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Neil Taylor 1 , Dave Sills 2 , John Hanesiak 3 , Jason Milbrandt 4

UNSTABLE The UN derstanding S evere T hunderstorms and A lberta B oundary L ayers E xperiment. Neil Taylor 1 , Dave Sills 2 , John Hanesiak 3 , Jason Milbrandt 4 1 Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada (EC) 2 Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, EC

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Neil Taylor 1 , Dave Sills 2 , John Hanesiak 3 , Jason Milbrandt 4

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  1. 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  2. UNSTABLEThe UNderstanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment Neil Taylor1, Dave Sills2, John Hanesiak3, Jason Milbrandt4 1 Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada (EC) 2 Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, EC 3 Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba 4 NWP Research Section, EC Project Overview First UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April, 2007

  3. Outline • Overview of UNSTABLE based on draft Science Plan • Rationale • Goals and Deliverables • Introduce Science Questions • Experimental Design • Budget Requirements • Timeline / Milestones 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  4. Alberta Foothills experience more lightning days than anywhere else on the Canadian Prairies Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  5. Edmonton – Calgary corridor one of most densely populated regions in Canada and contains Canada’s 3rd (YYC) and 7th (YEG) busiest airports Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  6. Edmonton – Calgary corridor among fastest growing regions in Canada Rationale:Socio-economic Impacts 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  7. Rationale:Socio-economic Impacts • Frequent and Severe Thunderstorms + People + More People + Busy Airports = Potential Human and Economic Loss • Since 1980 > $2B and > 40 lives lost in AB due to severe thunderstorms • Improved understanding of processes leading to severe storms  better warnings  mitigate impacts of severe weather on Canadians 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  8. Rationale: Severe Wx Challenges Forecasters face uncertainty with respect to: • ABL structure and evolution (especially vertical water vapour profiles in ABL) • Role and importance of mesoscale boundaries / circulations in foothills • Conceptual models for CI • Land surface – ABL interactions (sensible / latent heat fluxes) in foothills and upstream Compounded by: • Inadequate observation network to resolve the above • NWP performance with respect to above 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  9. Rationale: EC Results Management Framework • All of EC structured according to Outcome Project Plans (OPPs) – everything we do has an associated OPP • UNSTABLE addresses 10 OPPs related to: • Monitoring atmospheric conditions • Weather prediction • Understanding, detection, and prediction of severe and high-impact weather • Understanding the water cycle • Improved weather warnings, forecasts, and warning preparedness • Aviation weather services 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  10. UNSTABLE Goals • To improve understanding of atmospheric processes (especially in ABL) prior to and during CI and severe thunderstorm development • To improve accuracy and lead time for severe thunderstorm watches and warnings • To assess utility of GEM-LAM-2.5 to resolve physical processes over AB Foothills and ability to provide useful guidance for CI and severe thunderstorm forecasts • To refine existing conceptual models describing CI and severe thunderstorm development over AB and the Western Prairies 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  11. UNSTABLE Deliverables • Unique and high-resolution dataset of measurements from various platforms including surface, upper-air, and vertical profiles of atmospheric characteristics • Peer-reviewed articles, presentations / posters at conferences and workshops • Presentations / reference material targeting forecasters at SPCs with operational application • Through RSD direct knowledge transfer to operational meteorologists in real time prior to and during high-impact weather events 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  12. UNSTABLE Science Questions ABL Processes (Taylor/Sills) 1. What are the contributions of ABL processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills? Land Surface – ABL Interactions (Hanesiak) 2. What are the contributions of surface processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills? Numerical Weather Prediction (Milbrandt) 3. To what extent can high-resolution NWP models contribute to forecasting the initiation and development of severe thunderstorms originating in the Alberta Foothills? 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  13. Experimental Design: Domain • Study area designed to include existing SFC and radar stations given climatological CI and thunderstorm activity • Primary domain defined by supplementary mesonet and FCA stations – main focus for mobile measurements • Secondary domain to include FCA and other stations – still deploy mobile measurements for interesting cases 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  14. 19 Station Configuration Supplemental Instrumentation Fixed • Mesonet stations (10-20) • 2 radiosonde • Tethersonde • 2 WV radiometers • Profiling radiometer (H2O profile) • GPS PW sensors • Eddy Correlation Flux Tower(s)? • Additional Profiling Radiometer (T, RH)? Mobile • AMMOS / Strong Mobile (T, P, RH) • MARS (PW, SFC wx, profile – wind, T, RH) • 3 radiosondes • Aircraft • Photography Locations of fixed radiometers, GPS sensors, tethersonde to be determined 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  15. Experimental Design: Duration and IOP UNSTABLE Study Period • 1 June to 31 August • Fixed mesonet stations to be deployed prior to June 1st 2008 • Mobile instrumentation / communications tests in 15 June to 31 June window Intensive Observation Period • Tentatively 9 July to 31 July (23 days) contingent on field participation, expendables,… • UNSTABLE Field Plan to be developed this fall / winter 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  16. Budgeting Requirements • EC UNSTABLE contributions thus far exceed $50K (not including ATMOS, AMMOS, tethersonde,…) 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  17. Timeline and Milestones Funding Requests 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  18. Principal Investigators Neil Taylor, HAL, EC Science Question 1 Co-Lead, Project Manager Dave Sills, CPSWRS, EC Science Question 1 Co-Lead John Hanesiak, CEOS, U of Manitoba Science Question 2 Lead Jason Milbrandt, RPN, EC Science Question 3 Lead Pat McCarthy, PASPC, EC PASPC Severe Weather Program Supervisor Geoff Strong, Adjunct Professor, U of Alberta 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  19. Summary • Planning continues for the UNSTABLE field campaign in 2008 • science questions and planning document have been drafted • This workshop an opportunity to refine the science plan (science questions, instrumentation and deployment strategies, etc.) – soliciting input from this group to make it better • Final version to be submitted for funding within EC and externally for NSERC, other sources • Still need to confirm some participation / collaboration • Instrumentation • Field participants • Funding • Data analysis / QC champions • Research aircraft requires significant funding • Logistics for IOP to be developed in field plan this fall / winter 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

  20. 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007

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