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Seasonal Climate Forecast

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Seasonal Climate Forecast

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Presentation Transcript

    2. Seasonal Climate Forecast

    3. Example of climate information

    4. Scales and uncertainties

    5. Bases of Seasonal Forecast

    6. Bases of seasonal forecast – IC and BC

    7. Bases of seasonal forecast – sources of uncertainty

    8. Ensemble Technique

    9. Bases of Seasonal Forecast – sources of uncertainty

    10. Bases of Seasonal Forecast – sources of uncertainty

    11. General Circulation Models

    12. GCM

    13. GCM

    14. Statistical and dynamical downscaling

    15. Dynamical Systems for Seasonal Forecast

    16. IRI operational Seasonal Climate Forecast

    17. IRI Dynamical Climate Forecast System

    18. Post-processing of multi-ensemble multi-model

    19. ENSO Forecasts

    20. IRI Seasonal Forecasts

    21. New forecast format - probability of excedence

    22. Forecast Verification

    23. Assessing Forecast Quality

    24. Assessing Forecast Quality

    25. Probabilistic Forecast Verification method1

    26. Reliability Diagram

    27. Multimodel ensemble verification

    28. Probabilistic Forecast verification method 2

    29. ENSO Forecasts

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