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Electoral Systems & N of Parties

Electoral Systems & N of Parties. Moser. Basis. Duverger’s hypothesis on single-member plurality elections Will it hold true in post-communism? Russ, UK, Poland show that plurality can produce fragmented party systems over time Poland & Hungary conform: Russ & UK not. Thesis.

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Electoral Systems & N of Parties

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  1. Electoral Systems & N of Parties Moser

  2. Basis • Duverger’s hypothesis on single-member plurality elections • Will it hold true in post-communism? • Russ, UK, Poland show that plurality can produce fragmented party systems • over time Poland & Hungary conform: Russ & UK not

  3. Thesis • Electoral system effect mitigated by institutionalization • Explains failure of SMD systems to have expected effects • Weak insts of post-comm a unique chance to test strategic voting

  4. Duverger modified • District magnitude found to be decisive • Cox argues SMP may fail to reduce vote for minor parties IF • voters are not short term instrumental • info not available on voter intentions • belief that a candidate will win • many voters who are indifferent on 2nd & lower choices

  5. Mixed systems • Modelled after the German • Curbs proliferation? • But Russia & Coratia does not compensate parties • vote in direct and PR systems calculated separately • No post-comm state uses only SMP

  6. Findings • Average n. effective parties = 7.7 • 2x average for consolidated democracies using PR • AV level of disproportionality 11.31 • More than 2x that for PR systems in consolidated • And higher than av of majoritarian systems

  7. Voters • Rose found independent voters in Russia 78% cf • 13% in US and 8% in GB • N parties & level disprop underestimated by actual vote shares because voters and elites make strategic decisions favouring larger parties • should increase over time

  8. Evidence? • Poland shows high adaptation • 1997 consolidated in electoral blocs • so fewer small parties left without rep • Russ & Lith show opposite trend • N parties in PR increased from 1 to 2 election • Explanation: institutionalization

  9. Corroboration • Bucking trend in majoritarian system • UK: only 11% candidates nominated by parties • RUSS: Non-partisan candidates won 48% vote 1993 and 36% in 1995 • 52% winners in 1993 were independents • 34% winners in 1995 were independents

  10. Conclusion • With extreme party underdevelopment • Electoral system promoting party labels (PR) will constrain n parties better than SMP if legal threshold is used

  11. Pres election 26/3/2000 • Putin sscores 52.5% • Zhuganov 29.4% • Turnout 68.8%

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