The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture and Forestry: Policy Update

1. The Climate ChangeChallenge for Agriculture and Forestry: Policy Update At issue is how the world will manageits carbon and nitrogen stocks sustainably Presentation to GHG Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WV, October 8-11, 2002

2. Canadian policy has followed a two-track public process over the last five years ... • Since Kyoto Canada has been working towards a decision on ratification, now expected by year’s end • A Federal/Provincial/Stakeholder process has been underway to determine how Canada could meet its Kyoto obligations • Significant resources have been invested in getting started • Realization action is required regardless of outcome of ratification process • Getting started early will reduce the costs in the long run • Investing in science, awareness, and mitigation actions at home and abroad

3. …where addressing climate change is about contributing to environmental solutions that are economically sustainable • Climate change is all about managing the carbon and nitrogen cycles • Agriculture and forestry are based on using energy from the sun for photosynthesis to transform carbon and nitrogen into food, fiber and bio-products consumed by humans • The challenge is to learn to profitably recycle rather than extract carbon and nitrogen

4. Reduce Greenhouse gas emissions Replace Remove Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial crops & trees Agriculture and forestry have many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases... Adapt Use science, innovation & business risk management to adapt to climate change Agricultural and Forestry GHG Management

5. Replace by Agriculture Reduce by Agriculture Annual impact of mitigative strategies (relative to business-as-usual) 0 Remove for Agriculture 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 … and our strategy must be built on the fact that many Kyotos are required ...

6. Accounting for Forest Management Source Sink Debit in 2008-12 from ARD Additional credit from management Credit from management 33 Mt CO2/year 44 Mt CO2/year limit to offset cap … and that a lot of effort is still required tofully understand the role of these sectors ...

7. …because biological processes make us different from energy users Gas % of Emissions CO2 3% CH4 41% N2O 56% Our primary energy source is the sun, not fossil fuels.

8. MT CO2e Gap (6.5 Mt) Potential reductions from BAU (5 to 20 Mt) [with incentives] For the first commitment period, we know wecan contribute, agriculture with up to 30 Mt ... And Forestry with an estimated additional 20 Mt Sink

9. Farm Management Data (e.g. Census, FEMS) Development of Mitigation Scenarios IPCC Guidelines Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA) - economic component - GHG component Systematic Approach (direct and indirect emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O) Expert Opinion - F/P/T gov’t - Industry - Academics Scientific Research Changes in GHG sources and sinks Economic Impacts For agriculture we have an integratedscience-policy approach ...

10. … where we continue to build a strong scientific foundation ... • Model Farms ($ 5 M) • Scaling up initiatives ($2 M) • Biological Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Agriculture ($1 M) • Program on Energy Research ($4.2 M) • Enhancement of Greenhouse Gas Sinks on Ecosystems ($2.1 M) • Environmental indicators • Research networks : BIOCAP (gov’t, industry, NGOs, universities) ($1 M) • Climate Change Funding Initiative on Agriculture ($4 M)

11. “Situations” defined by: • Soil • Climate • Land use • Management country province “Model” SLC polygon region SOC & GHG Emissions for each “situation” … with the National Carbon and GreenhouseGas Emission Accounting and VerificationSystem (NCGAVS) as a key component ...

12. … and we are taking action directly in the agricultural sector to get started • AP2000 Mitigation Program ($21 M) • Increase farmer’s awareness of CC ($1.3 M) • Shelterbelts ($4 M) • Biofuels ($3 M) • Agriculture Policy Framework has explicit goal to reduce sector emissions of GHG

13. The Agriculture Policy Framework (APF)is all about motivating long-term change … The APF elements: Food Safety and Food Quality Environment Science and Innovation Renewal Business Risk Management International Trade & Development … and so is climate change policy

14. We need to develop a National Forest Carbon Measuring and Monitoring Framework ... • What do we have at present? • Current systems not sufficient for forest carbon monitoring and reporting purposes • What does Canada need? • Internationally accepted forest carbon monitoring systems and accounting tools to report on forest carbon stock changes • Why does Canada need these tools? • To improve UNFCCC reporting and be in compliance (ARD) with the Protocol • To claim forest management credits • To have better information and forecasting ability on sink/source status of Canada’s managed forests • To assist forest managers in evaluating impacts of management decisions on carbon stocks

15. ... that will account for all forestcarbon activities ... • Development of Forest C accounting tools that: • employ standard accounting methods for C stock change reporting • are compliant with international guidelines for accounting, transparency and verifiability • incorporate best available science and data • are consistent across a range of spatial scales • will be user-friendly and publicly available, and • whose results are consistent with national analyses

16. C Accounting Model CBM-CFS2 Harvesting Planting Disturbances Land-use change Model parameters Litterfall Decomposition Results database … based on the following elements Volume to Biomass Conversion Detailed Forest Inventory Volume / Age Curves AP2000 gets us started, but much more will be required

17. But we know we will need the toolsto incent the required change • The sectors are excited about the potential to create carbon credits using market mechanisms within a DET system • Existing and evolving programs and institutions could play valuable roles in a carbon credit trading system • Traditional tools will continue to be needed, but we need to give the credit trading system room to develop Sector roles and policy tools will be determinedas we move toward the ratification decision.

18. But 2008–2012 is only the startof an on-going world challenge... • Farmers’ control 68 Mha of Canada’s land and millions of livestock. The forest sector manages 100’s Mha. We need them to understand their impact on climate and to adapt to climate as it changes. • Industrial countries like Canada need to pave the way for action by other developed and developing countries. • We need developing countries to join the effort because their decisions will determine how much climate change affects our farm lands and forests. • These countries are our emerging international partners and our future trading partners. • It is in our self interest to act with and to cooperate with other nations.

19. Expected changes Warmer temperatures, drier or wetter conditions, more extreme events, enhanced, atmospheric CO2, will affect: resource management/conservation Doubling of CO2 (2050 under business as usual) …and we need to adapt because we can’tmove fast enough to avoid some impacts • water supply & infrastructure • financial risk management • food safety, disease management/eradication • environmental and climate change mitigation • Assess impacts & plan to manage risks. • Build knowledge base, networks & planning systems. • Assess impacts and adaptation strategies for key policiese.g. water infrastructure & drought management

20. To summarize, some of the key elements in terms of next steps Science • Reduce uncertainties • Measurement, monitoringand verification • Technology development • Understand processes of C sequestration and GHG emissions (IPCC) • Permanence • Hosting OECD carbon workshop • Climate change impactsand adaptation Policy Development • Enhance data, modeling and analysis capacity • Follow up on stakeholder consultations • Assess impacts of Domestic Emissions Trading and design workable offset market • Assess need for and impacts of Targeted Measures • Continue to work in international fora • Climate change impacts and adaptation • Land use change - interaction between agr. and forestry