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Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas

Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas. Presentation to the Poverty Reduction Network Andrew Morrison Inter-American Development Bank November 11, 2002. Are there any good shorthand measures of violence?. Homicides? Intra-family violence?. Homicide rates by world region, 2000.

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Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas

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  1. Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas Presentation to the Poverty Reduction Network Andrew Morrison Inter-American Development Bank November 11, 2002

  2. Are there any good shorthand measures of violence? • Homicides? • Intra-family violence?

  3. Homicide rates by world region, 2000 Source: WHO, 2002. World Report on Violence

  4. WORLD HOMICIDE RATE (per 100,000 persons) 10 8.86 9 8 7 6.35 5.93 5.82 6 5.47 5 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 Source: M. Buvinic & A. Morrison, 2000. “Living in a Violent World”, Foreign Policy #118.

  5. Low, medium and high violence countries: mid 1990s Source: WHO. 2002. World Report on Violence

  6. PREVALENCE OF DOMESTIC VIOLENCE IN LATIN AMERICA Percentage of women victimized by physical violence, 1996-1997 Chile Nicaragua Paraguay Colombia Perú Note: various sources.

  7. Inequality matters World Bank study (Fajnzylber, Lederman and Loayza) • 34 countries, 1970-1994, yearly data. • Identify determinants of homicide and robbery rates • Inequality matters: • increase in Gini leads to increase in both homicide rate and robbery rates; • larger increase in long run because of inertia • Level of GDP per capita is not statistically significant, but growth rate is  5% drop in GDP increases robbery rate by 50%

  8. And poverty? • Not explicitly included in World Bank study • Exploratory econometric analysis by Londoño y Guerrero on determinants of homicide rates for 17 countries, 1970-1995 • poverty does matter; so does income distribution • confirmed for recent analysis of “delitos contra el patrimonio económico” in Colombia (Yepes Delgado, 2000)

  9. ECONOMIC COSTS OF VIOLENCE IN SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES* * % of GDP Source: Juan Luis Londoño. 1998. “Epidemiología económica de la violencia urbana”

  10. 61% less Mean monthly earnings in Santiago, 1997 US$ 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 With abuse Without abuse Earnings impact of severe physical violence against women

  11. Elements of the IDB’s response • Not all violence is the same • Undertake serious situational diagnostic • Focus on risk factors • Emphasize prevention, but recognize that control is essential • Evaluate, evaluate, evaluate • Loan projects approved to-date: Colombia, El Salvador, Jamaica, Uruguay Many intra-family violence TCs

  12. SERIOUS CRIMES AVOIDED PER MILLION DOLLARS SPENT, CALIFORNIA (1998) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Home visits Family support Graduation incentives Intensive supervision Three strikes law Source: Greenwood, Peter. 1998.

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