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Euro Area

The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. High-income CPI in 3% range – fastest since early 1990s Median (aggregate), HICP (EA) Headline CPI (US) ch% year on year. United States. Euro Area.

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Euro Area

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJune 2008The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. High-income CPI in 3% range– fastest since early 1990s Median (aggregate), HICP (EA) Headline CPI (US) ch% year on year United States Euro Area Source: Thomson/Datastream DECPG calculations

  3. EM spreads down 75 basis points since recent peaks at mid-March Stripped spreads, basis points LAC MSCI ECA EAP Source: JPMorgan-Chase.

  4. Industrial countries

  5. U.S. households spend rebates in May Retail sales, ch% saar and 3mma y/y Retail sales, saar Retail sales, year-on-year Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  6. Slackening labor markets could dim consumer outlays in coming monthschange in employment 3mma [L], unemployment claims 4wma [R] unemployment claims [right] employment [left] Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

  7. Fed likely to halt rate reductions at 2% as CPI pressures mount Fed funds target rate Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  8. Japan first-quarter GDP revised up on stronger investmentgrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net X Invest PCE Gvt dStok Source: Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.

  9. Japan’s orders, exports and production falter in April orders and export volumes [R], IP mfgr [L] ch% 3mma y/y Orders [R] Exports [R] Production [L] Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream.

  10. Japan’s inflation increasing on fuel prices and weaker yen Tokyo CPI, PPI- and Import price indexes, ch% 3mma y/y import price [right] PPI [left] CPI [left] Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

  11. European surveys broadly lowerIFO ‘expect’, Banc d’France [left], EEC consumer sentiment [right] Banc d’France [left] IFO expectations [left] EEC consumer [right] Source: IFO, BdF and EEC through Thomson/Datastream.

  12. German April factory orders plummet-- export orders down 14% (saar)factory orders, domestic, overseas, ch% saar Export orders Domestic orders Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.

  13. HICP breaches 16-year highs pushed by energy costs HICP [left]; HICP energy [right], ch% year on year HICP Energy [R] HICP [L] Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.

  14. Industrial production

  15. Developing countries continue to outperform IP in high-income countriesindustrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High Income Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  16. Production in ECA holding up, Latin America shows signs of weaknessindustrial production, ch% (q/q saar) Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Carribean Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  17. IP in China showing moderation, other East Asia in sharp decline industrial production ch% (q/q saar) China Other East Asia Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  18. International trade

  19. Oil imports as a share of GDP up sharply oil imports as a share of GP (%) Forecast,assuming price of oil averages $110/bbl in 2008 USA Japan European Union Source: UN Comtrade, National Sources.

  20. U.S. and German capital goods exports regaining momentum exports of capital goods in nominal LCU, ch% (3mma y/y) USA Japan Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations.

  21. U.S. current account deficit widens on oil during first quarter non-oil and oil balances ($bn) [L] and current account as %GDP [R] non-oil balance oil balance CAB/GDP [R] Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  22. Oil prices

  23. Oil prices higher on supply fears $/bbl mb/d OPEC-11 Production (x Angola) [R] Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fall on higher refinery runs M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. DOE and DECPG Commodities Group.

  25. OPEC Other FSU Non-OPEC supply growth slumps kb/d Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Corn and soybean prices rise on threats of flooding c/bushel c/bushel Soybeans Corn Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Zinc prices plunge on rebound in mine supply $/ton ‘000 tons Zinc price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Freight rates ease Baltic dry freight index Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. Bank lending falls again in May Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. EM equities suffer in 2008 returns over 2008 to date (%) Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.

  33. EM bond spreads have remained stable of late high-yield OECD bond spead and EMBIG EM spread, basis points HY-OECD EM spread Source: Datastream and DECPG calculations.

  34. Currencies

  35. Dollar moves up on the yen... in trading range on euro $1.54 to $1.58 USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] yen/USD USD/Euro (inverse) Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. A look at yen cross rates:are carry trades unwinding? Yen/LCU: change 2008 ytd. vs full year 2007 percent Appreciation of Local Currency 2007 2008 Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  37. Libor differentials stabilize: U.S. likely on hold, ECB to raise 25 bp LIBOR-6 months and EURIBOR 6-months, percent EURIBOR USD LIBOR differential: US less euro rates Source: Datastream and DECPG calculations.

  38. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJune 2008The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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