International Workshop on Population Projections using Census Data

1. International Workshop onPopulation Projectionsusing Census Data 14 – 16 January 2013 Beijing, China

2. Introduction to the workshop Objectives To provide participants with an opportunity to: 1) understand the importance of population projections as a planning tool; 2) learn how to generate population projections at a national level, including the use of available software packages.

3. Introduction to the workshop Agenda of the workshop Session 1: Introduction Session 2. Main Population Projection Methods Session 3: Establishing the Base Population Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and migration Session 6: Population projections for national populations Session 7: Final Matters

4. Session I:Introduction • The need of population projections • Population projections for Asia: Background and challenges • Population projections: the experience of China

5. The Need for and the Utility of Population Projections

6. The Need for and the Utility of Population Projections The future is unknown…Why population projection? Who needs/uses population projections? Producers of population projections

7. Why population projection? Planning for people’s needs Education Health system Social Security Employment Infrastructure Housing Understanding the determinants of population change

8. Future is unknown, but we know some basic demographic trends Demographic processes are long-term Lasting impact of past and current changes Momentum Component of population change Fertility, Mortality and Migration Demographic transition as guiding principle Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

9. The Demographic Transition Animated

10. Transformation of age structures:=> From pyramid to (almost) rectangle.=> From young populations to older populations

11. World Population Ageing

12. Transformation of survival:=> From early deaths to late deaths.

13. Changing Survival

14. What Population Projections Can Reveal

15. Ageing - Growth of Population 65+

16. China - Burden of Ageing

17. Ageing – Planning in South Australia Source: http://www.planning.sa.gov.au/instantatlas/ageingatlas/atlas.html

18. Urbanization Estimates Projections

19. Urban Planning - Water Supply 1975 2025 Source: http://www.grailresearch.com/pdf/ContenPodsPdf/Water-The_India_Story.pdf

20. Planning for Education Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk

21. Who needs, who usespopulation Projections? Main users Central governments (ministries of education, health, planning, etc.) Regional and local governments Private sector (demand, supply) Academics

22. Producers of population projections Governments: NSO, other national institutions Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE (UN Regional Commission) International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP biennially) Others: Private Sector, international research institutions (IIASA)

23. Population Projections in the Context of Asia

24. Population Projections in the Context of Asia Challenges Very low fertility level in some countries – where does the trend go? Urbanization Varying availability and quality of data (census, civil registration and sample survey)

25. Fertility Trends in Asia Replacement level

26. Rapid Urbanization

27. Data Availability – the Good News Since the start of the 2010 Round of Censuses in 2005, 197 countries or areas have already carried out a census (out of 238), having enumerated an estimated 89% of the world’s population. (as of 1 January 2013) http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/censusclockmore.htm Censuses are regularly held in most countries and areas in Asia. Out of 50 countries or areas, 41 have already conducted a census and 5 are expected to do it in 2014. (as of 1 January)

28. Data Availability – the Bad News Civil registration is still a problem in most developing countries. Not just a challenge for statistical data collection, but a challenge to public administrative systems. The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since the 1970s.

29. Coverage of Birth and Death Registration in Asia Birth registration Death registration

30. Getting Ready: Software, Textbooks, Data Sources

31. Software to be used in the workshop Projection software RUPEX v. 1.46 Spectrum 4.5 Demographic analysis tools PASEX MORTPAK v. 4.3 General software Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

32. Textbooks, Manuals Siegel, Swanson (2004) Preston et al. (2000) Arriaga (1994 and later) United Nations Manuals Software Manuals

33. Textbooks

34. US Census Bureau: Arriaga

35. Data sources National data United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD) Other

36. UN Data Sources: UNSD http://data.un.org/

37. UN Data sources: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm

38. Additional tools and data Demographic software PADIS http://www.padis-int.org/index.php?c=main&a=view&id=130&lan=en Applied Demographic Toolbox http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~eddieh/toolbox.html Demographic data Human Mortality Database [www.mortality.org] Human Fertility Database [www.humanfertility.org/] Human Life-Table Database [www.lifetable.de/] INDEPTH [www.indepth-network.org/]

39. Enjoy the workshop !