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A Japanese Perspective on Space Deterrence and the Role of the US-Japan Alliance

A Japanese Perspective on Space Deterrence and the Role of the US-Japan Alliance. Kazuto Suzuki Hokkaido University kazutos@juris.hokudai.ac.jp. Space systems are…. Critical for socio-economic welfare Indispensable for modern military systems

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A Japanese Perspective on Space Deterrence and the Role of the US-Japan Alliance

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  1. A Japanese Perspective on Space Deterrence and the Role of the US-Japan Alliance Kazuto Suzuki Hokkaido University kazutos@juris.hokudai.ac.jp

  2. Space systems are… • Critical for socio-economic welfare • Indispensable for modern military systems • Vulnerable to intentional and unintentional damage • Difficult to defend; difficult to deter attacks upon • Most effectively defended through use of non-space means to increase the costs of attack

  3. Vulnerabilities in Space • Domain constraints do not permit substantially meaningful physical protection • High velocity due to orbital speeds of approximately 28,000 kilometers per hour mean virtually any impact can kill a satellite • Space objects, human-origin debris, intentional attacks • Solar flares, electromagnetic pulsesalso threats

  4. Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Attacks • Incentives to attack may be substantial: • Space assets are valuable, scarce, vulnerable • Attacks are non-lethal (hence possibly seen as less escalatory), difficult to attribute, and could accord big first-mover advantages • Attribution can be difficult due to blind spots • Kinetic ASATs: create large debris clouds • International condemnation of China after 2007 test

  5. Non-Kinetic ASAT Attacks: Cyber Attacks on Space Systems • Taking over satellites via hacking is possible • Command and control systems for commercial and civilian satellites are relatively vulnerable • Taking over a satellite can make it a space weapon • Radio-frequency problem: • Not enough bandwidth for encrypted transmission leads to use of open frequencies which are more vulnerable

  6. Non-Kinetic, Non-Cyber ASAT Attacks • Methods include: • Jamming: Interferes with up-link/down-link communications by overpowering the signals through radiofrequency interference so as to prevent transmissions from getting through • Spoofing: Intentionally feeds false information to devices or ground-based receivers by intercepting and overriding weak signals traveling between space and earth • Dazzling: Temporarily or permanently damages functions of reconnaissance satellites using directed energy (lasers) • Rendezvous and docking technology (also known as: killer satellites)

  7. Deterrence in Space is Very Difficult • Tit-for-tat is not an attractive option: • Different degree of dependency on space for various actors • Creation of space debris if kinetic attacks employed is also unappealing • Deterrence by denial is difficult: • Shooting down all the ground-based kinetic attacks—costly, hard • Protecting all radio transmissions—very hard • Protecting all sensors—very hard

  8. Deterrence in Space? • Life expectancy of satellites is long, posing challenges for modernizing space asset architectures • Space-based assets can be decades-old • Upgrading hardware to meet new challenges almost impossible • Software upgrades often limited by hardware capacity • Attribution problem: • Knowing the real motivations for actions in space extremely difficult • Satellite failure could be caused by malfunction, debris

  9. A Tallinn Manual for Space? • Tallinn Manual 1.0: • A non-binding set of rules drafted by experts from around the world for use in applying international laws of armed conflict to cyberspace • Tallinn Manual 2.0: • Updated version suggests military retaliation to cyber-attack is not legitimate unless authorized by United Nations • If attack perpetrated by non-state actor, victim requires consent of state where non-state actor is based to retaliate • MILAMOS: Tallinn Manual for space is now being drafted

  10. The Role of the U.S. – Japan Alliance in Space Deterrence • Increasing transparency and shaping norms: • Space Situational Awareness (SSA) • Information sharing with international community • International rule-making • Resilience/deterrence through (a measure of) denial: • Increasing interoperability for replacing and recovering assets • Deterrence through punishment: • Prepare and plan for military actions to convince adversaries not to take actions against our space assets

  11. Conclusions • Importance and vulnerability of space assets needs to be better understood • Especially in Japan • Alliance plays key roles for: • Transparency • Resilience • Deterrence through punishment • Space attacks cannot be deterred by space means alone • Deterrence in space requires cross-domain deterrence

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