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Bringing the Private Cloud to the Data Center

Bringing the Private Cloud to the Data Center. Matt Eastwood Group Vice President Enterprise Platforms Research. September 2010. IT in the Cloud is a Journey…. The Market Has Been Cloud Washed… What’s Next?. Enjoy the Ride. Cloud Computing Defined.

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Bringing the Private Cloud to the Data Center

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  1. Bringing the Private Cloud to the Data Center Matt Eastwood Group Vice President Enterprise Platforms Research September 2010

  2. IT in the Cloud is a Journey… The Market Has Been Cloud Washed… What’s Next? Enjoy the Ride

  3. Cloud Computing Defined • Cloud Computing – consumer and business products, services and solutions delivered in real-time over the Internet including: • Standard shared service (built for a market, not a single customer) • Solution-packaged(“turnkey” integrating appropriate resources) • Self-service • Elastic scaling(dynamic and fine-grained) • Service Metering (use-based pricing) • Ubiquitous Network Access (accessible via the Internet) • Browser Based(standard UI technologies) • Published API (common Internet APIs) Deployment Models Public: Open to a largely unrestricted universe of potential users; designed for a market, not a single enterprise Private: Designed for, and access restricted to, a single enterprise (or extended enterprise); an internal shared resource, not a commercial offering; IT Org is the “vendor” of the shared/std service to its users

  4. Cloud Adoption: Evolutionary vs. Revolutionary Traditional Datacenter Private Cloud Public Cloud xSPs Dynamic IT Elastic Scaling New Migration ‘Custom’ New ‘Bursting’ Existing A Look Back to 2005 Public Cloud Private Cloud Dynamic IT xSPs

  5. Agenda Market Trends Attitudes Towards 'The Cloud' Cloud and Convergence Essential Guidance

  6. A more balanced view of end-user business goals is returning to market With virtualization, focus has been on cutting costs Customers are again beginning to look for additional business benefits from IT Technology will clearly play an important role in future business initiatives The “New Normal”Shifting Business Goals Impact Technology Goals Q. Prioritize the following business goals as they relate to your organization by allocating 100 points among them. NC +4 +3 +6 +3 -16 Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Surveys

  7. Worldwide Server Market, 1996-2010 -30% -27% +8% +23% Revenue (%) -$20B -$17B +$5.5B +$11B ‘97-’08 Change 14% Other Servers 45% 31% -31 Pts Unix Servers 32% -1 Pts 55% x86 Servers +22 Pts 23% Source: IDC Quarterly Server Tracker, Q4 2009

  8. WW x86 Server Shipment Forecast:x86 Servers Continue to Accelerating YOY Shipment Growth 4Q Rolling Shipments Q309 Q410 +1M Units +16% 15% 100% 45% Q308 Q309 -1.7M -21% 85% Server Deployments are Increasing Rapidly on Refresh Source: IDC Quarterly Server Forecast. June 2010

  9. The Technology Catalyst: WW Growth 2009-2013 Efficiency Complexity Elastic Scaling Off Premise 12.4x 8.4x 4.7x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x 1.3x Servers (M) Blades (M) Cores (M) VMs (M) Data (TBs) Transactions 10G Ports

  10. Server Installed Base: The Evolution From Physical to Virtual ’09-’13 CAGR Servers WW Virtual Server IB 31.5% WW Server IB 0.6% 6.5% WW Server Shipments Virtualization Leaves its Mark and Primes the Market for Change Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009

  11. Virtualization is the Foundational Platform for the Datacenter WW Installed Workloads Virtualized • More than half of all workloads (51%) will be virtualized by the end of 2010 • Two-thirds (69%) by 2013 • Only 12.8% of all physical servers are virtualized in 2009 • VM densities continue to rise predictably • Averaging 6 VM’s per physical server in 2009 and 8.5 in 2013 2.1% Servers 12.8% Servers 22.3% Servers

  12. 1.4M VMs 15M VMs 8.2 VM Cross Over 7.7 7.1 6.1 5.3 4.2 3.3 3.0 WW Server Virtualization Shipment Forecast, 2005-2013 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 21.6% Shipments 5% Shipments

  13. New Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration Customer Spending ($B) 56 million virtual machines by 2012 Virtualization Management Gap

  14. Virtualization is Foundation for Cloud Consolidate Automate Provision Cloud Virtualize 10% 20% Self Provision 90% Metering & Chargeback Metering & Chargeback 18% Mobility Mobility Mobility Hypervisor Hypervisor Hypervisor Hypervisor 45% Sites 18% Market 20% of Virt. Sites 90% of Virt. Sites 10% of Virt. Sites Cloud Internal vs. External Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009

  15. IT Optimization by the Numbers: Houston We Have a Problem Server HW RE Support P&C System SW Staff Q. What were the top three areas of savings? (N=400) % of Responses % of Annual Spend -5% -8% +17% -15% -9% +20% Costs Drop 25% but 80/20 Rule Still Applies Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009

  16. Who’s Embracing the Cloud Q. Rate utilization of public cloud over next 3 years (1-10 Scale)? • Cloud is divisive concept with SMB and mature virtualization site favoring • SMB’s consuming SaaS applications • Startups and enterprises with large scale Web infrastructures • Enterprise developers with one-off projects • Compute intensive tasks Total <500 Employees 500-4,999 5,000+ <15% 15-<50% >50% Virtualized Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)

  17. Workloads in the Cloud Q. Which applications will you run in Cloud in 3 years: Bus. Processing 32% • Workloads remain the critical pivot point in the datacenter • Virtualization is hot and it impacts cloud adoption profiles • Users with high rates of business change favor cloud models DSS 18% VOIP 16% Private IT Infra 13% App. Dev. 14% Tech. 8% Collaboration 31% Agnostic email 41% Web Infra 21% Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)

  18. Server Workloads Topology 18 Workloads in 7 Workload Categories Web Infrastructure Business Processing Web Infrastructure • Streaming Media • Web Serving App. Development IT Infrastructure • File & Print • Networking • Proxy/Caching • Security • Systems Management Industrial R&D Business Processing • ERP • CRM • OLTP • Batch Collaborative • E-Mail • Workgroup Decision Support • Data Warehousing/Mart • Data Analysis/Mining App. Development IT Infrastructure Collaborative Decision Support Technical Source: IDC Server Workloads 2009

  19. Three layers of cloud computing Workloads Platforms ERP email CRM OLTP Collaborative Decision Support Web App. Dev. Streaming Security Caching Networking File Sys Mgmt Technical Network Storage Storage Network Server IT Cloud Services Cloud Applications Software as a Service (SaaS) Cloud Platform Platform as a Service (PaaS) Cloud Infrastructure Infrastructure Services (IaaS)

  20. Actual Mileage May Vary: Migration Starting Point 39% 41% $14.0B $17.6B PaaS SaaS 22% $13.3B IaaS $16 $44.9 Billion Data Analysis email Data Mining Collaborative Streaming ERP Web CRM App. Dev. OLTP Technical Caching Sys Mgmt Security Networking File Serving Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009

  21. Cloud Implementation Help Q. Who will help build out your private cloud? • Larger companies and leaders favor internal IT • Smaller orgs and laggards favor server vendors • Virtualization vendors are broadly favored • Those planning private clouds are most likely to favor Internal IT Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)

  22. Cloud Leadership Q. Who is the leading vendor? • Comparing mature and understood (virt) with unknown (cloud) • The evolution to private cloud will be led by traditional IT • Traditional IT suppliers lag in Public cloud • Larger orgs name IBM • SMB favors Google, Amazon and Salesforce 50% 45% 55% Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)

  23. Attitudes Towards Convergence Q. Most appeal w/ convergence? • End-users rate likelihood of converged adoption at 3.6 of a 10 scale • The sever will be the focal point for IT convergence • Larger companies, leaders and leading virtualization adopters favor most • Service providers more likely to favor network led convergence 3.3 3.9 3.6 Source: IDC Enterprise Platforms Survey, Jan 2010 (N=255)

  24. Lower Cost of Computing Per Unit of Work New Business Cycle for ITConvergence Reigns for the next 10 years Transactional applications and Database ERP, Analytics and Datamarts Integrated architecture Converged Infrastructure & Private Clouds Integrated architecture Mainframe/minicomputer Integrated architecture Web Virtualization Business Value Collaborative Unix/RISC Application Development Modular architecture Modulararchitecture X86 Servers Virtualization Public Clouds Modular architecture File/Print and Networking Microservers? Compute/Memory Boards? 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995

  25. Intersection Technology Offerings Traditional IT Hosting Outsourcing Public Cloud Private Cloud Traditional Servers Converged Infrastructure Micro Servers Homogeneous Infrastructure: multi-node computing design including processor, memory, network, storage, P&C in a single chassis Heterogeneous Infrastructure: Server, storage and network resource pools assigned as needed to business services

  26. Market Segments Continue to Shift:Understanding the Impact of Cloud Units % Server Spend Traditional IT • Traditional IT • Heterogeneous • Legacy & Proprietary • Private Cloud • Bladed and Virtualized • Consolidation Play • Existing Workloads • Public Cloud • Homogeneous • Dense/Low Cost • New Workloads Private Cloud 93% 70% 81% Public Cloud 20% 17% 6% 10% 2% 1%

  27. Cloud and Convergence, 2013The Whole is Smaller than the Parts Streaming Security eMail Web $10B $11B File&Print Caching Workgroup Networking 2013Mkt Not $144B But $123B CAGR (10-13 ) Not 3.2% But -2.0% Storage Systems $32 Billion Networking Equipment $62 Billion Server Hardware $50 Billion

  28. Cloud and Convergence, 2013 A View of a Bifurcating Server Market $52B: Bifurcation Small Site 19% Non x86 38% Scale-out 9% Datacenter 34%

  29. An Alternative View (or is it)Workload Optimization $52B: Optimization BA 12% OLTP/DB 15% BI 12% Infrastructure 61%

  30. Essential Guidance • CIOs pay attention to time, money and people • Downturns drive inflections and change on recovery • Workloads are the critical pivot point for cloud and convergence decisions • Many political barriers remain in the DC • User demographics change constantly

  31. Questions Matt Eastwood meastwood@idc.com Twitter: matteastwood +1 (508) 935-4503

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