The Cold War: East versus West

The Cold War: East versus West Lec 14: Thursday, 1 April 2010J A Morrison Berlin Wall, 1977

(Alternative Lecture Cover Slide)

Plan for the Cold War • Today: East versus West • Origins of the CW • Two Perspectives: East & West • Next Time: How did the Cold War play out? • Macro perspective on CW history • The Role of Nukes • End of the CW and Beyond

Lec 14: Cold War – East vs West • Prewar Relations • Wartime Relations • The Soviet Perspective • The Western Perspective

I. PREWAR RELATIONS • The Russian Revolution • The Revolution’s Foreign Policy Implications • Visions of Communist Revolution

Relations between “East” and “West” shifted decidedly in 1917.

This shift was inspired largely by the revolutionary writings and efforts of Vladimir Lenin. Vladimir Lenin (1870-1924)

In March 1917, domestic social & economic tension and disaffection with war policy sparked an uprising that forced Tsar Nicholas II to abdicate power.

That October, the Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin instigated another revolution.

While Lenin obtained the reins of power, conservative elements organized themselves as a resistant “White Army.”Despite the ensuing civil war (1917-1920) and continued resistance (1920-1923), the Bolsheviks retained power.

This communist revolution had 2 considerable implications for the West…

First, the revolution and civil war were fought largely about Russia’s involvement in WWI.The “Reds” wanted to sue for peace immediately.The “Whites” wanted a peace on favorable terms.

To keep the Axis stretched between two fronts, the western Allies supported the nationalist Whites in Russia.After the October Revolution, however, the Russians were no longer a factor in the war.

Second, the general foreign policy stance of the new USSR (created 1922 and expanded in 1924) was rather unclear.

Simply put, were the principles of the Russian Revolution an “armed doctrine”?Would the Soviets attempt to undermine political establishments abroad?

Western leaders had real questions on how the USSR would organize its relations abroad.

This ambiguity followed partly from the difficulty of applying communist principles to the twentieth century international system…

Visions of Communist Revolution • Marx & Engels: Worldwide Revolution • Vladimir Lenin: Revolution one at a Time • Joseph Stalin: “Socialism in One Country”? • Leon Trotsky: Permanent Revolution

Marx and Engels had predicted more than they preached revolution. Karl Marx (1818-1883) Friedrich Engels (1820-1895)

For them, worldwide communist revolution was the inevitable result of the march of history. Globalization would unite the workers of the world, allowing them to dissolve nation-states.

All the revolution needed to do was to ratify these largely evolutionary developments.

Lenin revised this, insisting that imperialism allowed the capitalists to subordinate impoverished states and stave off worldwide revolution.

Lenin concluded that revolution could and should begin within a single country.

The crucial question, from an IP perspective, is: will that communist state attempt to spread its revolution abroad?Is communism an “armed doctrine”?

Lenin was inconsistent on this point but generally seems to have remained determined to fomenting revolutions abroad.

Joseph Stalin was more “conservative.” Joseph Stalin (1878-1953)

Focused on unifying the Soviet empire, Stalin adopted the theory of “Socialism in One Country” in the mid-1920s.

Another leader in the revolution, however, Leon Trotsky, stridently adhered to the principle of spreading the revolution abroad. Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

Stalin subsequently exiled Trotsky; but Stalin did not officially dissolve the Comintern until 1943.

In the meantime, this left western powers fearful that the Comintern continued to work despite Stalin’s official stance.

And that’s the story of the Russian Revolution.

Initially, Germany and the USSR signed the Molotov–Ribbentrop (Non-aggression) Pact. (24 Aug 1939)

In June 1941, however, Germany did a volte-face, attacking the USSR early on the 22nd. Battle of Stalingrad (1942-1943)

Key Dates from the War • 22 Jun 1941: Hitler attacks the USSR • Dec 1941: High-water mark—German troops can see the Kremlin • Dec 1941: US enters war • 17 Jul 1942 – 2 Feb 1943: Battle of Stalingrad • 19 Aug 1942: Abortive British landing at Dieppe • 6 Jun 1944: US lands in Normandy • Sep 1944: Operation Market Garden • May 1945: Soviets take Berlin

Beginning in Nov 1943, the “big three” (Roosevelt, Churchill, & Stalin) met in a series of conferences to coordinate war plans and negotiate postwar outcomes.

Big Three Wartime Conferences • Tehran (Nov – Dec 1943) • Yalta (Feb 1945) • Potsdam (Jul – Aug 1945) Yalta Conference, 1945

Concerns for the Big Three USSR US & UK Support against Japan Democratic elections United Nations • UK and US must open robust western front • Control over captured territories • Satellite countries (e.g. Poland) as buffer • Shared Concerns • Unconditional German surrender • Nazi war criminals • Partition of Germany

To understand the Soviet perspective, we need to get a sharper perspective on the body counts.

50, 000, 000. (Remember this number?)

WWII Death Toll 20,000,000 9,900,000 6,500,000 2,350,000 600,000 500,000 350,000 274,000 J. M. Winter. “Demography of the War.”The Oxford Companion to World War II. Ed. I. C. B. Dear and M. R. D. Foot. Oxford University Press, 2001.

Casualties from World War II Total Deaths: Civilian + Military J. M. Winter. “Demography of the War.”The Oxford Companion to World War II. Ed. I. C. B. Dear and M. R. D. Foot. Oxford University Press, 2001.

Percent of Population Lost in WWII Based on rough estimates of 1939 population levels.

While estimates vary, one thing is certain…the Soviet Union suffered disproportionately in the Second World War.

The USSR suffered 40% of the total casualties.That is thirty-threetimes the number of casualties in the UK and US (combined).

The US lost 247,000 men and women in the entire war.The USSR lost 150,000 men in the first week of fighting .The USSR lost 200,000 men in the final assault on Berlin.

The Cold War: East versus West