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THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME). NAME: An internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR-GEWEX process study aimed at improving warm season precipitation forecasts over North America. Wayne Higgins and the NAME SWG US CLIVAR Summit August 2005

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THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

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  1. THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) NAME: An internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR-GEWEX process study aimed at improving warm season precipitation forecasts over North America. Wayne Higgins and the NAME SWG US CLIVAR Summit August 2005 NAME Homepage: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

  2. OUTLINE • NAME Program • NAME 2004 Field Campaign • What was it? • Where was it? • Who participated? • What are we learning? • Where is the data? • NAME Modeling Strategy • Climate Model Assessments • Climate Data Assimilation • Climate Model and Forecast System Development • Milestones (through 2009) • Summary

  3. NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) HYPOTHESIS: The NAMS provides a physical basis for determining the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation over the region. • OBJECTIVES: • Better understanding and • simulation of: • warm season convective • processes in complex terrain • (TIER I); • intraseasonal variability of • the monsoon (TIER II); • response to oceanic and • continental boundary • conditions (TIER III); • monsoon evolution and • variability (TIER I, II, III). Low-level (925 mb) winds and observed precipitation YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Planning --------------| Preparations ---------------| Data Collection - - - - - - --------| Principal Research ---------------------------------| Data Management -----------------------------------------|

  4. COORDINATION OF MODELING AND FIELD ACTIVITIES • One of the unique features of the NAME program is the collaboration between the observational and modeling communities. • NAME modeling activities, which have been underway for several years, helped to motivate the enhanced observations gathered during NAME 2004. • Conversely, the NAME 2004 dataset has been leveraged to improve our ability to understand, simulate and ultimately predict monsoon precipitation months to seasons in advance. • A driving hypothesis of NAME is that we must develop proper simulations of relatively small (spatial and temporal) scale climatic variability, especially the diurnal cycle, in the core monsoon region of northwestern Mexico.

  5. WHAT WAS THE NAME 2004 FIELD CAMPAIGN? • The NAME 2004 Field Campaign was an unprecedented opportunity to gather extensive atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface observations in the core region of the North American Monsoon over NW Mexico, SW United States, and adjacent oceanic areas.

  6. WHO WAS INVOLVED IN NAME 2004? • The NAME 04 Field Campaign involved researchers from more than 30 • universities, government laboratories and federal agencies in 4 countries • (United States, Mexico, Belize, Costa Rica). • The NAME Forecast Operations Centers (Tucson, AZ; Mazatlan, MX), • involved more than 40 forecasters (NWS, USAF, SMN, private, and retired), • at least 15 WFO’s and 4 NCEP Centers (CPC, HPC, SPS, TPC). • The NAME Science Working Group (responsible for implementing NAME • science) involves 19 senior scientists from the US, Mexico and Central America • The NAME Project Office (UCAR/JOSS, Boulder, CO) provided logistical, technical and administrative support services.

  7. US AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN NAME 2004 • NOAA OGP Field Observations (~$2.5M) + Aircraft and Ship; Modeling and Diagnostic Studies (~$1M/yr) • NOAA NWS Radiosonde Observations (~250K) • NASA / THP and USDA / ARS Soil Moisture Experiment - SMEX04 (~$1M) + Aircraft • NSF GEO/ATM, Hydro; NCAR/ATD; NOAA/ ETL & AL Windprofiler and Radar Network (~$1.5M)

  8. PARTICIPATING AGENCIES AND INSTITUTES

  9. NAME 2004 INSTRUMENT PLATFORMS • The NAME 2004 Field Campaign gathered data from • more than 20 different types of instrument platforms, including: • Surface Met Stations (84 in Mexico) • Radars (SMN, NCAR S-POL) • Wind Profilers (ISS’s) • Radiosondes / PIBALS • Raingauge Networks (Event Logging; Cooperative) • Aircraft (NOAA P-3) • Research Vessels (Altair and CICESE) • Satellite Data (JCSDA) • Soil Moisture Sensors & Remote Sensing • GPS Precipitable Water

  10. NAME 2004 SCIENCE QUESTIONS • How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of California / west slopes of the • Sierra Madre Occidental related to the diurnal cycle of moisture and convection? • (low-level circulation) • 2. What is the relationship between moisture transport and rainfall variability • (e.g. forcing of surge events; onset of monsoon details)? • (moisture transport and budget) • 3. What is the typical life cycle of diurnal convective rainfall? Where along the western slope • of the SMO is convective development preferred? • (diurnal cycle) • These form a basis for the Climate Issues • addressed by NAME modeling activities • focused on seasonal-to-interannual prediction

  11. TIMELINES FOR NAME04 FACILITIES

  12. POST NAME2004 ACTIVITIES • Data collection and quality control • Data analysis, diagnostic and data impact studies • Modeling and prediction studies • Transition to Operations (NOAA Climate Test Bed) • NAME Education Module • NAME Legacy • Enhanced Observations (e.g. raingauge networks) • International Coordination between NWS and SMN • Products and Applications • Publications • 2 BAMS Articles; • Special Issue of Journal of Climate (25 Articles)

  13. NAME STRATEGY TO IMPROVE CLIMATE FORECASTS • The NAME strategy to improve warm season precipitation forecasts is designed to maximize the linkage between the modeling, data assimilation and field components of the NAME program. • Details of the modeling strategy are found in a white paperavailable on the NAME webpage. The strategy also discusses the modeling issues relevant to the NAMS. NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Strategic Overview NAME Science Working Group* June 2002 http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

  14. ELEMENTS OF NAME MODELING STRATEGY • Climate Model Assessments • NAMAP: Simulations of 1990 monsoon • NAMAP2: “ of 2004 monsoon • Diurnal Cycle Experiments (NASA/GFDL/NCEP) • Routine assessments of the NCEP CFS/GFS • Climate Data Assimilation • NA Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) • NAME 2004 data impact • Climate Model and Forecast System Development • NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team • NAME End-to-End Forecast System • Dynamical seasonal prediction of warm season precipitation with CFS • Applications (Drought monitoring and prediction; Hydrometeorological) • Links to NOAA Climate Test Bed

  15. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Test Bed NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Research & Development Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

  16. NAME MILESTONES • FY04 – Implement NAME 2004 Field Experiment. • FY05 - Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on operational analyses. • FY06 - Assess global and regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2). • FY07 - Evaluate impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (NAME CPT). • FY08 - Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability. • FY08 – Quantify the relative influence of oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon (NAME Tier 3) • FY09 - Implement recommended changes to operational climate prediction systems to improve the skill of warm season precipitation forecasts (End-to-End Forecast System).

  17. NAME PUBLICATIONS • Journal • Gutzler, D. S, H.-K. Kim, R. W. Higgins, et al., 2004: The North American Monsoon Model Assessment Project (NAMAP): Integrating numerical modeling into a field-based process study. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc (In Press) • Higgins, R. W., and the NAME SWG, 2003: Progress in Pan American CLIVAR • Research: The North American Monsoon System. Atmosfera, 16, 29-65. • Higgins, R. W. and the NAME SWG, 2005: The NAME 2004 Field campaign and Modeling Strategy. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc (Submitted) • -Many others • Special Issue of Journal of Climate • -encouraged by NOAA CPPA program • - 30 papers on NAME 04 and NAME modeling & prediction • - 2006 timeframe

  18. SUMMARY • NAME 2004 was a major field campaign scheduled during JJAS 2004, with 10 IOP’s during the period. • NAME 04 data is available on the JOSS/NAME field catalog: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/catalog/ • NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation studies will continue for the next several years and will motivate needs for sustained observations and for additional process studies. • NAME will deliver: • Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North American monsoon (includes sustained observations); • More comprehensive understanding of North American summer climate variability and predictability; • Strengthened scientific collaboration across Pan-America; • Measurably improved climate models that predict North American summer precipitation months to seasons in advance.

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