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Household Estimates and Projections: What next?

Household Estimates and Projections: What next?. Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analyses. Household Estimates and Projections: Recent Work. March 2006: 2003 based household projections for England and Regions

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Household Estimates and Projections: What next?

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  1. Household Estimates and Projections: What next? Bob Garland Housing Markets and Planning Analyses

  2. Household Estimates and Projections:Recent Work • March 2006: 2003 based household projections for England and Regions • April 2006: 2003 based household projections for local authorities in England • April onwards- Provision on request of analyses from the 2003 based household projections:- household representative rates; more detailed age and gender breakdown. • October 2006: Household estimates by local authority • Current: 2004 based household projections

  3. Household Estimates and Projections • Next major update: household projections linked to ONS 2006 based sub-national population projections- expected 2nd half of 2008 • A pause and time to review our household projection work • Why? • How? • When?

  4. Why? • Development of housing and planning policy requires evidence of the likely future demand for housing. • Population projections provide evidence on the likely future demand for services such as health and education. • But ‘households’ consume ‘housing’ and household numbers are growing faster than population so we need projections of households • Knowledge of future household growth informs the national policy and Regional and Local Plans.

  5. How? (1) • Makes sense to tie into the ONS official population projections that will have national projections every two years and sub-national projections about one year after each national projection. • Various ways to convert population into household numbers: each have advantages and disadvantages

  6. Projection Process

  7. How? (2) • Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency considered various methods in producing ‘Household Projections for Northern Ireland: 2002-2025’ (Published January 2005) • Each method has advantages and disadvantages

  8. Household Projection Methods

  9. Household Projection Methods: Some Issues

  10. Household Estimates • Household estimates produced by applying projected household representative rates to mid year estimates. • Issues (as raised by Alan Holmans): • Link between dwellings and households • Do we need an integrated model? • Do we need to use administrative sources (e.g. council tax)

  11. Household Projections and Estimate • A review to take in all those involved in estimates and projections • ONS • Communities and Local Government • GRO • NISRA • WAG • Regional Assemblies

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