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Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China

C HIN A GRO. Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China. Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adapatation of China‘s Agriculture to Globalization. CHINAGRO Training Course (II): September 23-24, 2003, Beijing Günther Fischer

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Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China

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  1. CHINAGRO Methodological Issues in Feed Balance Accounting for the Livestock Sector in China Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adapatation of China‘s Agriculture to Globalization CHINAGRO Training Course (II): September 23-24, 2003, Beijing Günther Fischer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

  2. CHINAGRO OVERVIEW • Background • Methodology - overview • Livestock types • Feed requirements • Feed sources • Feed balances • Conclusions

  3. CHINAGRO LIVESTOCK TYPES • Large animals • Cattle & Yaks • Milk cows • Buffalos • Horses • Donkeys & Mules • Camels • Sheep & Goats • Pigs • Poultry (meat) • Poultry (eggs)

  4. Livestock Numbers andRegional Distribution 1997

  5. CHINAGRO LIVESTOCK TYPES • Vary by: • Herd structure • Nutritional requirements • Input/Output relations  Express in common unit • Conversion in two steps: • Convert to Systems Livestock Unit • (SLSU = breeding female) • Convert SLSU to Reference Livestock Unit • (RSLU = animal requiring 5600 Mcal/year)

  6. CHINAGRO LIVESTOCK HERD STRUCTURE Source: Zheng et al., 1994

  7. CHINAGRO Livestock Heads converted to Reference Units (RLSU)

  8. CHINAGRO FEEDING SYSTEMS • Vary with: • Feed resources • Scale level • Input intensity • Productivity • Grazing systems • Ruminants (excl. buffalo) • Confined systems • Traditional Household • Specialized Household • Large-scale

  9. CHINAGRO Livestock By Feeding System (RSLU in 1997) RUMINANTS PIGS and POULTRY

  10. CHINAGRO FEED SOURCES • Grass and forage • Natural grassland • Improved grassland • Sown pasture • Crop residues • Crop by-products • Bran and husks • Cake and meals • Pulp, stillage, molasses • Household wastes • Primary feed commodities

  11. CHINAGRO FEED SOURCES (1) Grass and Forage Fg = Fng + Fig + Fsg where Fng = Ang • Yng• Dng• Cnu• Eng Fig = … Fg,Fng, Fig, Fsg feed energy supply (Mcal) Yng, Yig, Ysg yield (kg/ha) Ang, Aig, Asg utilizable grassland (ha) Dng, Dig, Dsg dry matter content (share) Cnu, Ciu, Csu utilization coefficient (share) Eng, Eig, Esg digestible energy content (Mcal/kg DM)

  12. CHINAGRO

  13. CHINAGRO Crop Production Systems Zones Pasture Suitability

  14. CHINAGRO Utilization rate: (share) Cnu 0.40 – 0.60 Ciu 0.70 Csu 0.75 Dry matter content: (percent) Dng 90.5 – 92.6 Dsg 89.5 – 92.8 Digestible energy: (Mcal/kg DM) Eng 1.59 – 2.53 Esg 2.26 – 2.51

  15. CHINAGRO FEED SOURCES (2) Crop residues, by-products, wastes Fr = Q • Cr • Cru • Er Fb = (Q • Cp) • Cb • Cbu • Eb Fw = Q • Cw • Cwu • Ew Fr, Fb, Fw feed energy supply (Mcal) Q production (kg DM) Cr, Cb, Cw feed factor (kg/kg primary prod.) Cru, Cbu, Cwu utilization coefficients (share) Cp processing coefficient (share) Er, Eb, Ew digestible energy content (Mcal/kg DM)

  16. By-product factor, Utilization rate, Nutrition composition Residue factor, Utilization rate, Nutrition composition CHINAGRO Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994 Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994

  17. CHINAGRO Potential Feed Supply from Pasture, Residues, By-products and Wastes (mill.Mcal)

  18. subject to: where: Eim … total feed requirement Fj … total feed supply fijm … feed use pijm … feed use ‘prior’ i … livestock type j … feed type m … feeding mode CHINAGRO Cross-Entropy Feed-Mix Estimation

  19. CHINAGRO Feed Composition of Various Livestock Systems under Different Feeding Modes(minimum, reference, maximum percentage of feed sources in total DE) Source: based on Zheng et al., 1994 G … grazing system T … traditional household feeding S … specialized household feeding L … large-scale livestock farm

  20. CHINAGRO Regional Feed Balance in 1997 (mill.Mcal)

  21. CHINAGRO Average Feed Composition of Various Livestock Systems (all feeding modes; percentage of feed sources in total DE)

  22. Feed Composition by Feeding Mode(percentage of feed sources in total DE) GRAZING CONFINED – TRADITIONAL CONFINED - SPECIALIZED CONFINED – LARGE FARM

  23. CHINAGRO Responses of temperature to increasing CO2 concentrations for various GCMs (China). Change in average temperature (deg C) Atmospheric CO2 abundance (ppm)

  24. CHINAGRO Correlations between temperature increase and precipitation change for various GCMs (China). Precipitation change (%) Change in average temperature (deg C)

  25. CLIMATEDATABASE(Stations) ELEVATION 3 7 1 4 LUTDESCRIPTION CLIMATESCENARIOS TERRAIN SOIL LAND COVER ADMINISTR. CROPCATALOG 2 CLIMATE GRIDS MAX. TEMP. 5 DP, DT, DS, DCO2, DRL MIN. TEMP. PRECIPITATION SUNSHINE THERMAL & MOISTURE PROFILE GIS 10 11 CLIMATIC REQUIREMENTS CLIMATE MATCHING RULES 12 13 BIOMASS AND YIELD 14 AGRO- CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS CHINAGRO AEZ GRID-CELL DATABASE Steps in AEZ Methodology – Part 1 6 A

  26. Length of Growing Period Reference Climate

  27. Length of Growing Period HadCM3 A2 2020s

  28. Length of Growing Period HadCM3 A2 2050s

  29. Length of Growing Period HadCM3 A2 2080s

  30. CHINAGRO Transition Matrix tabulating change in extents of LGP zones HadCM3 Scenario A2 2080s compared to Reference Climate Squ. km Percent

  31. Suitability for rain-fed pasture Reference climate HadCM3-A1FI, 2080

  32. Impact of Climate Change on Pasture Suitability in China (% change) for HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM, CGM2 and NCAR scenarios, 2080s Change in SI in grass, shrub & woodland, and sparsely vegetated land classes.

  33. CHINAGRO SUMMARY • Methodology for full livestock feed accounting at provincial / regional / national level (all major feed sources, all animal types); • Full accounting provides valuable consistency check; • Method is flexible to incorporate technical information from livestock experts as well as survey / census data; • Provides sound basis for estimating current and future feed availability and use; • Explicitly accounts for livestock structure changes and shifts in livestock management; • Provides a basis for assessing spatial livestock issues (e.g., fixed vs mobile feed resources).

  34. THANK YOU! http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC

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