation Plan • Formed NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee • Developed NOAA THORPEX Long-Term Research Plan • Issued First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity (AO) • ONGOING EFFORT: • Evaluation of research proposals in response to AO • Atlantic Regional Campaign • OUTSTANDING ISSUES: • Funding for AO unresolved • Funding for Operational Test Facility (FTO) needed

31. NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROJECT • GOALS: Accelerate improvements in operational weather forecasting • through Canadian-US collaboration • Seamless (across boundary and in time) suite of products • through joint Canadian-US operational ensemble forecast system • PARTICIPANTS: Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC, MRB) • US National Weather Service (NCEP) • PLANNED ACTIVITIES: Ensemble data exchange (June 2004) • Research and Development -Statistical post-processing • (2003-2007) -Product development • -Verification/Evaluation • Operational implementation (in phases, 2004-2008) • POTENTIAL PROJECT EXPANSION / LINKS: • Shared interest with THORPEX goals of • Improvements in operational forecasts • International collaboration • Expand bilateral NAEFS in future • Entrain broader research community • Multi-center / multi-national ensemble system: • MOA with Japan Meteorological Agency

32. BACKGROUND MATERIAL

33. COSTS/DELIVERABLES Costs: Research program Integrated concept – need to fund research in all four areas of NWP Operational implementation Deliverables New observing, data assimilation, forecasting, & application tools to implement integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP Acceleration in current NWP improvements Socio-economic benefits must outweigh operational costs

34. NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES • 1) Develop new forecast procedures leading to • Improved operational NWP forecasts; and • Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact • ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS • The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools (point 3 above) indicate that the forecast improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX procedures (point 1) can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.

35. NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM Interdisciplinary research Different groups/agencies/nations need to collaborate Integrated approach to NWP – 4 sub-systems Practical goal – Research + Operations Challenging program Need critical mass of resources Intellectual Material Synergistic activities Priorities of other agencies may be different Common overarching THORPEX themes Complementary efforts Leveraging of resources Global data and all NWP methods universally needed INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE