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climate change updated Corinne Le Qu éré Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy

climate change updated Corinne Le Qu éré Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy University of East Anglia. temperature measurements on land. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/landstations/ Brohan et al. J. Geophys Res. (2006). temperature measurements in the sea.

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climate change updated Corinne Le Qu éré Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy

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  1. climate change updated Corinne Le Quéré Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy University of East Anglia

  2. temperature measurements on land http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/landstations/ Brohan et al. J. Geophys Res. (2006)

  3. temperature measurements in the sea earthobservatory.nasa.gov Photo: Xiaojun Yuan LDEO.columbia.edu Kent et al. (2010) Wires of Climate Change

  4. warming of global air temperature +0.4 temperature anomaly (°C) -0.4 1900 1950 2000 Time (y) data source: NASA-GISS, reference period 1951-1980

  5. melting of glaciers and ice caps Qori Kalis, Peru 1978, 2002

  6. melting of glaciers and ice caps Kilimanjaro 1993, 2000

  7. melting of glaciers and ice caps Trift, Suisse 1948, 2002, 2006

  8. data source: Dyurgerov and Meier 2005, figure from Rober A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art project

  9. melting of the Arctic sea ice Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009

  10. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal temperature sea level Arctic Sept ice extent 1900 2000 Time (y) adapted from IPCC 2007, data from NASA GISS, NSIDC, Church and White, Colorado University

  11. But is it caused by human activities? • yes! • we understand the processes • global warming has fingerprints John Tyndall’s laboratory setup 1859

  12. Fingerprints for climate change: surface warming observed volcanoes & sun only IPCC 2007 Fig 9.5

  13. Fingerprints for climate change: surface warming greenhouse gases, volcanoes & sun observed volcanoes & sun only IPCC 2007 Fig 9.5

  14. But is it caused by human activities? • yes! • we understand the processes • global warming has fingerprints • it is above the background natural variability (caveat) Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009, from Mann et al. 2008

  15. But is it caused by human activities? • yes! • we understand the processes • global warming has fingerprints • it is above the background natural variability (caveat) • there are no other reasonable explanations If it looks like a dog, and it barks like a dog, it is a dog.

  16. So what’s next? (~4.5°C) my best guess (~3°C) today (~2.5°C) (~2°C)

  17. So what’s next? (~4.5°C) year of your retirement year of my retirement (~3°C) today (~2.5°C) (~2°C)

  18. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/mapping-climate-impactshttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/mapping-climate-impacts

  19. melting of the ice (and other unknowns)

  20. (billion) * world population time (y) projections: Lutz et al. IIASA 2007

  21. (billion) * world population time (y) projections: Lutz et al. IIASA 2007

  22. Oxford Street, London 1910 1890 1950 2012 http://www.art247.com/Tshirt/15568 http://www.virtual-london.com/oxford-circus-and-piccadilly-circus http://theedwardians.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/view-down-oxford-street-london-c1890.html

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