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Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department

The current economic Situation of the German metal and electrical industry. Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department. GESAMTMETALL the employers’ association of the German metal and electrical industry. Branches of the M+E Industry. Automotive industry Mechanical engineering

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Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department

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  1. The current economic Situation of the German metal and electrical industry Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department GESAMTMETALL the employers’ association of the German metal and electrical industry

  2. Branches of the M+E Industry • Automotive industry • Mechanical engineering • Electrical engineering • Fabricated metal goods industry • Foundries • Communication equipment • Medical, precision and optical instruments • Steel working, steel rolling • Non-ferrous metalworking industries • Steel and light metal construction • Shipbuilding and marine engineering • Drawing and cold rolling mills • Aerospace equipment, manufacturing and repair

  3. Incoming orders (by origin) Upwards again quarterly figures,seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price Index value 2005 = 100, July 2009 compared to July 2008 Abroad: -27,8 % Domestic: -13,9 % Total: -21,5 % July Domestic Total Abroad 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Federal Statistical Office.

  4. Incoming orders by branches Bottom of the crisis Index value 2005 = 100, quarterly figures, seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price Mechanical Engineering July 2009 compared to July 2008 Fabricated Metal Goods: - 28,5% Electrical Engineering: - 16,6% Mechanical Engineering: - 40,7% Automotive Industry: - 8,1% Fabricated Metal Goods Automotive Industry July/June 2009 compared to April/May 2009 seasonally adjusted June/July Fabricated Metal Goods: +2,4% Electrical Engineering: +5,2% Mechanical Engineering: +9,2% Automotive Industry: +11,3% Electrical Engineering 1.Q. April/May 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Federal Statistical Office.

  5. Production Still on the bottom Quarterly figures, seasonally adjustedIndex value 2005 = 100 July 2009 compared to July 2008 -25.7 percent July 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Federal Statistical Office.

  6. Production by branches Fall stopped Quarterly figures, seasonally adjustedIndex value 2005 = 100 Electrical Engineering July 2009 compared to July 2008 Fabricated Metal Goods: -33,5% Electrical Engineering: -24,8% Mechanical Engineering: -31,5% Automotive Industry: -21,5% Fabricated Metal Goods AutomotiveIndustry June/July April/May Mechanical Engineering 1.Vj. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Federal Statistical Office.

  7. Capacity Utilisation As low as never before Average degree of capacity utilisation in percent of their full use of capacity Normal use of capacity Jan. 76,2 July 69,3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ifo Business Survey.

  8. Employment Reduction Seasonally adjustedMeasured in thousands of employees Increase in Employment from April 2006 to September 2008:+242.000 Reduction since October 2008:-154.000 July 3.474 July 2009 compared to July 2008 -4.4 percent 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Gesamtmetall Calculations; *2009 prelimenary figures.

  9. Labour Market of M+E Occupations The gap opened again Seasonally adjustedMeasured in thousands of people Unemployed People August vacant positions* (reported and not reported) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 *) according to FAL researches every second vacant position isn‘t reported to FEA Sources: Federal Employment Agency (FEA), Gesamtmetall calculations.

  10. Job security Companies stick to permanent staff Index value 2. Quarter 2008 = 100 seasonally adjusted Employees Production Expected employment at a normal level of productivity Incoming Orders 2. Q. July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Gesamtmetall Calculations.

  11. Short-time work in the M+E Industry Short-time work is exploding – Wave of announcements ebbs away Number of people covered by announcements 974.500 896.400 thousand 967.200 Number of Short-time worker 726.200 648.700 480.224 363.873 288.200 225.263 121.200 142.799 71.200 82.045 73.539 40.721 2008 2009 Sources: Federal Statistical Office

  12. Employer Employee What does the employer have to pay? Full time work 100 % Short-time work 100 % Short-time work + further training only up to 7th month 0 € 0 € net pay SC net pay SC net pay SC SC = Contributions to Social Security Insurance

  13. Example: 50 % Short-time work Short-time work with 50 % reduction of working time ES* cancellednet pay 67 % STWA Employeespay netpay netpay Federal Employment Agency Employer Employer subsidy by CA(*not in all regions) STWA = Short-time working allowance

  14. Job security Declining productivity – rising costs Unit labour cost Production per hour Annual percentage change 2008 2009 2007 Source: Federal Statistical Office.

  15. Business Situation Bottom of the crisis Balance values, seasonally adjusted May Assessment of the present state of business The balance values of the current business situation are the differences of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor” Sep. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ifo Business Survey.

  16. Business Expectations Positive again Balance values, seasonally adjusted Sep. Business outlook for the coming half-year The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable” 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ifo Business Survey.

  17. Business Expectations Obviously less Sceptical Balance values Expected Development of Exportsfor the next 3 Months The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “expected to rise” and “expected to decline” Expected Development of Productionfor the next 3 Months Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. 2009 2008 Source: ifo Business Survey

  18. Business Expectations Further Layoffs in Sight Balance values Expected Development of Employmentfor the next 3 Months The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “expected to rise” and “expected to decline” Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. 2009 2008 Source: ifo Business Survey

  19. Consumer Prices Close to Stability quarterly figures annual percentage change forecasts July -0,5 Aug. 0,0 2009 2008 2010 Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Consensus Forecasts, September 2009

  20. Forecasts 2010 Out of the Crises? annual percentage changes source: IW Köln, 21.9.2009

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